Thursday, August 31, 2017

MONTHLY WRAP UP FOR 8/31/2017


Humft.... I don't "DO" biotech, so of course it's a complete surprise to me that they were the best performer of my 80 markets for the month of August, XBI up 8.62%, however it's NO surprise to me that GDX and SLV are following right behind at 8.56% and 6.25%, then ANOTHER surprise with Putin in fourth, RSX up 4.05%, GLD was ninth at 2.89%, then our second best industry was SMH, up 2.45%.
Then the next surprise as BONDS were the second best ASSET class in back of the PM's, TLT up .98%, if you exclude utilities, XLU up 2.27%, emerging markets were next, EEM up 1.96%, then TECH stocks were 21st, QQQ up 1.56%, real estate, IYR, up .56%, then the SPY was up a whooping .02%, and then, well, we have to go to the next list ..........


I thought sure the biggest loser would be the same one as always, VXX, but in a surprise it was XIV, oil took it on the chin this month with OIH, USO, and XLE on the first page of the "winners", banks sucked this month with KRE and XLF down 5.25% and 2.41%, GCC would be the worst asset class, commodities down 1.62%, then cash, UUP down .21%, along with our other two major indexes, IWM down .36% and the DIA down .17%, the little Dogs and the Big Dogs both sucked this month. Quite a divergence between the equal weight SP 500 RSP, down .79% compared to that massive UP move in SPY.
We were almost EXACTLY half and half for the month, with 39 losers and 41 winners, ONLY 42 % components are above their 50 DMA, all in all I'd say this was a pretty crappy month unless you happened to be in the right sector.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, you notice the big red block in the list above in the number 2 through the number 9 spot, they have been losing consistently for the last YEAR, while with the exception of VXX in the winners list up above they have been consistently WINNING for the last year.


These are the markets that closed on one month highs to end the month, before I get all excited I want to remind myself of this:


These closed on 20 day highs last month, eight losers and three winners, but I'm SURE it will be different in September, right? RIGHT???


These are the big winners in the SP 500 for the month, and the biggest surprise is that AA was the winner, up 17.70%, after they split the company I don't even look at it any more, this may explain part of the rise in AA:


That's a chart of aluuummiiiinum prices for the month from Kitco. 


Here's the loser's for the month in the SP 500, consumers are not buying shoes, those fancy watch thingeys, oil, toys, cable TV, credit cards, HP computers, and most important, that stinking Campbell's soup, that, WAS, the single most over valued POS in the SP 500, it's pulled back some 28% from it's high in February, so it's only horrendously over valued now with a 26 TTM P/E. 

Saturday, August 26, 2017

TOS SCAN RESULTS FOR LAST WEEK AND NEW PICKS FOR THE COMING WEEK

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.

Last week:
4 of the 6 buy signals for the PPS worked for a .666% win rate, only oil, USO and DBC, sucked, and surprisingly, 2 of the 3 sell signals worked, for a "Sign of the Devil" win rate again, only IYR was a loser.
The MACD signals were 100% losers, all sell.
The ROC was a big winner again with 5 of the 6 buy signals working and the single sell signal, XLP, working as well, way to go ROC!
9 of the 12 T-Line buy signals worked, while 2 of the 3 sell signals worked, so the T-Line gets a "way to go" as well!

Here's the signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: EWU, VGK, EWP, IWM, XLE, EUFN, EWK, OIH, XIV, EWO

PPS sell signal for Monday: UNG

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: NONE

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: EWD, EWC

Positive ROC Cross: IYR, EWG, EIRL

Negative ROC Cross: EWM, DBC, XLK, EWT, SMH

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: EWU, EWL, VTI, VOO, VGK, RSP, SPY, EZU, EWP, EWA, XLF, XLE, EUFN, XLV, EWK, OIH, EWN, XIV

IWM had a "confirmation", meaning it closed above the T-Line for the second day in a row, a rule of thumb would be to have the same set up for the new signals above, but, use your own discretion, the end of week results are based on the single signal.

