Saturday, January 21, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 1/20/2017


Both the Big Caps AND the small caps extended their BB Squeezes this week, and both triggered, the IWM at the top triggering to the down side and the SPY at the bottom to the upside. The thing is they are BOTH HORRIBLE, thee SPY remaining in it's red box all week, and the IWM falling out of it the last two days, they act as if they were waiting on, like, TRUMP??? They sure didn't show it today as they both put on Doji bars Friday, about as indecisive as you can get. 
One thing is for sure, we will move BIG, when we decide to go. 



Both the $NYAD's and the $NAAD's fell out of their LEADING position this week, as they closed below the lows of last week while the COMPQ and NYA did not, a negative divergence. The AD's closed up on Friday so maybe that carries into next week. 


The $SKEW is back up above the areas where we had the worst pull backs in the last three years. 


Of 12 major markets only 1is not on buy, 20 sma above 50, that's GLD,  VWO. and TLT both moved to buy this week, although TLT did it by 11 cents, which is not even a bid spread.


In the all important Bull Percent indexes the only one NOT on a buy signal, $BPDISC, the consumer discretionary sector, got worse this week. Two sectors that continue not looking good are the $BPINDY, the industrials, and $BPENER, energy. The one that REALLY looks bad though is the $BPCOMPQ, I mean, WOW, what's going on there?? Neither the NYA, DIA, or SPY have broken their 20 SMA. 


"Every SP sector is on buy, EVERY ONE ........... oops, excuse me, down in the lower right hand corner the XRT just triggered a Turtle sell signal on Friday, I guess the American consumer doesn't share the same love of Trump that Wall Street does."
That's what I said last week, and it's still true this week. Housing, XHB, is right on the verge of a new sell signal, which fits with the XRT, for if the average consumer can't afford to buy clothes, they sure as hell can't afford to buy houses that are at ATH's!!


Ok, I take back every thing I said about TUR last week, it actually held up for a second week, only falling to third in my 30 markets. I'm a little sulrprised at the numbers, I thought they would be bigger than that, only five were above 2%.
Our best major made the first page this week, GDX up 2.21% ......... ok, so it's MY best major! The actual REAL major winner was those award winning NasDOGS, AGAIN, this week in 29th spot, QQQ up a MONSTROUS .42%, and, AGAIN LESS than last week, the SPY moved into the runner spot, up .09% on the week, although StockCharts says they were DOWN .14%, or a horrendous 31 cents.


Only 11 markets closed on new 20 day highs this week vs 18 last week, IE, the "TURTLE" buy signal. Of the eleven five are new signals, XLB, EWZ, EWO, ILF, XLP, the other six are continuations from 20 day highs last week. Of the new signals XLP has a 2.5% dividend, it broke out over a trend line going back to July, and has a possible INVERTED head and shoulders formation on it, with a "possible" Equal Move target of $55;


Keep in mind some of the stocks in XLP are dollar sensitive, and may face head winds if the Trump dollar rally continues. I have to LOL here, because the dollar just made a new 20 day low four days ago, which explains a big chunk of the rally in XLP, and also kind of  makes some "experts" look a little silly, but there's a lot involved with the dollar, especially in cross pairs and depends a lot on what other Countries are trying to do with their currencies, like trying to make them cheaper to improve their export positions.
Mark Chandler is an excellent follow on "Seeking Alpha" if you are "seeking" guidance on currencies, and much more.

I don't mention any 20 day lows because currently there are only two out of the 80 markets, VXX and QID, and they are both short funds, meaning if you BUY them you are actually SHORT, eeerrrr, well, maybe you aren't, you could be over 6' tall for all I know, or of course, if you are the manager of a SHORT only fund and want to sneak in a LONG of the market you could short the funds, making you long, and this is getting a little long, and I'm sorry I mentioned it..........


We picked up more losers again this week, going to 35 vs 25 last week, there's old reliable in the no. 2 spot, EGPT, Russia has been sucking it a little bit as I guess "they" think Trump might be harder on him than that last thing was. Bonds were down, TLT -1.60%, meaning interest rates were up, USO was down 1.30%, so, NATURALLY, the dollar was ALSO lower, UUP wasn't, it was down .61%, La De Da, just another one of those SUPPOSEDLY unbreakable CORRELATED assets that is not working!! The DIA got a break this week, down .40% vs down .41% last week, hahahahahaha, but at least they weren't the worst this week, that honor belonged to the little guys, IWM down .62% for the week.
One thing I will say, when you look at the major's numbers the last few weeks it won't be any fun until they start making DAILY moves that are more than those WEEKLY moves we've been getting. 


"Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 this week, I see nothing I'm even interested in glancing at."
Ditto for this week.  


Here's the loser's for the week, just a wild guess but I'm guessing they didn't particularly like C and GS's earnings numbers, I could be wrong about that though.

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