Monday, July 31, 2017

MONTHLY AND YTD WRAP UP FOR 7/31/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

These are the top 20 winners in the 80 markets that are in my "Market Monitor", the thing that stands out, to me, is the over whelming amount of GREEN on the two pages, IE winners win over long time periods, the monthly winners are at the top and the YTD winners on the bottom.
None of our major markets are on the front page at the top, the best performer was the NasDOGS, QQQ up 4.10%, then the DIA at 2.86%, SPY at 2.25%, then the little guys bringing up the rear, IWM just barely higher at .26%.
EWZ was the best country ETF, up 11.77%, our best sector was oil, USO up 11.62%, metals and mining was second way down in 19th, XME up 4.87%.
YTD our best major made the first page with the NasDOGS in 16th, QQQ up 20.89%, our best sector was biotech, XBI up 32.07%, the best country ETF was Turkey, TUR up 36.53% for the year, after Erdogan said he was Trump's best friend. SMH was another sector on the first page up 19.82%, our next best major was way back on the third page, DIA up 10.73% with the SPY immediately behind them at 10.40%, the little guys brought up the rear, IWM up 4.94% for the YTD.



The was only 10 losers the past month, IYT was the big stand out, down 3.18%, the dollar was down 2.59%, and in a surprise KRE was down, strange as TLT was down meaning interest rates were UP, which is supposed to be good for the banks, XLF was up 1.62%, so quite a difference in the composition of the two.
There are only 12 markets YTD in the red, oil was the winner in the monthly but the big loser YTD, USO down 12.29%, the dollar is down 9.03%, which means should be UP, but I'm not going to mention that as it confuses me. The worst country ETF was RSX, down 5.70%, which speaks to their one horse economy I guess. 



Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 with the same sequence as above, I have no interest in any of them so sift through them yourself if that's your thing. I completely missed FCX, and NEM is basically dragging the GDX higher all by itself on the monthly, for some reason that Madison Ave. advertising agency, FB, is on both lists, the first Ad agency in history to have a market cap larger than any SP 500 company that actually produces some thing.



The same thing with the losers, one interesting thing I notice is that in looking at all of them down at the bottom the YTD loser's have a lot of GREEN in the weekly performance column, probably the start of some rotation, there's actually some big winners in that bunch, hhhhmmmmm ........................

Friday, July 28, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 7/28/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

I was going to show the SPY again this week, but it finished the week higher by 1, that's ONE, ONE STINKING PENNY, SO SCREW IT! That's the $NAAD up there, they actually broke that center low so they've made a lower low in comparison to the $COMPQ, so the index is actually holding up a little better, which is not what you want but it makes the bulls happy campers. The $NYAD, $NAUD, etc etc etc, blah blah blah, kind of all look like the $NAAD's, nothing to look at just yet. 


We still have three on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, but they changed around a little bit, it's still the GLD and $USD, with TLT joining them, $CRB just moved to a new buy signal on Friday. The dollar actually had what looks like a nice bottoming candle on Friday, right around $93 which is prior lows from May and June in 2016. I only mention it because it "should" not be good for gold if it starts to move up. I'm surprised that Europe and other emerging markets haven't been screaming bloody murder at the weak dollar.  


We moved to only three sells on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", the three are $BPSTAP, $BPINFO and good old $BPGDM, $BPDISC moved back into a buy signal on Thursday and Friday.


Speaking of the miners, GDX closed inside the "Expected Move" again this week, so, wooo hoooo, we escaped another week with a win.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is "expected" to be 23.56 and the lower bound is $22.26, and, like I say every week, I'll continue to sell calls and puts outside those areas until they start taking me out, which they've been getting pretty close to doing. Why try and choose a direction when it makes a dumb ass move like it did after the FED didn't do a DAMN thing other than NOT say they WEREN'T going to continue to RAISE rates, which I woulda thunk was BAD for gold, but I'd a thunk wrong.


There could be double resistance coming up in the next week or two from both the expected move and an upper resistance line coming in from last February.


We moved back to only four sectors on sell, as XLK and XLY moved to buy signals on Thursday and Friday, both XRT and XLE are trying like crazy to move to a new buy signal, while XLU and XLP look like doggie poop. 