Close below T-Line: UNG

HULL MA changed to green: EMU, VTI, VGK, RSP, EWJ, EWH, EWP, IWM, IGE, XRT, EWK, OIH, EWN, EWO

HULL MA changed to RED: SLV, UNG

Multiple buy signals: IWM, EWU, VTI, VGK, RSP, EWP, XLE, EUFN, OIH, XIV, EWO

Multiple SELL signals: UNG

OF NOTE: Friday had the HULL and T-LINE MA buy signals for some major indexes like RSP, SPY, VOO, IWM, VTI, VGK, XLF, XLE, OIH, XIV, the beaten down retail sector, XRT, had a new HULL buy signal, while the major winner of this year, SMH, had a ROC sell signal. 

Friday, August 25, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/25/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

The $NAAD's and $NYAD's look the same as last week, so instead I put up a chart of the SPX to show how awful it was this week, we opened flat on Monday with a nice candle, then gapped up and put on a trend day on Tuesday when the CIA, FBI, NSA and Antifa all said they were going to kill Trump, then we gapped down on Tuesday and took back half of Mondays candle when Trump said he would hide until he could shut down the Government if he didn't get his wall, then gapped up on Wednesday when Ryan and McConnel started crying about not being able to RAISE the debt ceiling if Trump did that, this after just a few years ago they shut down the Government on Osama Bin Balama for the exact same reason, we proceeded to put on a horrible bearish engulfing bar after most traders realized what I've been saying for years, that there is no difference between the Democan's and the Republicrat's in Washington, they are all the same fricking A-holes, we then gapped up and put on a horrible bar on Friday after we had the horrible durable goods report that showed a drop of almost 7%, as it would probably keep Grandma Yelling on the side lines for ten more years. 

I would note that the last time we shut down the Government the markets LOVED it, as we saved a ton of money not paying those over blown wages for worthless items.
Another note, what ever happened to those days of Yore when the Secret Service and FBI used to arrest and jail people who threatened the life of the President?


(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up set by StockCharts.com)

We still have the same three on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50,  the  $USD, $TRAN and the IWM. The 20 SMA on the $COMP, SPY and $NYA is heading south on all of them, the TLT got stronger, and the DIA is easily the strongest of the majors.



"The all important Bullish Percent indexes" still look horrible, vs 5 last week, the BIG BOYS, $BPNYA, $BPSPX, and $BPCOMPQ, all improved by going FLAT, LOL, really good looking stuff. The $BPGDM did go on a buy signal this week, so at least the only one that counts to me did some thing good.


XLB, XLY, XRT and XLV joined XLE, XLI, XHB on sell signals this week, meaning seven of the 12 sectors are on sell, I mean, really, that's GOOD, honest .........

Whew, escaped again this week, GDX got above the upper "Expected Move" on Friday but managed to close under it at $23.41, so we picked up both premiums again. The STOCH has been over over bought since August 11, but it can probably stay that way longer, of if Jim Paulsen was following GDX he'd say it will go up FOREVER!!


The "expected" move on the upside next week is "expected" to be to $24 on the nuts and the lower bound is $22.82, meaning the lower strike is 22.50.


Big week for the markets, Geeze, if we can just get more people in the Deep State to say they are going to kill Trump, they must like that idea in other Countries as none of our majors made the first page, accept MY major, GDX up 2.09%, our best major was the Little guys, IWM up 1.45%, then the SPY at .76%,  Big Dogs, DIA up .70%, with the NasDOGS bringing up the rear at .52%.

We had exactly 20 stocks close on 20 day highs this week vs 6 last week, all six from last week were HIGHER this week for a 100% win rate, WOOOO HOOOOO, I'm mouthing off and celebrating before I get to the losers, hahahahahahaha, five of those made the list above,  GDX, AGAIN, TLT, XLU, ILF.


That's a partial list of the 20 day lows this week, 25 of them vs 28 last week,  the ones not shown are XLF, EWD, IWF, EWL and ACWI.
Of the 28 from last week 17 finished lower this week for a win rate of 60%, which is PROBABLY the first winning week we've had on the short side in since I don't know when, so that may signal a slight change in the markets. 



Every stinking one of the shorts from last week, all 28 of them, finished HIGHER this week, so after the brief short victory last week, it goes back to not paying to be short in a dull market.
Only one stock closed on 20 day lows, and it's more of a commodity, the USD, UUP, thank god for that, we can't possibly lose much on that thing.


