Friday, August 11, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/11/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

Well, the $NAAD chart certainly changed it's configuration this week, the A/D's are now leading the $COMPQ lower, as they are waaaaayyy lower than the July lows, and have crashed through their 200 SMA, while the $COMPQ is still quite a bit above it's July low. I guess if you are the eternal optimist you would say the NasDOGS are showing strength, or you could be a pessimist like me and say Da Boyz are gaming a few of the Big Dogs in order to hold the index up. Time will tell won't it ..............


On Da Udder hand the $NYA looks much better, staying above it's 50 SMA and not violating the July lows, the $NYA is actually quite close to breaking the July lows. 

We still have three on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, it's still the  $USD, and TLT. while the $TRAN joined them in the sell party.The good news is that TLT is only 20 cents away from a new buy signal, and GLD joined the BUY ranks this week.
The DIA look the best in the four majors, the $COMPQ and the SPY held their 50 DMA, for the moment at least. 


The IWM is by far the worst looking of the four, BUTT, it held the 200 SMA, AND, an "Equal Move" scenario has it hitting right on that 200, about $136, plus the STOCH is very over sold, ssooooooooo ............................. I leave it to your judgement ............


We are still on FIVE sells on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", the same five as last week, the important thing I see is how fast the $BPNYA, $BPSPX, and $BPCOMPQ crashed down through the 20 and 50 MA's, they are still on buy signals as they crashed faster than the MA's could catch up, this is indicative of my talking about how a few of the big caps are holding the indexes up.


The sectors still look good as there is only one on sell, the poor old staples, XLP, which has those poor little companies like Proctor and Gamble, Colgate, etc etc .........


Welp, it finally happened, GDX closed OUTSIDE the "Expected Move", closing at $23.15 vs the expected move of at the top end of $22.88. I assume a LOT some times, so I ASSUME that you know when the "Expected Move" is to $22.88 and I say I sell OUTSIDE the range, you go to the $23 strike, so the loss was not that bad.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is "expected" to be $23.80 and the lower bound is $22.50.
We are still in the descending triangle, and butting right up against the upper trend line. I guess I have to be obvious and say it MIGHT provide some resistance, or a break above COULD lead to the break out the bulls have been waiting for. 


A terrible week in my 80 markets I keep track of, only ten markets were higher, and those were mostly defensive items like PM's, XLP, TLT.


That's my "market monitor", you can see a boat load of RED on that bottom line, that means that despite the markets closing higher Friday a lot of the breath items were LOWER than Thursday, IE, a negative divergence. It probably don't mean a thing, as the FED loves to squeeze the shit out of any one trying to short horrible breath numbers. 


We had four markets close on 20 day highs this week vs 13 last week, GDX, GLD, TLT and VXX,  that table is the performance of the 13 from last week, sigh, that's one of those weeks you know is coming but it doesn't make you feel any better ...........
Of the two that closed on 20 day lows last week EIS got killed, down 3.89%. and FXF was up 1.22%, so, we came out ahead on shorts for a change. 


That's a partial list of the 20 day lows this week, 28 of them, quite a list on that first page, like EEM, IWM, IYR, KRE, RSP, SMH, the ones not shown are VEA, VGK, XHB, XIV, XLB, XLE, XLY, and XME. 


XIV got crushed this week to lead the front page of the losers, it leads going up and it do lead going down, feast or famine. Our worst major showed up, IWM down 2.67%, then SPY -1.33%, NasDOGS next, QQQ down 1.08%, with the big dogs the winner, DIA down .85%.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment, I imagine its all earnings stuff, only 102 of them were higher.


And here's the leaders of the losers. 

AKS closed lower on the week, it broke the May low and is done, I thought it would do better as with those two bozo's talking about throwing Nukes around I figured it would go up with the idea of all the steel that would be needed to replace the sky scrapers, steel stud houses, cars, trucks, trains, etc etc, that would be lost, but I guess investor's don't see it that way.