Another decent week in my 80 markets I keep track of, 52 of the 80 were higher, and, AGAIN, only one of our majors made the first page, and that was, SURPRISE, the Big Dogs, DIA up a massive 1.16% for the week, replacing the perrenial winning NasDOGS, QQQ, who were actually, GASP, down an equally MASSIVE .19%, losing out to the second place SPY which was up that mind blowing one penny, but beating the poor little guys as the IWM was down .41% which means we don't like risky assets while continually making new ATH's!
Oil was the big winner, USO up 8.89%, because the dollar was higher .04% on the week ......... that's a joke but for some reason I didn't hear you laughing .....


We had 11 markets close on 20 day highs this week vs 8 last week, oil was on the list along with gold and shock of shocks, XLP, watch those staples, there could be some rotation going on.
Of the 8 that closed on 20 day highs last week we had five winners on the week, for an 62.5%% win rate. Only three closed on lows this week, FXF, KRE and  good old UPP, we had 50% winners in the losers last week with VXX up a whopping 9 cents on the week and UUP, eeeeeerrrrrr. NOT, going UUP that is. 


 A few of our sectors showed up in the losers front page this week like IYT (the WINNER of the LOSERS), SMH (surprising!!), XBI, XLV, XME, XHB, XIV, XLU, XLB, XLI, not to mention the small caps and the middies, that's actually more weakness than I thought, hhhhmmmmmm ............
Speaking of IYT, I heard some rumblings that we moved back into a DOW Theory SELL signal, now, it's my understanding we did NOT, the way I read it is they both made new highs in mid July, a DOW Theory BUY signal, and since then the DIA continues to make new highs while the IYT is dumping, so, yea, the Transports look very bad but until the DIA turns around and confirms a new low under like the July lows at least, it's still on the buy signal. That's just my thoughts ...............
Of course, it don't mean diddly squat any way, but it gives the MSM some thing to talk about other than Russia. And speaking of Russia, Jim Rodgers thinks RSX is the buying opportunity of a life time.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment, its all earnings stuff.


249 stocks were lower this week, which is about, hhhhmmm, aaaahhhhh, HALF, it's strange to see STX and WDC on the list because Inky said things are just fricking GREAT! FLS will be a buy one of these days, and what happened to GLW, is AAPL not selling as much junk???


This is my new FUN stock since I don't "DO" AA any more, I watch the comments board on FinVIZ, hahahahahahahaha, what a bunch of A-holes, very passionate crowd they are, they either hate it or love it, I always thought that we are kinda, like, in this together, US against the brokers and ANAL-yst, but these guys seem to like to get personal about it. It is kind of double bottoming in this "area", I saw a LOT of the peeps talking about buying MORE if it got under $5.80, so, well, they get to buy MORE! I only bring this up because the markets will not go down until more people do STUPID things like that!!!!! On Da udder side I haven't heard enough of them asking why it's going down, IE, I'm loaded to the gills and I don't know whether to bail or not!!
It had a good earnings report and their "metrics" "seem" all right, but if it breaks that May low then it's $4, if it breaks that then its $3.50, and below that its $1.50, so people "could" have a LOT of chances to buy more!!
On Da Udder hand if Trumpy bans all imports of steel and makes every thing in America cost more it could go back to $25 lickity split!

Friday, July 21, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 7/21/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

The $NAAD, $NYAD, $NAUD, etc etc etc, blah blah blah, all look exactly like last week, just fine, so I'm not into wasting my time copying and pasting crap. 
The SPY closed with a Haning Man on Thursday and a red body Friday, which, in days of Yore, might portend weakness, but in days of FED, portend never ending new ATH's.
We DIDN'T close at all time highs this week, and here's the obvious reason why:


Unlike last week when we did close at ATH's this week we had good economic news, which the market obviously hates, well, it was good accept for the Empire and Philly FED reports, but who cares what the real economy is doing. 


Same three on sell signals in my 12 major markets as last week, 20sma below 50, with GLD, $USD, and $CRB, nothing more to say, it's all just great.  


