Sunday, December 31, 2017

TOS Buy/Sell scan results for week of 12/29/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
The daily signals are best for the one week of results while the Weekly signals should probably be considered longer term swing trades, I, MAY, do like a monthly or quarterly update to see how they did on the longer term time frames.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The "TTM SQUEEZE" is just for information purposes as it's not a signal, it merely alerts you to the possibility of a big move up coming, either higher or lower.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same. There are seven markets that average less than 100K shares a day, five are Country ETF's which I include for obvious reasons, EIS as it would signal a new war in the middle east first, EIRL, IDX, EWK, EPU, one currency, FXF, which is the Swiss Franc, and GCC is a commodity fund.

Daily signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 83% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 50% winners
MACD Histogram buy signal: 100% winners
4 Hour MACD buy signal: 83% winners
MACD Histogram sell signal: 100% winners.
4 Hour MACD sell signal: 100% winners.
Positive ROC(13) Cross:  100% winners,

Negative ROC(13) Cross: None.
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: 100% winners.
Close below T-Line: 100% losers
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 100% winners
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 66% winners.

The multiple buy signals were 100% winners.
The multiple sell signals were 100% winners.


Here's the DAILY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: EWW

PPS sell signal for Monday: EWI, EZU, IWM, IYT, SPY, XLY, XRT

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: EWH, EWT
       "     4 HOUR MACD Cross: NONE
                                                 
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EWQ, IWM, IYT, SMH, XHB, XIV
        "     4 Hour MACD Cross: ACWI, EWI, EZU, USO, VWO

Positive ROC(13) Cross: BND, EGPT, EWK, TLT

Negative ROC(13) Cross: EWO, EWG, EWQ, QQQ, SMH, XLF, XLK, XLV

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA:AAXJ

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: EZU

HULL MA(21) changed to green: TLT, VXX

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: DIA, SMH, SPY, XIV, XLP

"TTM SQUEEZE" : NONE

Multiple buy signals: NONE, ZERO, NADA, ZILCH

Multiple SELL signals: EWI, EWQ, EZU, IWM, IYT, SMH, SPY, XIV

NOTES:
One hell of a good week, more than making up for the disaster last week, well, until we hit the SELL SIGNALS on the weekly charts, wooo weeee, thank god there was no signals on the T-line .....
The multiple sell signals on the IWM, IYT, SMH, SPY and XIV kind of reiterate what I said on the weekly update in the post below. There were single sell signals in QQQ and XLK, and since they are basically the same, that "could" count as a multiple sell signal, add the single sell on DIA and that's a LOT of sell signals on the major indexes.


Weekly signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 100% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 100% losers.
MACD Histogram buy signal: 100% winners.
MACD Histogram sell signal: 100% losers
Positive ROC: 100% winners
Negative ROC(13) Cross:  100% losers
Close above T-Line: 100% winners.
Close below T-Line: None.
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 87.5% winners.
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 83% losers.

The multiple buy signals were 100% winners ..
Multiple SELL signals: 100% losers.

Here's the WEEKLY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: DBC, EEM, GCC, GLD, ILF, SLV

PPS sell signal for Monday: EWP

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: EWU

Negative MACD Histogram Cross:EWS

Positive ROC(13) Cross: EWM, EWT, FXE, GCC, GDX, GLD, IYR, SLV, TLT, TUR

Negative ROC(13) Cross: OIH, UUP

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: GLD, OIH

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: EWT

HULL MA(21) changed to green: AMLP, DBC, ECH, EWN, GLD, VWO

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE

"TTM SQUEEZE": NONE

Multiple buy signals: DBC, EEM + VWO, GCC, GLD, SLV

Multiple SELL signals: NONE

NOTES:
Image result for picture of crazy gold fever


GLD has 4, count'em, FOUR, buy signals on the weekly charts, I've never seen one symbol pop up so much. Personally, I don't really see any thing on the weekly chart, it's sitting right on the 50% FIB Extension going from the 2015 low up to the 2016 high, the impluse leg, and back down to the 2016 low, I mean it's at the same price it was back in 2014. If it does go up the next stop is that 75% level at $130.62, if it gets through that the Sky's the limit. 


I could make a case that we had an impluse leg from the September high down to the October low, it retraced to the 75% extension off the October highs, and now it's gone up 12 of the last 13 days right into major resistance at those October highs, just gap city plus the last two days have been a doji Hanging man and doji hammer. 


Now, we could go the other way with the impluse leg coming off the July low to the September high, with the retrace back to the October low, but that low in December really screws this up, BUTT, if this run up is for real, then IF it can get over the Hidden Pivot in the red circle, then those higher price points are the targets we are looking for. 


Personally I don't "DO" GLD, I do GDX, it looks some what similar but a little different, you "could" say it's has surpassed one external pivot at the red line, and would need to surpass the second external pivot at the green line to give the all clear, I've been kind of day trading and hedging and sell puts and calls and stuff like that. 

