Friday, August 11, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/11/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

Well, the $NAAD chart certainly changed it's configuration this week, the A/D's are now leading the $COMPQ lower, as they are waaaaayyy lower than the July lows, and have crashed through their 200 SMA, while the $COMPQ is still quite a bit above it's July low. I guess if you are the eternal optimist you would say the NasDOGS are showing strength, or you could be a pessimist like me and say Da Boyz are gaming a few of the Big Dogs in order to hold the index up. Time will tell won't it ..............


On Da Udder hand the $NYA looks much better, staying above it's 50 SMA and not violating the July lows, the $NYA is actually quite close to breaking the July lows. 

We still have three on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, it's still the  $USD, and TLT. while the $TRAN joined them in the sell party.The good news is that TLT is only 20 cents away from a new buy signal, and GLD joined the BUY ranks this week.
The DIA look the best in the four majors, the $COMPQ and the SPY held their 50 DMA, for the moment at least. 


The IWM is by far the worst looking of the four, BUTT, it held the 200 SMA, AND, an "Equal Move" scenario has it hitting right on that 200, about $136, plus the STOCH is very over sold, ssooooooooo ............................. I leave it to your judgement ............


We are still on FIVE sells on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", the same five as last week, the important thing I see is how fast the $BPNYA, $BPSPX, and $BPCOMPQ crashed down through the 20 and 50 MA's, they are still on buy signals as they crashed faster than the MA's could catch up, this is indicative of my talking about how a few of the big caps are holding the indexes up.


The sectors still look good as there is only one on sell, the poor old staples, XLP, which has those poor little companies like Proctor and Gamble, Colgate, etc etc .........


Welp, it finally happened, GDX closed OUTSIDE the "Expected Move", closing at $23.15 vs the expected move of at the top end of $22.88. I assume a LOT some times, so I ASSUME that you know when the "Expected Move" is to $22.88 and I say I sell OUTSIDE the range, you go to the $23 strike, so the loss was not that bad.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is "expected" to be $23.80 and the lower bound is $22.50.
We are still in the descending triangle, and butting right up against the upper trend line. I guess I have to be obvious and say it MIGHT provide some resistance, or a break above COULD lead to the break out the bulls have been waiting for. 


A terrible week in my 80 markets I keep track of, only ten markets were higher, and those were mostly defensive items like PM's, XLP, TLT.


That's my "market monitor", you can see a boat load of RED on that bottom line, that means that despite the markets closing higher Friday a lot of the breath items were LOWER than Thursday, IE, a negative divergence. It probably don't mean a thing, as the FED loves to squeeze the shit out of any one trying to short horrible breath numbers. 


We had four markets close on 20 day highs this week vs 13 last week, GDX, GLD, TLT and VXX,  that table is the performance of the 13 from last week, sigh, that's one of those weeks you know is coming but it doesn't make you feel any better ...........
Of the two that closed on 20 day lows last week EIS got killed, down 3.89%. and FXF was up 1.22%, so, we came out ahead on shorts for a change. 


That's a partial list of the 20 day lows this week, 28 of them, quite a list on that first page, like EEM, IWM, IYR, KRE, RSP, SMH, the ones not shown are VEA, VGK, XHB, XIV, XLB, XLE, XLY, and XME. 


XIV got crushed this week to lead the front page of the losers, it leads going up and it do lead going down, feast or famine. Our worst major showed up, IWM down 2.67%, then SPY -1.33%, NasDOGS next, QQQ down 1.08%, with the big dogs the winner, DIA down .85%.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment, I imagine its all earnings stuff, only 102 of them were higher.


And here's the leaders of the losers. 

AKS closed lower on the week, it broke the May low and is done, I thought it would do better as with those two bozo's talking about throwing Nukes around I figured it would go up with the idea of all the steel that would be needed to replace the sky scrapers, steel stud houses, cars, trucks, trains, etc etc, that would be lost, but I guess investor's don't see it that way.

Every one of the buy/sell signals last week were loser's, ACCEPT, for the negative MACD cross, all of those were winners, I'm hesitant to post another list, but I'll try it one more week:

PPS buy signal for Monday:FXE

PPS sell signal for Monday: UUP

Negative MACD Cross: XLF, IDX, EWP, EUFN

Positive MACD Cross: NONE

Positive ROC Cross: XLP, TUR, THD, TAN, RSX, GCC, BND

Negative ROC Cross: Exactly the same as the Negative MACD above

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: THD, EPU

Close below T-Line: XLU

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