Friday, June 30, 2017

WEEKLY, MONTHLY AND YTD WRAP UP FOR 6/30/2017

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

Regardless of the POS market we had this week, the QQQ were down, down, UP, down, down to finish the week DOWN 2.55%, regardless of that, that chart above is really very good, the best it's been for the NasDOGS in a long time, as the $NAAD's actually LED the markets to the UP side for a change, they made a new high in the green circle while the NasDOGS themselves pulled back, they made the high on the big up day on Wednesday and then fell back with the market the last two days.  
Now that I've said how fantastic it is we probably start into a two year BEAR market next week, hahahahahahahahaha .............


I had a lot of red on my Market Monitor today, that simply means that despite the HIGHER close on most of the indexes we had FEWER stocks going higher. I also want to point out that red box in the center, that's the number of stocks in the SP 500 that have a 14 RSI that are either over 80 or under 20, IE over bought or over sold, so with ZERO in both columns, it means, IMHO, you don't have shit to choose from to sell bear calls or bull puts against, just a bunch of crap if you ask me. 


We still have only two markets on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week,  20sma below 50, the $CRB and $USD, GLD does not look well as the 20 sma is curling to the down side.


The all important Bullish Percent indexes now has FIVE of the 12 indexes on SELL signals, the part is that the $BPCOMPQ and $BPSPX, FINALLY, moved back into BUY territory,  the big index, $BPNYA, is still on sell signal.
The $BPGDM was TRYING to claw into a buy last week but failed miserably, sigh ...........

The sectors still look all right, not great, only two are on sell, XLE and XRT,XLY is looking like it is about to join the sell party. XME just managed a new buy signal on Friday. 




These are the winners in my 80 markets I keep track of for the week (at the top), then the month in the middle, and the year to date winners at the bottom.
USO had a huge week, up 7.22%, has oil bottomed?? Banks, XLF and KRE, both over 3%, as 30 year yields moved up 4.64% for the week to 2.84%, WHICH, I won't be getting on a 30 year mortgage, I don't know who gets that rate.
As far as our majors go, I go know every one want to yell and sceam about how great they are, but only ONE major showed up on the first page of any of the list, the DIA in 18th spot at .87% on the monthly table, great work guys ................... we are letting the Furri-ners kick out asses!

Only ONE market closed  closed on new 20 day highs this week, IYT,  all three from last week got crushed this week, hahahaha, for a ZERO percent win week, IYR was down 1.79%, TLT2.08%, and XBI was down 3.9%, I thought Biotech was doing GREAT??

Four markets closed on 20 day lows this week, EFA, EWG, EWQ and EZU, of the seven that closed on lows last week only two, EWP and XLY, meaning the other five continued lower, for a 71% win rate, quite a turn around as it's usually been the ones going higher that have been winning. 




Only 36 losers this week vs 53 last week, NOW our majors start showing up with GDX in 3rd on the weekly chart at -3.9%, the QQQ right in back of them, down 2.55%, the NasDOGS also show up on the monthly chart, down 2.96%, GDX made all three charts, in 20th on the monthly and 15th on the YTD.




Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 with the same sequence as above, I have no interest in any of them so sift through them yourself if that's your thing.




The same thing with the losers, one interesting thing I notice is that in looking at all of them down at the bottom the YTD loser's have one HELL of a lot of RED in their six colums, ACCEPT, for the weekly column on the far left, there's only three red out of the WORST stocks in the SP 500 YTD. It would, APPEAR, that a bit of rotation is going on, as Do Boyz move out of Da winners and into the losers for the next quarter or maybe the next six months, who knows.

Friday, June 23, 2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

There is still only two sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, that would be the $USD, and $CRB, the only good thing I can say about the $CRB is it put on a tiny little green bar on Friday.


We moved up to four buys from only ONE last week on "The all important Bullish Percent indexes",  $BPSTAP was joined by $BPMATE, $BPHEAL and $BPINDY are both right on the cusp of a new buys. the good news is the 20 SMA has turned higher on $BPCOMPQ, $BPSPX and $BPNYA, so maybe they will catch up and confirm the sky high valuations in the majors.  


The sectors continue to look all right, with the same three, XLE, XME and XRT still on sell, and not looking any better, although XME is at least "trying" to make and effort. 


THREE of our majors showed up on the first page of the winners in my 80 markets this week, the only one NOT on the first page was the winner from last week, XBI was the big winners this week, up 12.16%, as the Republicrats showed they are obviously as big a crooks as the Democans, the NasDOGS were the big major winner, QQQ up 2.24%, right in back of MY major, GDX up 3.08%, then it was TLT up 1.13% as inwestors piled into safe assets, IWM .51%, then SPY up .20% at the bottom of the page.DIA in 23rd spot up ..08%, or about a spread on the bid/ask. we had decent sector representation with TLT, IYR, XHB, XLI, IYT, XLU, and XBI showing up.