We are still on four sells on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", the four are, waaa laaaa, the same as last week, $BPDISC, $BPSTAP, $BPINFO and good old $BPGDM.


Speaking of the miners, GDX closed EXACTLY on the upside target for the "Expected Move" at $22.41, so we escaped another week with a win.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is 23.04 and the lower bound is $21.78, and, like I say every week, I'll continue to sell calls and puts outside those areas until they start taking me out, which they've been getting pretty close to doing.


The sectors continue to be a little shocking as we moved from five to SIX on sell, XLU joined XLP, XLK, XLY, XLE and XRT, actually XLK went to a buy signal on Friday, by, ONE, lousy little penny! But, HEY, I guess every monster move starts with a penny .......


Another strong week in my 80 markets I keep track of, 53 of the 80 were higher, and, AGAIN, only one of our majors made the first page, ann d that was, AGAIN, the NasDOGS, QQQ up 1.4%, IWM was number two at .58%, then SPY at .54%, with the Big Dogs really being DOGS, DIA down on the week .34%.
GDX took the three spot this week but I just don't know how long it can stay strong because of this chart:


The dollar has just been awful, down 8% since the March high, it's in crash mode with the RSI 14 just now getting into over sold territory, the problem is that GDX is DOWN 12.5% in that same time period, I mean, the stinking thing should be FLYING!! What's going to happen to it should the dollar start to rally?? This is not good.

We had 8 markets close on 20 day highs this week vs 35 last week, and shock of shocks IYT did NOT close on a high, it fact it was the 2nd worst ETF this week down 2.79%. 
Of the 35 that closed on 20 day highs last week only seven were lower on the week, for an 80% win rate. Only two closed on lows this week, VXX and UUP. 


27 stocks were lower this week, quite a few of our sectors showed up like IYT, USO, KRE, XLI, XLF, banks struggled as the ten year yield was down again this week, 3.75% to 2.232%. It continues to be fuddle men about the dollar being down on the week AND USO being down, but, never underestimate the power of the FED to totally screw things up ............


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment.


178 stocks were lower this week vs 128 last week, these are the worst of the worst... ter's ... my god, doesn't CMG EVER clean their kitchens??

Friday, July 14, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 7/14/2017



(click on image for larger view, I hope)

Both the $NAAD with the $COMPQ at the top and the the $NYAD and $NYA at the bottom look terrific, couldn't be better best thing I've ever seen, the markets will NEVER go down, at least not in our life time.
We closed at all time highs going into the weekend, and here's the obvious reason why:

The economic reports absolutely sucked today, it keeps the FED on the side lines, WOOOO HOOOOOO ...............


Same three on sell signals in my 12 major markets as last week, 20sma below 50, with GLD, $USD, and $CRB, with the dollar down you woulda THUNK that gold and commodities would be on buy, ESPECIALLY, to feed the OBVIOUS world wide economic boom that the stock markets claim we are in, but, atlas, it's not to be in the current environment. 


We are still on four sells on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", the four are $BPDISC, $BPSTAP, $BPINFO and good old $BPGDM.


We closed just inside the "Expected Move" on the upside for the week, so we escaped another week with a win.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is 21.41 and the lower bound is $21.19, and, like I say every week, I'll continue to sell calls and puts outside those areas until they start taking me out.


The sectors continue to be a little shocking as we moved from four to FIVE on sell, XLP joined XLK, XLY, XLE and XRT, and XLU continues to look like doggie poop. 


This was probably the strongest week of the year in my 80 markets I keep track of, only one of our majors made the first page, QQQ up 3.16% on the tails of the shitty retail report, GDX was number two at 2.78% ( a "major" in my mind, hahahaha), then it was SPY way back in 50th spot up 1.42%, DIA up 1.03%, with IWM bringing up the rear at .88%, I don't know what their problem was as the ten year yield was down 3% on the week to 2.319%. 


We had 35 markets lose on 20 day highs vs only one the last couple of weeks, and, YES, IYT closed on another 20 day high this week.  
We had 35 markets close on 20 day highs this week vs only ONE the last couple of weeks, and, YES, that stock, IYT, closed on ANOTHER 20 day high this week. I could be GUESSING, but with the transports flying I get the feeling the vapid TRUMP trade seems to be back in play. 
Of the eighteen that closed on 20 day LOWS last week every single one of them was higher this week, so that continues to be just about the worst bet you can possibly make every week, that is, expected ANY THING to continue to the down side. 
Only two closed on lows this week, $USD and VXX. 


