Friday, April 14, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 4/14/2017



The A/D's have split views this week, The NYSE broke below the March lows on Friday while the $NYAD's have held up surprisingly well, not even close to breaking below the same point in March. 

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

In contrast the $NAAD's broke below their lows on Friday going all the way back to the first of December, while the $COMPQ has not broken it's March lows, if the $NAAD's are indeed some thing of a leading indicator then it don't bode well for Da Q's. 


The SPY did a perfect break Friday of a lower trend line going back to the first trading day of the year, the MACD has been on sale since March 8, the Histogram has been below zero since then and is starting to accelerate lower. We don't quite have a Dave Landry "Box Tie", we only have a negative cross of two of the three moving averages, but one more down day and it's complete. We have a couple of obvious support levels under us, a break of that first green line would complete a lower high and then a lower LOW, a new down trend. This, of course, is just perfect for Grandma Yellin as she can pump a few billion dollars of digital dollars into GS, JPM and Da Boyz on the street with instructions to buy the shit out of the futures and save the world. 
I honestly don't remember the last time we had a down day like this on the day before a big Holiday, especially with options expiration week next week, I can only imagine it's people taking some risk off ahead of the possibility of that Nutso in North Korea blowing up the world Saturday morning. 


We moved to five markets on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, with the  $NYA just barely joining the $TRAN, IWM,  $CRB and $USD.


The all important Bullish Percent indexes remained the same with eight of the 12 indexes on SELL signals, the three major indexes on that list, $BPSPX  $BPNYA and $BPCOMPQ, are all on solid sells on the $BP's, even though they all remain on buys on the price charts, accept for the $NYA mentioned above, this of course shows how weak the under lying majority of stocks in those indexes are over all, as just a few mega stocks are holding them up. One major index not on that list is the $BPINDU, it is still on a solid buy on the $BP AND on it's price chart.


I, LOVE, GDX, and I've been dying to get into it, but there's some thing's holding me back. This has an expanded view of the $BPGDM, granted it's had a big run since the start of the year but it hasn't gotten over that down trend line going back last August, making me itch is that the GDX, in the top frame, HAS broken over that same down trend line, but just in the last couple of days. Mean while, in the bottom frame, the all important GDX:GLD ratio is still stuck inside that triangle and has gone sideways side last September. That ratio had a huge run last year leading to that August high, and needs to break higher. 
Ya know, if the Nutso doesn't set the nuke off, like if China threatens him or some thing, gold will probably fall a hundred points on Monday, which just might give a little better entry into GDX if one were so inclined. 


The sectors stayed at five in the sell party with XLE, XRT, XLF, and XME being joined by XLI, XLB left the party, but may have been a little early, XLV is looking a little shaky as well. 


NONE of our majors showed up on the first page of the winners in my 80 markets, AGAIN, this week, although GDX is a major in my mind. It's interesting that it's up 17.3% YTD but only 13.94% over the last year. The ten year yield fell 5.91% this week which helped TLT show up on this list in 7th, it also helped IYR make the list as it made it a little easier to buy those houses selling at all time average highs.


8 markets closed on new 20 day highs this week vs 10 last week, five of them are continuations from last week's list, GDX, GLD, SLV, TLT, and EPHE, USO didn't make the list but for some reason DBC did, only EPI and EWW were lower on the week, for another 80% win rate.


The 20 day lows get a mention this week as there were 11 of them, notables on the list include XLF and SMH, generally speaking the lows DON'T perform that well, as the FED HATES any thing lower, they want you to pay up for them, so it will be interesting to see the win or lose rate next week.   


56 of the 80 markets finished lower this week, IWM was our big major loser, down 1.37%, SPY was next at -1.24%, tied with Da NasDOGS, QQQ, with DIA being the winner of the losers, only down 1.01%. Of course there's some very notable sectors on that list, like SMH, XLF, IYT, XLB, XLE and OIH, MDY, XLI, IWD, and of course the BIG one is RSX, hahahahahahaha, as the Donald is kind of betraying his best friend Valdimir, although Tillerson is doing his best to patch the relationship back up.
RSX has dropped down a little in the list of low P/E markets, at just over 15 it's still a bargain compared to the SPY which is 24.45 trailing and 18.25 forward, which is REALLY high, the forward that is, EWZ is the cheapest in emerging worlds at around 9, although who knows what it "really" is. 


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 this week, only 138 of them were higher this week compared to 210 last week, there appears to be a little rotation into beaten down retail.


Here's the winners of the losers, lots of BIG names on the list like FAST, TSCO, AA, WFC, RIG, UA, QCOM, MU, FDX, FCX, also it's pretty note worthy that the BEST performer was still down 5.24% on the week.


Hahahahahahahahah .............. HAH!, God, what a bunch of unfricking believable Wall Street BULL SHIT!! P/E of 8.04!! Hahahahahaha...


The LOWEST in the bunch is MO at 9.77, how in the F##K can it be 8.04????


Even MORE shocking is the bottom 15, CLX and CL at 27, KO at 28.68, 
COST, CPB and K at 31.18, 35.04 and K at 36.77, and HSY at 41 fricking .55, I mean, un-fricking-stinking-believable!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This, of course, is the FED's fault, as they've pushed people and institutions into a brainless "chase for yield at ANY COST!" type of mentality, sigh, wad ever, good luck to them ...........

Today, we are excited to share one of Elliott Wave International's latest video interviews, 3 Must-See Charts: Learn What's Next for Europe, where Brian Whitmer, EWI's Senior European Analyst, highlights the precarious position of European stock markets.


Energy Volatility: What to Expect Next

Our Chief Energy Analyst talks about what he’s looking at across the energy markets

By Elliott Wave International

 
In this new interview with Steve Craig, the Editor of our Energy Pro Service, he explains that when looking across the energy complex, 2017 is playing out according to his Elliott wave script.
  








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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Energy Volatility: What to Expect Next. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

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