Saturday, September 08, 2018

TOS Buy/Sell scan results for week of 9/7/2018 and the new picks for the coming week

These are ThinkOrSwim scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
The daily signals are best for the one week of results while the Weekly signals should probably be considered longer term swing trades, I, MAY, do like a monthly or quarterly update to see how they did on the longer term time frames.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors. The systems I show are the only ones that tested out positive over the last 20 years on the SPY.
The "TTM SQUEEZE" is just for information purposes as it's not a signal, it merely alerts you to the possibility of a big move coming, either higher or lower.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same. There are seven markets that average less than 200K shares a day, five are Country ETF's which I include for obvious reasons, EIS as it would signal a new war in the middle east first, EIRL, IDX, EWK, EPU, two currencies, FXF, which is the Swiss Franc, and FXE, which is some kind of Frontier market currency called the Euro, and GCC, a commodity fund.


NOTES:
So, the 13 daily LONG signals last week produced an 46.43% win rate while the 59 short signals produced a 74.67% win rate, the 18 long signals on the weekly came in at 15.63% while the 17 weekly sells came in at 80.86%.

This week we have 16 new LONG signals on the daily vs 63 new SELL signals, and 16 new weekly buy signals vs 40 new sell signals, the ones that stand out, of course, are the 103 combined sell signals, I can't help but think of EWZ and TUR which rose Friday for absolutely no reason at all, and with the signals leaning so far in one direction they will probably, magically, move in the opposite direction.



The Q's and /NQ continue to make higher highs and lows (an uptrend), however they broke a little short term uptrend line from the previous two lows. If they aren't finished with their fun they, COULD, be setting up a little knee kick bear flag similar to that in March with an Equal Move objective some where around the January high.


The 120 minute /NQ chart has a very clear three waves lower with little consolidations in between the equal moves, they, COULD, be setting up for some more consolidation/bear flag and then a bigger move lower, or they, MAY, have found some support here, which, MIGHT, lead to a move higher into a double top or two B, which could either mean new ATH's, or setting up the final failure high that leads to the 90% correction. 

Daily signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 0winners
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 100% winners
MACD Histogram buy signal: winners
4 Hour MACD buy signal: 75winners
MACD Histogram sell signal: 0winners
4 Hour MACD sell signal: 100winners
RSI 5 80/50/20 LE: % winners
RSI 5 80/50/20 SE: 100% winners
Positive ROC(13) Cross: 0% winners
Negative ROC(13) Cross: 89% winners
8 SMA closed above 21 SMA: 0winners
8 SMA closed below 21 SMA: 33% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 100% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 75% winners
UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): 100% winners
UNIVERSAL OSC SE: 85% winners
BULLISH ENGULFING: 50% winners
BEARISH ENGULFING: % winners

The multiple buy signals were: % winners
The multiple sell signals were: 90% winners

Here's the new DAILY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: DBA, EWZ, TUR
PPS sell signal for Monday: RSP

Positive MACD Histogram Cross:
       "     4 HOUR MACD Cross:
                                               
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: DIA, EIRL, EWD, EWO, EWT, IWF, IWM, RSX, SMH, TAN, XLB, XLY
        "     4 Hour MACD Cross: ACWI, EPHE, FXE, VGK, EWG, EWN, VEA, XLV

(SETTINGS: LENGTH: 5 AVERAGE TYPE: SIMPLE)
RSI CROSSED ABOVE 20 LE: EIDO, EWT, EWW, EZA, GCC, IDX, MDY, THD
RSI CROSSED BELOW 80 SE: VXX, XLU

Positive ROC (MOMENTUM)(13) Cross:
Negative ROC(13) Cross: ACWI, EIRL, EIS, EUFN, EWL, EWQ, IYT, TAN, THD, VGK, XLE, XLU, XME

8 SMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 SMA:
8 SMA CLOSED BELOW 21 SMA: EEM, EPI, EWI, EWP, FXI, GCC, IGE, JNK, TAN, XME

HULL MA(21) changed to green: DBA, EWZ, XLP
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: /CL, /ES, /NQ, /YM, DBC, DIA, EWT, GLD, IWF, OEF, QQQ, SMH, SPY, USO, VTI, XBI, XLV, XLY

UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): UUP, XLP
UNIVERSAL OSC SE: /GC, EUFN, EWD, EWO, GCC, IYR, XLE

BULLISH ENGULFING:
BEARISH ENGULFING: /GC


"TTM SQUEEZE" : /GC, DBA, KRE, TUR, XME
1 hr "TTM SQUEEZE": XLP

Multiple buy signals: DBA, EWZ, XLP
Multiple SELL signals: /GC, ACWI, DIA, EIRL, EUFN, EWD, EWO, GCC, IWF, TAN, XLE, XLV, XLY