Only six stocks were lower this week, a VERY low number, I guess the IWM was down because XLF and KRE were down as as interest rates were lower and Wall Street couldn't screw the public as much.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment. Earnings start to get under way next week so that's another reason to lay low.


Only 128 stocks were lower this week, these are the worst of the worst... ter's ...


Friday, July 07, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 7/7/2017

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The big index, $NYA, has been chopping up and down for five weeks now, just like all of them, but the $NYAD's are virtually the same as they were five weeks ago, and have barely dropped with the last two day dump. 


The $COMPQ has dropped about 2.7% over the last five weeks, much worse than the $NYA, and yet the $NAAD's are higher than they were five weeks ago. 
So, even with the drop, "breath" is holding up and, SHOULD, lead to a move higher. 
Naturally, nothing is for certain. 


I just wanted to point out Wednesday on my "Market Monitor" of over 2800 stocks, it was an UP day but a HORRIBLE breath day, as the third line up from the bottom had one hell of a lot of RED on it, leading to the big dump on Thursday. It doesn't always work, but this one was a big divergence. 


We moved to three sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, with GLD joining the $USD, and $CRB from last week. The $COMPQ and VWO are both on the verge of new sell signals. 


We moved back down to four sells from five last week on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes",  the $BPENER joined the buy party, unbelievable as that might seem. With the risky energy sector catching a bid the good old staples, $BPSTAP is right on the verge of a sell signal as they move out of those nasty old stoogie things.  I'm not going to mention $BPGDM, oh, rats, I guess I did, it's crashing, with only three of the 23 gold stocks higher this week, BVN, GFI and RGLD. The good payroll report really put the guints to them, as the dollar and interest rates went higher.


This was the first week in quite a while that we closed outside the "expected" move on GDX, we opened right on the bottom level at the open Friday morning, but it wasn't enough to turn the sold put side out of the money.


The "expected" move on the upside next week is 21.88 and the lower bound is $20.54, I'll continue to sell calls and puts outside those areas until they start taking me out. 

The sectors are a little shocking this week, we moved from two to four on sell, XLK and XLY joined the ever weak XLE and XRT. XLU is not looking good and neither is XME. 


None of our majors showed up on the first page of the winners in my 80 markets this week, DBA, which NEVER shows up, was the winner this week, up 3.77%, with the consumers soon to be the BIG LOSERS! IYT continues it's dominance, up 2.29%, and is waiting on the INDU to come up and confirm a DOW theory buy signal. XLF loves higher interest rates as they can screw that same consumer all the more, DIA was our major winner, up .68%, then SPY at .31%, then the NasDOGS, QQQ up .11%, with the little guys being the big losers this week, IWM down .44%.

IYT was the only market to close on a 20 day high last week, and is the only one again this week.


Despite another"feeling" good this week we had 18 makrets close on 20 day lows vs four last week, probably the largest difference in the sells vs buys I've seen in my 80 markets. AND, FINALLY, 3 of the four from last weeks were down this week, woooo hooooo, a 75% win rate. 


  This is the first time this has ever happened, but exactly HALF of the 80 markets were lower this week, naturally SLV, GDX and GLD are in the top four with OIH, TUR was down I think because their leader backed Trump at the G-20 meeting, hahahahahahaha ....... just kidding there. TLT was down 2.14% as interest rates were higher, ten year yields were up .91 or 3.95% on the week. That also didn't help IYR and XLU, the dollar was higher on the week but not enough to explain the oil weakness.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I have no comment. Earnings start to get under way next week so that's another reason to lay low.


278 stocks in the SP were higher this week, these are the worst of the worst, I have no idea what a QRVO is or what they do, but they obviously DIDN'T do it this week. Hhhmmmm, both STX and WDC are on the list, are disk drives starting to slow up?? Two of the FANG's are on the first page, GOOG and NFLX, is the bloom off the rose??


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