Friday, June 16, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 6/16/2017

Congratulations to my nephew Dru Cauby on making the Utah All-State team in soccer, I thought it was quite an accomplishment as he's 6'5" tall, he made it on defense. He enters SUU next fall on a grant scholarship. 


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

We dropped to only two sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, that would be the $USD, and $CRB, IYR surged back to a buy signal off of the worst housing starts in eight months as I guess they think they can squeeze higher prices out of less inventory.

You can't hide the bull shit from "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", as we dropped to only ONE on a buy signal, the good old reliable $BPSTAP, and that was only by 16 cents, and the $BPMATE and $BPHEAL are both right on the cusp of a new buys. $BPCOMPQ, $BPSPX and $BPNYA continue to look awful, HOWEVER, at least the $BPNYA and $BPSPX turned higher this week, although both the 20 and 50 continue to trend DOWN .....


The sectors continue to look all right, with the same three, XLE, XME and XRT still on sell, XLF went to buy this week.  To XHB's credit at least it was lower on the lousy housing news Friday.


ONE of our majors showed up on the first page of the winners in my 80 markets this week, the DIA, up .42%, we had decent sector representation with TLT, IYR, XHB, XLI, IYT, XLU, and XBI showing up.


Only ONE market closed on new 20 day highs this week vs 22 last week, EWW, we had a lousy 40% win rate from last week, and remind me NOT to take QQQ, IWM, EEM and SPY the next time they close on a 20 day high on a Friday.

Two markets closed on 20 day lows, GDX and XME, a great week for metals, the two from last week, VXX and RSX, had continuation and closed 2.4 and 3.3% lower on the week.


There was 49 loser's on the week out of the 80 markets vs 51 last week, the QQQ, IWM and SPY were all members of this list, down 1.31, 1.00 and .32% respectively.


We closed almost to the gnat's ass on the "EXPECTED" move on GDX, but unfortunately it was on the LOWER end of the move, that gap up and then huge bearish engulfing candle came on Wednesday after the FED raised rates, but more importantly sounded a little hawkish, as I guess you get hawkish when CPI come in at NEGATIVE .1% vs POSITIVE .1% the prior month!!!?


Here's the "EXPECTED" move on GDX for this week, $22.78 on the upside and $21.34 to the down side. I will be selling calls and puts outside of those ranges, again. The $BPGDM was down about 9% this week with only 35% of the stocks in the index on P and F buys.
It needs to hold that trend line just under the close or it could be trouble, that bearish engulfing candle is the over riding item on the chart right now.


Another bad thing is that it triggered off a BBSqueeze in the red circle, to the DOWN SIDE, these "usually" last a minimum of eight candles, or there abouts ...


The $BPGDM Renko chart is on a PSAR just triggered a sell as well as being under the 8 sma, the MACD just triggered sell, and the GDX:GLD at the bottom continues to under perform, just makes you all excited about buying it.


It can't be good that the dollar and 10 year yields are both much lower since their highs around the start of the year while GDX is almost dead flat. At the left side of the chart you can see when the dollar and TNX both rose after the election into the start of the year GDX tanked.


One reason I'm screwing around with it is my main man, Rick Ackerman, is extremely bullish for the longer term, with a target from a monthly and weekly Fibonacci extension in that green circle that goes from the low in early 2016 to the high in August of 16' to the low in December of 16', it gives a price target of $37.97, NOT $38, but $37.97 .... hahahahahaha..........
  

Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, WFM was the winner as AMZN paid like a 30% premium for it, it was hilarious as the other 10 stocks in the "Grocery" sector went LOWER on the news that AMZN was going to be competing against them. I thought it was a pretty good buy, a hell of a lot better than paying $65 for WFM.

200 stocks were lower in the SP this week, I'm trying to figure out why KR is the leader of the pack?? Hhmmmmm, let me think about this ........
FCX is getting, ALMOST, where I might be interested in it again, that poor FOSL, I mean I could give a shit less, but now $9.20 when it was like $130 in 2014?? This is why I DON'T DO specialty retail, or ANY THING "Special", that I don't understand.
AA was one of my favorite trading stocks for well over a decade, but I have NO IDEA what it is any more after they split the company up, so they can go screw themselves ....................


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