Weekly signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 0% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 0% winners
MACD Histogram buy signal: 0% winners
MACD Histogram sell signal: 100% winners
RSI 5 80/50/20 LE: 0% winners
RSI 5 80/50/20 SE: 100% winners
Positive ROC (13): % winners
Negative ROC(13):  % winners
8 SMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 SMA: 0% winners
8 SMA CLOSED BELOW 21 SMA: 100% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 25% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: % winners
UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): 0% winners
UNIVERSAL OSC SE: 100% winners
BULLISH ENGULFING: 100% winners
BEARISH ENGULFING: 66% winners

The multiple buy signals were: 0% winners
Multiple SELL signals were: 100% winners

Here's the new WEEKLY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: $TNX
PPS sell signal for Monday: RSP

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: ACWI, EWD, THD, XLB
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: ACWI, EIDO, EWC, IDX

(SETTINGS: LENGTH: 5  AVERAGE TYPE: SIMPLE)
RSI CROSSED ABOVE 20 LE: VXX
RSI CROSSED BELOW 80 SE: /ES, /NQ, EIS, IWD, IWF, IWM, MDY, OEF, QQQ, RSP, SPY, UNG, VTI, XBI, XLK, XLY, XRT

Positive ROC(13)(MOMENTUM) Cross: $TNX
Negative ROC(13) Cross: ACWI, EWC, EWT, TLT, XHB, XLB

8 SMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 SMA: EPHE, FXF
8 SMA CLOSED BELOW 21 SMA: EWA, XHB

HULL MA(21) changed to green: $TNX, XLB
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EIDO, EWS, EWZ, IDX, ILF, TLT

UNIVERSAL OSC LE (13): EWD, SMH, USO, XLB
UNIVERSAL OSC SE: EWC

BULLISH ENGULFING: XLP
BEARISH ENGULFING: /CL, DBC, USO, XRT

"TTM SQUEEZE": IDX

Multiple buy signals: $TNX, EWD, XLB
Multiple SELL signals: ACWI, EIDO, EWC, IDX, TLT, XHB, XRT

MORE NOTES:.

TECHNICAL RECOMENDATIONS FROM INVESTING.COM ON THE MULTIPLE DAILY AND WEEKLY SIGNALS



Last week, the sells on the hourly and daily MDS signals were 100% correct, accept for TUR, the MWB's were 100% WRONG, with the MWS being 100% RIGHT, so two out of three being correct is not to bad.
So this week, FOR THE MOST PART, Investing.com agrees with the signals, the MDB is neutral other than XLP, it mostly agrees with the MDS other than XLV down at the bottom, it vemetly DISAGREES with the EWD and XLB on the MWB, and mostly agrees with the MWS signals.
So I'm inserting this to remind myself to check XLV, EWD, and XLB to see who won, the signals or Investing.com.

John Carter at Simple Options, Sheridan Options, Option Alpha, Project Options, and others, recommend SELLING options into VOLATILE markets, using like Iron Condors, short strangles and straddles, short Flys, etc etc, so every week I will list the ETF's that have an IV PERCENTILE RANK above 50, that means they have Implied volatility in the upper 50% as compared to their typical IV of the last 52 weeks.

IV PERCENTILE RANK ABOVE 50, listed from highest rank to lowest rank:
EWZ, ILF, EZA, GDX, EWL, EWA, USO, EWN, EWH, VGK, EWM, FXE, TUR, RSX, EWG, EWW

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(WILDERS 13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE on the daily chart, NONE on the weekly charts. CAUTION: Over sold can become, MORE, over sold ..................

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM calls into RSI(WILDERS 13) over bought conditions, IE OVER 80 on the daily charts: NONE
On the weekly charts: NONE


The $BPGDM RENKO stayed at 17% of the 49 components on a Point and Figure buy signal, and is showing no signs of moving higher (YET!). 


Neither the IYT nor DIA has had much movement at all, the yield curve looks like it has very very slightly turned lower. 


A weekly chart shows the DIA out performing since the 2016 election, with the whole thing sideways for the last year.

DISCLAIMER NOTE: "COULD", "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", "IDEA", "DARES", "LOCK", "TENDED" etc etc etc, are called "DISCLAIMERS", meaning I don't know what I'm doing and you would be well advised by your financial Adviser to completely IGNORE any thing I've said or posted here ............ please read the complete disclaimer down at the very bottom of the site ............

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