I almost forget, we did have some losers, but only 7, USO, XLP, DBC, and DBA were all lower because of the WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC BOOM, GCC was flat, woo hoo, the dollar was down because the Deep State DIDN'T kill Trump ..............

Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, the only reason FCX was up 8% was because I'm NOT in it, sigh ...........


And here's the leaders of the losers. It's obvious to me that the typical American can't afford to buy Jam, Hormel hot dogs, groceries from Kroger, soup from Campbell, any thing from Conagra, and the little kiddies are obviously going with out breakfast based on GIS, MDLZ, and K, sigh, hell, it's so bad they can't even afford to buy stuff from COST, double sigh .............


Friday, August 18, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/18/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

Last week we were talking about the $NAAD's going through the July while the $COMPQ was holding up, this week we bounced off the May lows and then turned around and crashed through the May lows, and yet, STILL, the NasDOGS continue to magically hold up above the JULY lows. 
The green lines show how in June the $NAAD's made new HIGHS while the $COMPQ was pulling back, then both of them went to new highs in July, the current configuration is just the OPPOSITE of that one. 


The $NYA continues to look much better, its actually the opposite of the $NAAD's as they are above the July lows while the $NYA is testing those lows.

(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up set by StockCharts.com)

We still have three on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, it's still the  $USD and $TRAN. the IWM joined the sell party while the TLT joined the BUY party.
In case you were wondering the support I talked about in IWM last week did NOT hold, as it lost it's 200 SMA support. 


We are now on nine sells on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes" vs 5 last week, the BIG BOYS, $BPNYA, $BPSPX, and $BPCOMPQ, finally joined the sell party this week,  along with $BPDISC. $BPGDM is right on the verge of a new buy signal.


The only sector on sell last week, XLP, just wiggled into a buy on Friday by 8 cents, in the mean time XLE, XLI, XHBall went on sell signals, with XLB and XLV knocking on the door .........


GDX tested that down sloping trend line of Thursday, and FAILED to close above it, then it gapped up above it on Friday and proceeded to put on one UUUUUUUUU-gilly looking BEARISH ENGULFING candle. In days of Yore this was a HORRIBLE prelude to further losses, but who knows in these times.
We did mange to close inside the "Expected Ranges" and collect our massive short options.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is "expected" to be $23.53 and the lower bound is $22.33.


This was actually a much better week than last week, but NOT for OUR majors, all those Udder World ETF's were the winners this week, leaching off of our weakness as Da Boyz abandon the US and move over seas. We did get one, tha's ONE, sector on the front page, the XLU, up 1.41% for the week.

We had six markets close on 20 day highs this week vs 4 last week, GDX, GLD, TLT, XLU, ILF, and EPU,  only one from last week was higher, TLT, and that was only .15%.


That's a partial list of the 20 day lows this week, 25 of them vs 28 last week,  the ones not shown are XLF, EWD, IWF, EWL and ACWI.
Of the 28 from last week 17 finished lower this week for a win rate of 60%, which is PROBABLY the first winning week we've had on the short side in since I don't know when, so that may signal a slight change in the markets. 



AMLP is the winner of the loser's this week, I have NO IDEA why this thing is going down, well, other than we supposedly have a Nat gas over supply, it has a nice 8% yield, so I'm surprised the desperate chasers of yield have not been holding it up. Our worst majors made the first page, IWM down 1.14%, DIA .99%, GDX .95%, QQQ down .61%, with SPY winning the race to the bottom only down .58% for the week.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment, I imagine its all earnings stuff, only 179 of them were higher this week vs 102 last week, so a little divergence there.


And here's the leaders of the losers. 

These are scans of my 80 ETF markets.
7 of the 9 buy signals were higher this week, whoo hooo, better than the week before, six of the seven ROC signals worked, only GCC failed, FXE was the other loser, unfortunately the sell signals worked just the opposite, with five of the six going higher, XLF was the only winner.

