Friday, July 07, 2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)
The big index, $NYA, has been chopping up and down for five weeks now, just like all of them, but the $NYAD's are virtually the same as they were five weeks ago, and have barely dropped with the last two day dump. 

The $COMPQ has dropped about 2.7% over the last five weeks, much worse than the $NYA, and yet the $NAAD's are higher than they were five weeks ago. 
So, even with the drop, "breath" is holding up and, SHOULD, lead to a move higher. 
Naturally, nothing is for certain. 

I just wanted to point out Wednesday on my "Market Monitor" of over 2800 stocks, it was an UP day but a HORRIBLE breath day, as the third line up from the bottom had one hell of a lot of RED on it, leading to the big dump on Thursday. It doesn't always work, but this one was a big divergence. 

We moved to three sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, with GLD joining the $USD, and $CRB from last week. The $COMPQ and VWO are both on the verge of new sell signals. 

We moved back down to four sells from five last week on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes",  the $BPENER joined the buy party, unbelievable as that might seem. With the risky energy sector catching a bid the good old staples, $BPSTAP is right on the verge of a sell signal as they move out of those nasty old stoogie things.  I'm not going to mention $BPGDM, oh, rats, I guess I did, it's crashing, with only three of the 23 gold stocks higher this week, BVN, GFI and RGLD. The good payroll report really put the guints to them, as the dollar and interest rates went higher.

This was the first week in quite a while that we closed outside the "expected" move on GDX, we opened right on the bottom level at the open Friday morning, but it wasn't enough to turn the sold put side out of the money.

The "expected" move on the upside next week is 21.88 and the lower bound is $20.54, I'll continue to sell calls and puts outside those areas until they start taking me out. 

The sectors are a little shocking this week, we moved from two to four on sell, XLK and XLY joined the ever weak XLE and XRT. XLU is not looking good and neither is XME. 

None of our majors showed up on the first page of the winners in my 80 markets this week, DBA, which NEVER shows up, was the winner this week, up 3.77%, with the consumers soon to be the BIG LOSERS! IYT continues it's dominance, up 2.29%, and is waiting on the INDU to come up and confirm a DOW theory buy signal. XLF loves higher interest rates as they can screw that same consumer all the more, DIA was our major winner, up .68%, then SPY at .31%, then the NasDOGS, QQQ up .11%, with the little guys being the big losers this week, IWM down .44%.

IYT was the only market to close on a 20 day high last week, and is the only one again this week.

Despite another"feeling" good this week we had 18 makrets close on 20 day lows vs four last week, probably the largest difference in the sells vs buys I've seen in my 80 markets. AND, FINALLY, 3 of the four from last weeks were down this week, woooo hooooo, a 75% win rate. 

  This is the first time this has ever happened, but exactly HALF of the 80 markets were lower this week, naturally SLV, GDX and GLD are in the top four with OIH, TUR was down I think because their leader backed Trump at the G-20 meeting, hahahahahahaha ....... just kidding there. TLT was down 2.14% as interest rates were higher, ten year yields were up .91 or 3.95% on the week. That also didn't help IYR and XLU, the dollar was higher on the week but not enough to explain the oil weakness.

Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment. Earnings start to get under way next week so that's another reason to lay low.

278 stocks in the SP were higher this week, these are the worst of the worst, I have no idea what a QRVO is or what they do, but they obviously DIDN'T do it this week. Hhhmmmm, both STX and WDC are on the list, are disk drives starting to slow up?? Two of the FANG's are on the first page, GOOG and NFLX, is the bloom off the rose??


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