Three markets closed on new 20 day highs this week vs ONE last week, TLT, IEY and, of course, XBI, the Republicrat campaign donation grab bag. I had 100 stinking percent LOSERS last week, as the only one last week, EWW, closed down on the week.

Despite things "feeling" good this week we had SEVEN makrets close on 20 day lows vs two last week, EIRL, EPHE, EWG, EWP, EZU, XLP and XLY. The two losers from last week, GDX and XME, naturally, had GREAT weeks with both over 3%. to even it up with 100% losers on BOTH sides, sigh .......


There was 53 loser's on the week out of the 80 markets vs 49 last week, any thing OIL related got slaughtered again this week as the Worldwide Economic Boom seems to be in full sail! I don't know why banks got hit so hard, KRE down 3.92%, as yields were LOWER on the week. Accept for oil stuff there doesn't appear to be one US related ETF on the first page, all foreign stuff accept for VXX and GCC.


Once again we closed almost to the gnat's ass on the "EXPECTED" move on GDX, this week though it was to the UPSIDE, the dollar was actually UP 8 cents but the lower yields helped out. The Hull MA moved to a buy signal and the MACD is one up day away from a new buy, so, NATURALLY, we probably go DOWN next week, and again, sigh .........


Here's the "EXPECTED" move on GDX for this week, $23.34 on the upside and $22.14to the down side. I will be selling calls and puts outside of those ranges, again. The $BPGDM was down about 10% this week with only 3% of the stocks in the index on P and F buys.
  

Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, there's a bunch of biotech on the list, ORCL had a good earnings report, FSLR was up on news of the "Solar Wall" that will burn any one attempting to cross the border .............


W"OW, the SPY finished HIGHER on the week, and we had 302 stocks in the index DOWN on the week vs on 200 stocks last week, is that a negative divergence or what??? BBBY led the charge lower after AMZN said they were going to move into shitty things .........


Friday, June 16, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 6/16/2017

Congratulations to my nephew Dru Cauby on making the Utah All-State team in soccer, I thought it was quite an accomplishment as he's 6'5" tall, he made it on defense. He enters SUU next fall on a grant scholarship. 


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

We dropped to only two sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, that would be the $USD, and $CRB, IYR surged back to a buy signal off of the worst housing starts in eight months as I guess they think they can squeeze higher prices out of less inventory.

You can't hide the bull shit from "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", as we dropped to only ONE on a buy signal, the good old reliable $BPSTAP, and that was only by 16 cents, and the $BPMATE and $BPHEAL are both right on the cusp of a new buys. $BPCOMPQ, $BPSPX and $BPNYA continue to look awful, HOWEVER, at least the $BPNYA and $BPSPX turned higher this week, although both the 20 and 50 continue to trend DOWN .....


The sectors continue to look all right, with the same three, XLE, XME and XRT still on sell, XLF went to buy this week.  To XHB's credit at least it was lower on the lousy housing news Friday.


ONE of our majors showed up on the first page of the winners in my 80 markets this week, the DIA, up .42%, we had decent sector representation with TLT, IYR, XHB, XLI, IYT, XLU, and XBI showing up.


Only ONE market closed on new 20 day highs this week vs 22 last week, EWW, we had a lousy 40% win rate from last week, and remind me NOT to take QQQ, IWM, EEM and SPY the next time they close on a 20 day high on a Friday.

Two markets closed on 20 day lows, GDX and XME, a great week for metals, the two from last week, VXX and RSX, had continuation and closed 2.4 and 3.3% lower on the week.


There was 49 loser's on the week out of the 80 markets vs 51 last week, the QQQ, IWM and SPY were all members of this list, down 1.31, 1.00 and .32% respectively.


We closed almost to the gnat's ass on the "EXPECTED" move on GDX, but unfortunately it was on the LOWER end of the move, that gap up and then huge bearish engulfing candle came on Wednesday after the FED raised rates, but more importantly sounded a little hawkish, as I guess you get hawkish when CPI come in at NEGATIVE .1% vs POSITIVE .1% the prior month!!!?


Here's the "EXPECTED" move on GDX for this week, $22.78 on the upside and $21.34 to the down side. I will be selling calls and puts outside of those ranges, again. The $BPGDM was down about 9% this week with only 35% of the stocks in the index on P and F buys.
It needs to hold that trend line just under the close or it could be trouble, that bearish engulfing candle is the over riding item on the chart right now.


Another bad thing is that it triggered off a BBSqueeze in the red circle, to the DOWN SIDE, these "usually" last a minimum of eight candles, or there abouts ...


The $BPGDM Renko chart is on a PSAR just triggered a sell as well as being under the 8 sma, the MACD just triggered sell, and the GDX:GLD at the bottom continues to under perform, just makes you all excited about buying it.


