Friday, April 28, 2017

WEEKLY AND MONTHLY WRAP UP FOR 4/28/2017

(click on image for larger view, I hope)
I'm going to "diverge" with last weeks lousy comments, sigh, even I get tired of being a Debbie Downer every so often, and say, SCREW IT, the stinking $NYAD's are TERRIFIC, seeing as how they are LEADING the $NYA, I had to catch myself there as I almost said leading to the UPSIDE, which of course the index has NOT gone up since the first of March, two months of almost dead sideways action. If you were selling Iron Condors out side of the first weeks range in March you did very well indeed. 


It probably doesn't look like it but the $NAAD's did better this week, they still have a negative divergence with the ATH's in the NasDOGS but at least it's not as bad as last week. 


In sharp contrast the $NASI is NOT doing any better, it's working on a double negative divergence that goes back all the way to  before Christmas.
Of course this is not a tradeable thing, YET, and with the FED constantly in the markets trying to hold them up it may NEVER mean any thing, but in the days of Yore before the massive FED manipulations it used to be a BAAAAAAAAD signal. 


This and the next two are actually monthly time frame charts but I update them every week, we moved back to five markets on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, down from six last week, 20sma below 50, with just a little minor index, the DIA, joining the $NYA, $TRAN,  $CRB and $USD on sell. The SPY and the IWM are just about dead flat and could go either way depending on where they close on Monday.


The all important Bullish Percent indexes now has TEN of the 12 indexes on SELL signals, the only two major indexes NOT on sell are $BPDISC and $BPINFO, $BPSTAP joined the other nine from last week on sell.
$BPGDM 20 SMA went right up to the 50 and is trying to turn lower.


The sectors moved to six in the sell party from seven last week, XLB rejoined the BUY party one week after going to SELL and that was one week after going to BUY, hahahahaha, who says commodities aren't volatile.
Both XLI and, unbelievably, XRT, are right on the verge of new buy signals, like, an up day on Monday would do it. 


Good week for the markets if you were a bull, there's a whole bunch of Europe on the first page, way down at the bottom was our winner for the week, the NasDOGS, QQQ up 2.59%, as for some strange reason I guess American consumers are going to buy tons of new tech stuff from the Dogs because LePen did NOT win the first round of the French elections ....... that's weird, I sure don't feel like buying any thing more, other than toilet paper maybe. The Big Dogs were second, DIA up 1.87%. SPY up 1.49%, and the little guys brought up the rear for the week, IWM up 1.35% in 44th place.


Ninemarkets closed on new 20 day highs this week vs 3 last week, EWM, JNK and TUR ALL closed on 20 day highs AGAIN this week, quite a performance for JNK, I wonder when "inwestors" will figure out what JNK means, hhhhhmmmmm ...............

Only two markets closed on 20 day lows compared to 5 of them last week, ECH and SLV, neither were continuations from last week. Once again this week the 20 day lows from last week went to the UPSIDE, hahahahaha, well, all but OIH, it was down 2.38% on the week, XLE was just barely up as was GCC, but DBA was up 2.33% and EWK 4.52%, wooo hooo, BUY those 20 day lows, screw the Turtles, they didn't know what they were doing, hahahaha ...... of course, that will work until it DON'T, and then it REALLY WON'T ..........


Only 17 of the 80 markets finished lower this week vs 27 last week, Oil had a another down week, GDX AND SLV also had another bad week, ten year yields were up 2% on the week which I guess helps explain part of it, and why IYR, TLT, and XLU were on the list, but NOT why UUP is on the list.


Here's the winners for the month in my 80 markets, the NasDOGS are our only major market that made the list, QQQ up 2.59%, all most all of it this week, TUR was the big winner as I guess they like Dictators in that Country, IWM was our number two at 1.35% for the month, DIA at 1.43%, then SPY at 1.08%.


Here's the losers for the month, there was only 25 of them, the same ones that stared on the weekly losers are leading this list, OIH, SLV, XLE and GDX, naturally I LOVE it, as I'm going to be buying GDX again one of these days.



Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, this week is at the top and the monthly under that, 297 of them were higher for the month so a decent month. It takes more research than I'm willing to do as to why they are on the lists, one thing I will say is that CAT is NOT one of them I will be buying, which means it's probably safe for YOU to buy as it will probably go to Da stinking MOOOOOOON!



The same thing with the losers, although I MAY take more of a look at these lists over the weekend, off hand I don't see any thing I'm interested in.

Saturday, April 22, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 4/14/2017

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

UNSPEAKABLE!! God, what a crock, the big index, NYSE, had a WHOREABLE tight range Darvas boxy thingy last week, and this week it's even WORSE, as it had the same WHOREABLE tight range Darvasboxy thingey, but it dropped down the width of the box and stayed there all week. 
SIGH, wad ever, it sure as shit ain't gonna keep doing this, tight ranges are followed by range expansion, I just don't have any idea which way it's going to break, nor what in the HELL they are obviously waiting on!


The NYAD's are right in line with the POS NYSE above, as they are doing some thing I don't think I've EVER seen, they are diverging to the UPSIDE, IE, they are BETTER than the market, meaning they are trying to LEAD us HIGHER, just amazing, you would think with decent A/D's the market would be flying. 



In contrast the $NAAD's ARE doing some thing I've seen before, and since I believe they made new ATH's this week, and the A/D's made a significantly much LOWER HIGH on that day, IE, a huge NEGATIVE divergence, this is an absolute HORRIBLE situation, that, IN THE PAST, has led to market declines. With the stinking Ahole FED around though who knows what dirty bastards things they will try to do to hold up their precious equity markets. 


The SPY is going right along with the program and also doing unspeakable things, in this case its a huge BEAR FLAG, as it's dropped down below the 50 SMA and is quietly “walking” along under it, just, DYING, to go lower.  



We moved to six markets on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, down from five last week, 20sma below 50, with just a little minor index, the SPY, joining the $NYA, $TRAN, IWM,  $CRB and $USD on sell.


The all important Bullish Percent indexes now has NINE of the 12 indexes on SELL signals, the only three major indexes NOT on sell are $BPDISC, $BPINFO and, for the moment, the $BPSTAP, but that's one tiny day lower on Monday from joining the sell party, not looking good at all.
$BPGDM is the only one on sell that has a 20 day SMA that is trying to move higher. 


The sectors moved to SEVEN in the sell party from five last week, with XLE, XRT, XLF, XME, XLI, and XLB being joined by XLV, and XLB rejoined the party one week after going to buy.

All in all, not a good week at all for the 20/50 signals. 


It's strange to see the piss poor performance up above of the sectors and $BP's as our major markets actually had a pretty good week, they made an appearance on the first page of my 80 markets for the first time in a while, IWM was the wiener at 2.61%, then the NasDOGS, QQQ up 1.66%, SPY was at .89%, with the Big Dogs being the little dogs, DIA bringing up the rear at .43%. We had some nice sector moves on the first page as well, with KRE, SMH, ITY, XLI, MDY, XLY, XLB, IWF all making a nice showing.

Only 3 markets closed on new 20 day highs this week vs 8 last week, EWM, JNK and TUR, EWM was the only continuation from last week's list. EWW and TLT were the only winners from last week's list for a lousy 25% win rate.


Five markets closed on 20 day lows compared to 11 of them last week, none were continuations from last week. As I predicted last week (I think I did?), all 11 that closed on 20 day lows finished higher on the week, hahahahahaha, this has been an awful trade, as there is no continuation to the down side like there used to be, like a millennia ago. Some of them did quite well, like EFUN was up 2.71%, EWJ 1.68%, SMH 3.1%, XLF 1.14%, and XIV 5.58%. 