Every one of the buy/sell signals last week were loser's, ACCEPT, for the negative MACD cross, all of those were winners, I'm hesitant to post another list, but I'll try it one more week:

PPS buy signal for Monday:FXE

PPS sell signal for Monday: UUP

Negative MACD Cross: XLF, IDX, EWP, EUFN

Positive MACD Cross: NONE

Positive ROC Cross: XLP, TUR, THD, TAN, RSX, GCC, BND

Negative ROC Cross: Exactly the same as the Negative MACD above

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: THD, EPU

Close below T-Line: XLU

Friday, August 04, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/4/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

No, this is not last weeks chart, honest, really, it just looks the same ..... the markets are just doggie poop, August is probably a good month to take your vacation with every one else. Actually, this is a little worse than last week, but no problem, the worse it gets the more inclined the FED is to buy every stock in the NasDOGS .....


We still have three on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, it's still the GLD, $USD, and TLT. $USD had a big up day on Friday with the payroll report, if this is the start of an uptrend it all over for gold. IWM remains on buy but looks terrible, $COMPQ had a nice doji right on the 50 day SMA, Trannies finally turned up the last three days, TLT is on sell but price is sitting just above the 200 SMA. 


We moved to FIVE sells on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", from three last week, $BPHEAL and $BPINDY joined the $BPSTAP, $BPINFO and good old $BPGDM. We are going to find out pretty soon if the  Bullish Percent indexes really are "ALL IMPORTANT", as the $BPNYA, $BPCOMPQ and $BPSPX, currently all on buy signals, are literally CRASHING, meaning they are all being driven higher by just a few MEGA caps, with the majority of the components being on point and figure SELL signals.


We moved back to only two sectors on sell, XRT and XLE moved to buy signals on Friday, XLU and XLP are the only ones on sell. 


GDX closed inside the "Expected Move", AGAIN, this week, so, wooo hoooo, we escaped another week with a win, although "they" made it tough on Friday before just barely closing above the lower range.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is "expected" to be $22.88 and the lower bound is $21.76, and, like I say every week, I'll continue to sell calls and puts outside those areas until they start taking me out.
One thing of note on that chart is we've been making a descending triangle, lower highs since the start of the year, and a break of that lower trend line around $21, COULD, send it shooting lower back to the $12.55 "range" on a MEASURED move from the high in 2016.
It surely won't happen though, right? RIGHT?? RIGHT???


Another decent week in my 80 markets I keep track of, 46 of the 80 were higher vs 52 last week, and, AGAIN, only one of our majors made the first page, and that was, SURPRISE, AGAIN, the Big Dogs, DIA up a massive 1.17% for the week vs 1.16% last week, hahahahaha, I have no idea what happened in Italy and Brazil this week as they were numero one and two for the week, XLF came in third with most of the gain on Friday when interest rates on the 10 year rose 1.75% to 2.267%. You had to go to the third page to see our next major winner, SPY up a paltry .20%, barely a bid ask/spread. You have to go to the next sector to see the other two, that's called the LOSERS section.


We had 13 markets close on 20 day highs this week vs 11 last week, DIA was the leader, and XLF and OEF showed up, I guess our good payroll report made Europe move more than us. 
Of the 11 that closed on 20 day highs last week we only had four winners on the week, for a lousy 36.36% win rate, they were DIA, EWJ, EWP and FXE. Only two closed on lows this week, EIS and FXF, FXF was the only winner from last week with KRE and UUP finishing higher.  


Metals got crushed this week to lead the losers front page this week, the winner was EIS, I have no idea why it got ripped the last few days. Most of the metal damage was done Friday, XBI was down again, IWM was our major loser, down 1.23%, with the NasDOGS just barely making the losers list, QQQ down .13%.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment, I imagine its all earnings stuff.


254 stocks were higher this week vs 251 last week, which is about, hhhhmmm, aaaahhhhh, close to HALF, I lost my ass in AKS as it was down ONE CENT, sigh, wad ever ................

PPS buy signal for Monday: TUR, IYT, XHB, UUP

PPS sell signal for Monday: GDX, GLD, XLP, FXE

Negative MACD Cross: XLK, EWA, XLY

Positive MACD Cross: EGPT

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