PPS buy signal for Monday: USO, THD, RSX, EWW, EWM, DBC

PPS sell signal for Monday: , XLP, UUP, IYR

Negative MACD Cross: IYT, EIRL

Positive MACD Cross: NONE

Positive ROC Cross: VWO, UNG, THD, EZA, EWW, EWM

Negative ROC Cross: XLP

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: VWO,USO, TUR,THD,TAN, ILF, IDX, EWZ, EWW,  EMM, EWI, EEM, DBC

Close below T-Line: UUP, UNG, EIRL

Friday, August 11, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/11/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

Well, the $NAAD chart certainly changed it's configuration this week, the A/D's are now leading the $COMPQ lower, as they are waaaaayyy lower than the July lows, and have crashed through their 200 SMA, while the $COMPQ is still quite a bit above it's July low. I guess if you are the eternal optimist you would say the NasDOGS are showing strength, or you could be a pessimist like me and say Da Boyz are gaming a few of the Big Dogs in order to hold the index up. Time will tell won't it ..............


On Da Udder hand the $NYA looks much better, staying above it's 50 SMA and not violating the July lows, the $NYA is actually quite close to breaking the July lows. 

We still have three on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, it's still the  $USD, and TLT. while the $TRAN joined them in the sell party.The good news is that TLT is only 20 cents away from a new buy signal, and GLD joined the BUY ranks this week.
The DIA look the best in the four majors, the $COMPQ and the SPY held their 50 DMA, for the moment at least. 


The IWM is by far the worst looking of the four, BUTT, it held the 200 SMA, AND, an "Equal Move" scenario has it hitting right on that 200, about $136, plus the STOCH is very over sold, ssooooooooo ............................. I leave it to your judgement ............


We are still on FIVE sells on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", the same five as last week, the important thing I see is how fast the $BPNYA, $BPSPX, and $BPCOMPQ crashed down through the 20 and 50 MA's, they are still on buy signals as they crashed faster than the MA's could catch up, this is indicative of my talking about how a few of the big caps are holding the indexes up.


The sectors still look good as there is only one on sell, the poor old staples, XLP, which has those poor little companies like Proctor and Gamble, Colgate, etc etc .........


Welp, it finally happened, GDX closed OUTSIDE the "Expected Move", closing at $23.15 vs the expected move of at the top end of $22.88. I assume a LOT some times, so I ASSUME that you know when the "Expected Move" is to $22.88 and I say I sell OUTSIDE the range, you go to the $23 strike, so the loss was not that bad.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is "expected" to be $23.80 and the lower bound is $22.50.
We are still in the descending triangle, and butting right up against the upper trend line. I guess I have to be obvious and say it MIGHT provide some resistance, or a break above COULD lead to the break out the bulls have been waiting for. 


A terrible week in my 80 markets I keep track of, only ten markets were higher, and those were mostly defensive items like PM's, XLP, TLT.


That's my "market monitor", you can see a boat load of RED on that bottom line, that means that despite the markets closing higher Friday a lot of the breath items were LOWER than Thursday, IE, a negative divergence. It probably don't mean a thing, as the FED loves to squeeze the shit out of any one trying to short horrible breath numbers. 


We had four markets close on 20 day highs this week vs 13 last week, GDX, GLD, TLT and VXX,  that table is the performance of the 13 from last week, sigh, that's one of those weeks you know is coming but it doesn't make you feel any better ...........
Of the two that closed on 20 day lows last week EIS got killed, down 3.89%. and FXF was up 1.22%, so, we came out ahead on shorts for a change. 


That's a partial list of the 20 day lows this week, 28 of them, quite a list on that first page, like EEM, IWM, IYR, KRE, RSP, SMH, the ones not shown are VEA, VGK, XHB, XIV, XLB, XLE, XLY, and XME. 


XIV got crushed this week to lead the front page of the losers, it leads going up and it do lead going down, feast or famine. Our worst major showed up, IWM down 2.67%, then SPY -1.33%, NasDOGS next, QQQ down 1.08%, with the big dogs the winner, DIA down .85%.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment, I imagine its all earnings stuff, only 102 of them were higher.


And here's the leaders of the losers. 

AKS closed lower on the week, it broke the May low and is done, I thought it would do better as with those two bozo's talking about throwing Nukes around I figured it would go up with the idea of all the steel that would be needed to replace the sky scrapers, steel stud houses, cars, trucks, trains, etc etc, that would be lost, but I guess investor's don't see it that way.