Only 27 of the 80 markets finished lower this week vs 56 last week, Oil had a very poor week, it MUST have to be worse than that stinking VXX, USO down 7.28%, I can only assume it's going down in response to all the oil needed for the WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC BOOM bubblevision and the rest of the MSM is pumping. GDX AND SLV had a bad week, because with the WWEB who needs precious metals?? GCC and DBA are more commodity items we don't seem to need, and of course the item in the 16 spot, UUP, just flys in the face of all those lower commodities, as they SHOULD have gone UP with a lower dollar, right? That sounds just like the Turtle 20 day lows, just do the opposite, sigh, one of these days markets will get back to normal, maybe ....
At least most of the items on the list were related to the lower oil like EWC and EWA, ECH was hurt by lower metals, I have no idea why EWH and FXI were lower as I thought the economic news was good this week, I guess it's a case of do the opposite again. Look at all the red numbers behind DBA for the last year, I'm surprised we haven't seen farmer's forming a Cartel like Opec and the FED to try and manipulate prices higher, although some thing must be going on as I bought lettuce for $1.19 a head a week ago Friday and went back on Wednesday and it was $2.59 a head!!!! Celery was up 25%, I didn't notice much of any thing else that had gone sky high ............


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 this week, 370 of them were higher this week compared to only 138 last week, most are earnings related I guess, like CSX, I don't follow individual earnings for the most part.


Here's the winners of the losers, lots of interesting names on the list like MAT, GWW, CF, HOG, EBAY, IBM, a bunch of energy as you would expect, if you are wondering why I find the LOSER'S interesting, well, obviously you must have started in the markets in 2009 and only know you buy high and hope to find a sucker to take it off your hands at much higher prices, I still kind of believe in that old saw of buy low, but ONLY if you can figure out some value in the name. Like, HOG, hahahaha, people can't seem to figure out why it went down after beating "estimates", but first quarter earnings were down 22.8% and shipments fell 14.7% YOY, this after the stock was UP 28% YOY, I don't see any thing unusual about the stock falling a little after numbers like that. Zacks seems to think it's core base of Baby Boomers is getting to old to keep buying bikes, but I think that we just got wise enough to realize there's only two kinds of bike riders, THOSE THAT ARE DOWN AND THOSE THAT ARE GOING DOWN!!!!

Friday, April 14, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 4/14/2017



The A/D's have split views this week, The NYSE broke below the March lows on Friday while the $NYAD's have held up surprisingly well, not even close to breaking below the same point in March. 

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

In contrast the $NAAD's broke below their lows on Friday going all the way back to the first of December, while the $COMPQ has not broken it's March lows, if the $NAAD's are indeed some thing of a leading indicator then it don't bode well for Da Q's. 


The SPY did a perfect break Friday of a lower trend line going back to the first trading day of the year, the MACD has been on sale since March 8, the Histogram has been below zero since then and is starting to accelerate lower. We don't quite have a Dave Landry "Box Tie", we only have a negative cross of two of the three moving averages, but one more down day and it's complete. We have a couple of obvious support levels under us, a break of that first green line would complete a lower high and then a lower LOW, a new down trend. This, of course, is just perfect for Grandma Yellin as she can pump a few billion dollars of digital dollars into GS, JPM and Da Boyz on the street with instructions to buy the shit out of the futures and save the world. 
I honestly don't remember the last time we had a down day like this on the day before a big Holiday, especially with options expiration week next week, I can only imagine it's people taking some risk off ahead of the possibility of that Nutso in North Korea blowing up the world Saturday morning. 


We moved to five markets on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, with the  $NYA just barely joining the $TRAN, IWM,  $CRB and $USD.


The all important Bullish Percent indexes remained the same with eight of the 12 indexes on SELL signals, the three major indexes on that list, $BPSPX  $BPNYA and $BPCOMPQ, are all on solid sells on the $BP's, even though they all remain on buys on the price charts, accept for the $NYA mentioned above, this of course shows how weak the under lying majority of stocks in those indexes are over all, as just a few mega stocks are holding them up. One major index not on that list is the $BPINDU, it is still on a solid buy on the $BP AND on it's price chart.