It can't be good that the dollar and 10 year yields are both much lower since their highs around the start of the year while GDX is almost dead flat. At the left side of the chart you can see when the dollar and TNX both rose after the election into the start of the year GDX tanked.


One reason I'm screwing around with it is my main man, Rick Ackerman, is extremely bullish for the longer term, with a target from a monthly and weekly Fibonacci extension in that green circle that goes from the low in early 2016 to the high in August of 16' to the low in December of 16', it gives a price target of $37.97, NOT $38, but $37.97 .... hahahahahaha..........
  

Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, WFM was the winner as AMZN paid like a 30% premium for it, it was hilarious as the other 10 stocks in the "Grocery" sector went LOWER on the news that AMZN was going to be competing against them. I thought it was a pretty good buy, a hell of a lot better than paying $65 for WFM.

200 stocks were lower in the SP this week, I'm trying to figure out why KR is the leader of the pack?? Hhmmmmm, let me think about this ........
FCX is getting, ALMOST, where I might be interested in it again, that poor FOSL, I mean I could give a shit less, but now $9.20 when it was like $130 in 2014?? This is why I DON'T DO specialty retail, or ANY THING "Special", that I don't understand.
AA was one of my favorite trading stocks for well over a decade, but I have NO IDEA what it is any more after they split the company up, so they can go screw themselves ....................


Friday, June 09, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 6/9/2017


(click on image for larger view, I hope)

I don't know what to say about the $NAAD's, they did NOT make new highs with the new ATH's on Thursday, and yet they moved higher against the huge down day on Friday, this market is being pretty flaky. 


The $NASI still looks like Dog, but it's improving ever so slowly.
The $NYAD's still look very strong.


We had some green in my Market Monitor on Friday, the good ones are way over on the last two green boxes on the right side, as both the SP 500 and NasDOGS
improved with the advancers even though both were down on the day. Also the green boxes in the center show the strength in the SP 500 despite the down day, unfortunately most of it is due to the fact that the SP gapped UP and then had pretty much a key reversal day to the down side, thus I don't have a lot of confidence of follow through on Monday, although you can never discount Grandma Yellin's printing presses.


We dropped to only three sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, that would be the IYR, $USD, and $CRB, we had five last week. GLD and the $TRAN just managed to eek out new buy signals on Friday, and IWM averted disaster by managing to go completely against the markets on Thursday and Friday, even with oil getting crushed, it's a miracle I tell Ya .......


You can't hide the bull shit from "The all important Bullish Percent indexes", as we dropped to only TWO on a buy signal, the good old reliable $BPSTAP, and that was only by 16 cents, and the $BPHEAL was even closer at only four cents. It's just incredible how bad the $BPCOMPQ, $BPSPX and $BPNYA continue to look, and amazing how they continue to go higher with fewer and fewer stocks. 


The sectors continue to look all right, with only XLE, XME and XRT still on sell, XLF is on sell but only by two cents, so with the way Da Boyz on Da Street are buying their own stock to make them look good I figure they go to buy on Monday. 


Two of our majors showed up on the first page of the winners in my 80 markets, the IWM, up 1.26%, and DIA down at the very bottom, up .36%, three of our sectors were the big winners up at the top, KRE, XME and XLF,  XLE showed up in the five spot despite oil being DOWN 3.75% for the week.


22 markets closed on new 20 day highs this week vs 47 last week, the two not shown are XLV and XME,  EWH, XBI, XLV, QQQ, SMH, and IWM were continuations from last week off of the first page, I don't know what the win rate was for the total 47 but for the top 20 there was only five winners for a dismal 25% win rate, the five were XLB,IWM,EWH,XBI and XLV.

Two markets closed on 20 day lows, VXX, AGAIN,  and RSX, the three from last week, VXX, XLE and $USD were all LOSER's for the week, eeeeeerrrrrr, I mean, they all finished the week HIGHER, meaning shorting them didn't work ..


There was 51 loser's on the week out of the 80 markets vs only 21 last week, two of those names on the list were the NasDOGS, QQQ down 2.43% for the week, ALL of it on Friday, and the SPY was down .31%. Most of the loser's were Foreign but XLY, SMH, SLV and SMH managed to make the first page.


GDX finished down 39 cents on the week, all of it Friday, as it fell after Trump was not impeached and May didn't pick up any seats. I don't know what's going to drive it next week, the yellow lines are the "expected", or possible, moves for the week, $23.62 on the upside and $22.01 on the down side, we hit the upper target right on the button at 23.82. I will be selling calls and puts outside of those ranges. 

Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, which I only do for those of you that might be interested, I barely looked at it. I did notice FCX showed up in the third spot, I might take a look at it if it can continue up a couple of more days and then get a pull back.


Gee minnie Christmas crimminie sakes, have people stopped drinking BEER??? TAP is the winner of the loser's this week.


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