Every one of the buy/sell signals last week were loser's, ACCEPT, for the negative MACD cross, all of those were winners, I'm hesitant to post another list, but I'll try it one more week:

PPS buy signal for Monday:FXE

PPS sell signal for Monday: UUP

Negative MACD Cross: XLF, IDX, EWP, EUFN

Positive MACD Cross: NONE

Positive ROC Cross: XLP, TUR, THD, TAN, RSX, GCC, BND

Negative ROC Cross: Exactly the same as the Negative MACD above

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: THD, EPU

Close below T-Line: XLU

Friday, August 04, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/4/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

No, this is not last weeks chart, honest, really, it just looks the same ..... the markets are just doggie poop, August is probably a good month to take your vacation with every one else. Actually, this is a little worse than last week, but no problem, the worse it gets the more inclined the FED is to buy every stock in the NasDOGS .....


We still have three on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, it's still the GLD, $USD, and TLT. $USD had a big up day on Friday with the payroll report, if this is the start of an uptrend it all over for gold. IWM remains on buy but looks terrible, $COMPQ had a nice doji right on the 50 day SMA, Trannies finally turned up the last three days, TLT is on sell but price is sitting just above the 200 SMA. 


We moved to FIVE sells on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", from three last week, $BPHEAL and $BPINDY joined the $BPSTAP, $BPINFO and good old $BPGDM. We are going to find out pretty soon if the  Bullish Percent indexes really are "ALL IMPORTANT", as the $BPNYA, $BPCOMPQ and $BPSPX, currently all on buy signals, are literally CRASHING, meaning they are all being driven higher by just a few MEGA caps, with the majority of the components being on point and figure SELL signals.


We moved back to only two sectors on sell, XRT and XLE moved to buy signals on Friday, XLU and XLP are the only ones on sell. 


GDX closed inside the "Expected Move", AGAIN, this week, so, wooo hoooo, we escaped another week with a win, although "they" made it tough on Friday before just barely closing above the lower range.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is "expected" to be $22.88 and the lower bound is $21.76, and, like I say every week, I'll continue to sell calls and puts outside those areas until they start taking me out.
One thing of note on that chart is we've been making a descending triangle, lower highs since the start of the year, and a break of that lower trend line around $21, COULD, send it shooting lower back to the $12.55 "range" on a MEASURED move from the high in 2016.
It surely won't happen though, right? RIGHT?? RIGHT???


Another decent week in my 80 markets I keep track of, 46 of the 80 were higher vs 52 last week, and, AGAIN, only one of our majors made the first page, and that was, SURPRISE, AGAIN, the Big Dogs, DIA up a massive 1.17% for the week vs 1.16% last week, hahahahaha, I have no idea what happened in Italy and Brazil this week as they were numero one and two for the week, XLF came in third with most of the gain on Friday when interest rates on the 10 year rose 1.75% to 2.267%. You had to go to the third page to see our next major winner, SPY up a paltry .20%, barely a bid ask/spread. You have to go to the next sector to see the other two, that's called the LOSERS section.


We had 13 markets close on 20 day highs this week vs 11 last week, DIA was the leader, and XLF and OEF showed up, I guess our good payroll report made Europe move more than us. 
Of the 11 that closed on 20 day highs last week we only had four winners on the week, for a lousy 36.36% win rate, they were DIA, EWJ, EWP and FXE. Only two closed on lows this week, EIS and FXF, FXF was the only winner from last week with KRE and UUP finishing higher.  


Metals got crushed this week to lead the losers front page this week, the winner was EIS, I have no idea why it got ripped the last few days. Most of the metal damage was done Friday, XBI was down again, IWM was our major loser, down 1.23%, with the NasDOGS just barely making the losers list, QQQ down .13%.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment, I imagine its all earnings stuff.


254 stocks were higher this week vs 251 last week, which is about, hhhhmmm, aaaahhhhh, close to HALF, I lost my ass in AKS as it was down ONE CENT, sigh, wad ever ................

PPS buy signal for Monday: TUR, IYT, XHB, UUP

PPS sell signal for Monday: GDX, GLD, XLP, FXE

Negative MACD Cross: XLK, EWA, XLY

Positive MACD Cross: EGPT

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