I, LOVE, GDX, and I've been dying to get into it, but there's some thing's holding me back. This has an expanded view of the $BPGDM, granted it's had a big run since the start of the year but it hasn't gotten over that down trend line going back last August, making me itch is that the GDX, in the top frame, HAS broken over that same down trend line, but just in the last couple of days. Mean while, in the bottom frame, the all important GDX:GLD ratio is still stuck inside that triangle and has gone sideways side last September. That ratio had a huge run last year leading to that August high, and needs to break higher. 
Ya know, if the Nutso doesn't set the nuke off, like if China threatens him or some thing, gold will probably fall a hundred points on Monday, which just might give a little better entry into GDX if one were so inclined. 


The sectors stayed at five in the sell party with XLE, XRT, XLF, and XME being joined by XLI, XLB left the party, but may have been a little early, XLV is looking a little shaky as well. 


NONE of our majors showed up on the first page of the winners in my 80 markets, AGAIN, this week, although GDX is a major in my mind. It's interesting that it's up 17.3% YTD but only 13.94% over the last year. The ten year yield fell 5.91% this week which helped TLT show up on this list in 7th, it also helped IYR make the list as it made it a little easier to buy those houses selling at all time average highs.


8 markets closed on new 20 day highs this week vs 10 last week, five of them are continuations from last week's list, GDX, GLD, SLV, TLT, and EPHE, USO didn't make the list but for some reason DBC did, only EPI and EWW were lower on the week, for another 80% win rate.


The 20 day lows get a mention this week as there were 11 of them, notables on the list include XLF and SMH, generally speaking the lows DON'T perform that well, as the FED HATES any thing lower, they want you to pay up for them, so it will be interesting to see the win or lose rate next week.   


56 of the 80 markets finished lower this week, IWM was our big major loser, down 1.37%, SPY was next at -1.24%, tied with Da NasDOGS, QQQ, with DIA being the winner of the losers, only down 1.01%. Of course there's some very notable sectors on that list, like SMH, XLF, IYT, XLB, XLE and OIH, MDY, XLI, IWD, and of course the BIG one is RSX, hahahahahahaha, as the Donald is kind of betraying his best friend Valdimir, although Tillerson is doing his best to patch the relationship back up.
RSX has dropped down a little in the list of low P/E markets, at just over 15 it's still a bargain compared to the SPY which is 24.45 trailing and 18.25 forward, which is REALLY high, the forward that is, EWZ is the cheapest in emerging worlds at around 9, although who knows what it "really" is. 


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 this week, only 138 of them were higher this week compared to 210 last week, there appears to be a little rotation into beaten down retail.


Here's the winners of the losers, lots of BIG names on the list like FAST, TSCO, AA, WFC, RIG, UA, QCOM, MU, FDX, FCX, also it's pretty note worthy that the BEST performer was still down 5.24% on the week.


Hahahahahahahahah .............. HAH!, God, what a bunch of unfricking believable Wall Street BULL SHIT!! P/E of 8.04!! Hahahahahaha...


The LOWEST in the bunch is MO at 9.77, how in the F##K can it be 8.04????


Even MORE shocking is the bottom 15, CLX and CL at 27, KO at 28.68, 
COST, CPB and K at 31.18, 35.04 and K at 36.77, and HSY at 41 fricking .55, I mean, un-fricking-stinking-believable!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This, of course, is the FED's fault, as they've pushed people and institutions into a brainless "chase for yield at ANY COST!" type of mentality, sigh, wad ever, good luck to them ...........

Today, we are excited to share one of Elliott Wave International's latest video interviews, 3 Must-See Charts: Learn What's Next for Europe, where Brian Whitmer, EWI's Senior European Analyst, highlights the precarious position of European stock markets.


Energy Volatility: What to Expect Next

Our Chief Energy Analyst talks about what he’s looking at across the energy markets

By Elliott Wave International

 
In this new interview with Steve Craig, the Editor of our Energy Pro Service, he explains that when looking across the energy complex, 2017 is playing out according to his Elliott wave script.
  








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Friday, April 07, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 4/7/2017


(click on image for normal view, I hope)

The $NYSI, at the top, turned up this week, while the $NASI continued to roll over. Roll roll roll your A/D's over, gently against the prevailing chart, the bulls go merrily merrily merrily singing life is but a FED fueled dream, la de da la de da ................


The SPY went dead ass sideways this week, I mean, GOD, what a horrible fricking chart, both the RSI and MACD have been diverging against the side ways action to the DOWN side, which, of course, only means that one of these days we'll get a big cross over and break through those down sloping lines, as the P/E continue on their own merry way to heights unheard of in the sane world .......


We are back to four,$TRAN, IWM,  $CRB and $USD, on sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, the TLT and IYR managed to rally back up above the 20sma this week, as 10 year rates went down this week .98%, and in the continuing "weird" columns it gapped way down Friday off the WHORE-rible NON-jobs report, but finished HIGHER, hahahahahaha, its unfricking believable what goes on, I mean, OBVIOUSLY, the shitty report is GOOD as it keeps the rate rachting FED on the side lines, but that means LOWER rates, not higher, sigh, wad ever, it sure was good for gold, which makes sense at least, it was up almost 20 points early as rates gapped down, but went down all day as they went higher, finally finishing only $4 higher.


The all important Bullish Percent indexes are also WHORE-rible, with eight of the 12 on SELL signals, even WORSE is that the $BPSPX joined the $BPNYA and $BPCOMPQ, making all the majors on SELL, and NOT a good sign at all, as OBVIOUSLY a few mega caps are taking the indexes higher as a greater portion of the general stock universe is LOWER. Even with the decent last four weeks in gold the $BPGDM continue to be on SELL, although at least thi8s week it closed higher. Only two of the 24 stocks in the GDX finished lower this week, AGI and BTG, who, or WHOM, ever the hell they are ......... 


The sectors a little change this week, with XLB and XLF joining the sell party with XLE, XRT and XME. I, ALMOST, took a position in XRT, but I forgot about the thing until I wrote this, hahahahaha, it's just as well as it finished down today, maybe I'll take some next week. 


NONE of our majors showed up on the first page of the winners in my 80 markets this week, stuff like oil and PM's were the best sectors this week, which, again, is part of the continuing "WEIRD" in the markets, USO was up 3.01%, GDX 3.02% and GLD .62%, and I guess the only reason was because the dollar was UP .90% on the week, hahahahahaha, so much for THAT correlation BS .......... the big boys, DIA, was the BIG winners this week in the majors, up a WHOPPING .02%, wooo hooo ..............


10 markets closed on new 20 day highs this week vs 5 last week, two of them are continuations from last week's list, ECH and EWW, so obviously they were winners, SMH was the only one down from last week, down .74%, for an 80% win rate.

Only two markets closed on 20 day lows thlis week, DBA, AGAIN, and FXE, three of the eight from last week finished HIGHER,  DIA, XLI and UUP,  IWD, IYT, OEF, SPY, VTI, all continued lower this week for a 62% win rate.  


46 of the 80 markets finished lower this week, IWM was our big loser, down 1.43%, most of it off the Trump humanitarian relief effort of 59 Tomahawk missles, for some, WEIRD, reason SLV was down 1.28% while GDX and GLD were higher, QQQ was next at -.31%, with the SPY being the winner of the losers, only down .23%. 


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 this week, 210of them to be exact, I see why GDX was higher as NEM was in the 10th spot.


Here's the winners of the losers, HPE had an excuse as they had a spin off, AYI had an excuse as well, like, SHITTY EARNINGS!!!

Today, we are excited to share one of Elliott Wave International's latest video interviews, 3 Must-See Charts: Learn What's Next for Europe, where Brian Whitmer, EWI's Senior European Analyst, highlights the precarious position of European stock markets.

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