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE, as in ZERO, ZILCH, no decent entries for you ....... on either the daily or weekly charts

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM calls into RSI(13) over bought conditions, IE OVER 80 on the daily charts: NONE
On the weekly charts: ACWI, DIA, RSP, SPY, VTI - all of those are for the THIRD week in a row, so, see the next two statements:

Which reminds me to say what I say every week:

"OVER BOUGHT" can stay "OVER BOUGHT" for LONG periods of time, as can "OVER SOLD".

NOTE: "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", etc etc etc, are called "DISCLAIMERS", meaning I don't know what I'm doing and you would be well advised by your financial Adviser to completely IGNORE any thing I've said ............

DOOM, DOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!



I'm sooooooo happy, happy that the SP 500 went past the Shiller P/E ratio of the 1929 collaspe, I mean, woooooo hoooooo, this is now truly the SECOND most over valued piece of shit stock market in the entire history of mankind .............. well, at least going back to 1881. But, Ya know, we ALL know this, right? RIGHT?? Well, evidently every one accept the FEDERAL RESERVE!!! God, what a bunch of dumb shits, sigh ...............

Ok, so here's my thesis for the coming year, now, YA KNOW, last year the scare mongers were out in force with their DIRE PREDICTIONS about stock market returns of years that end in SEVEN, so, YA KNOW, when there's so much yelling and screaming about some thing so obvious, it's just as obviously NOT going to happen, so it didn't, the market had another great year, but THIS coming year, I haven't heard shit about investing in years that end in EIGHT, sssooooooooooooo, that CAN'T be good .........

 So, I don't care about what the market returned, I care about the DRAW DOWN we had during the year, which, for the past 7 or 8 years it wasn't called a draw down, it was called a BTFD, or the buying opportunity of a life time, or wad ever ........
So, luckily, good Ole Ed Yardeni just happens to have the draw downs in the SP 500 on his site, going back to 1928:

So, Ya know, I do stuff on this blog for ME, I don't care about any one else, so the following is going to be LONG and BORING, so read it at your own risk.


So, the first thing that stands out to me is that since 1927 there's only been four times, or 21% of the time, that the market had a negative return, and those years were all recession years, 37', 57', 77, 08', and three of those were "7" years, so since 1927 there's only been ONE "8" year that was negative. 
There's only been three times prior to 2017 that there were zero draw downs, in the following, starting in 28', the market gained 43.81% with a 10.3% draw down, in 1959 it gained 4.3% with a 13.6% draw down, in 1989 the market gained 18.9% with a draw down of ZERO, so it had back to back ZERO draw down years in 88' and 89', but that led to the 1990 recession and TWO draw downs during the year of 10 and 20 percent.
You should buy hand over fist if we are lucky enough to have a NEGATIVE year, the returns following those four negative years averaged 24.52%. 
You should "probably" buy if we are lucky enough to get at least a 30% draw down during the year. Since 1927 we've only had 12 years when that happened, and with the exception of 1930 there were only two years where the draw down was over 50%, the market gained 17.5% in 38' after the 37' draw down, but of course in 08', following the 56.8% draw down in 07', we lost 36.55%, hence my losses in 08' as that was a one off peice of shit that happens once in several generations, SIGH!


Here's the other 30% or more draw down years, the right hand column is the return in the year following the draw down, not particularly encouraging, if you look at 29' to 34' you had two gains of 112%, which beat the 83% down years, the 27% loss in 74' was followed by a 38% gain in 75', one thing that's always bugged me was it took 24 years for the "GREAT DEPRESSION" to get back over it's high before 1929, while it only took five plus years for the "GREAT RECESSION" to over come the October 2007 highs. 
Another thing that bugs me is that the 2001 and 2008 "recessions" weren't recessions at all, they were just WALL STREET bull shit recessions, as housing continued gang busters through the 2001 down turn which NEVER happened in prior recessions, and of course 08' was all Wall Street as the crooked banks got what they deserved (which of course was a $700 BILLION dollar bail tax payer bail out thanks to the former CEO of GS, Hanky Panky Paulson, sigh). 

I've decided I've lost my way, it's to damn early in the morning, I suppose if I had one take away it would be that we've only had four ZERO draw down years since 1927, one of them was followed by another ZERO draw down year in 89' with a 32% gain, a 43.81% gain in 28', and a 11.59% gain in 59', so the future probably looks pretty bright for the bulls. 


Friday, December 29, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 12/29/2017

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

The SPY, DIA and IWM put on horrendous looking bearish engulfing bars on Friday, on increasing volume, the NasDOGS, QQQ, couldn't gap above Thursdays close so they don't have one. The SPY also got SELL signals on the RSI, MACD and STOCH, which in days of Yore would probably result in 50% losses in the major indexes, but in the days of NOW the stinking FED will simply print fake digital money and squeeze the shit out of any one stupid enough to short it. 


Even more ominious is that "they" sold the shit out of the NQ futures after the close, down 25 points from where the red arrow is, I noticed it because the NQ was showing a drop of .95% for the day while the QQQ's were "only" down .62%, the SP 500 basically doubled it's losses after the close, with the ES closing down .65% while the SPY was down "only" .38% on the day. Maybe there was a dividend after the close?? OR, just maybe, Da Boyz know that AAPL is going to declare BK over the weekend, hahahahahahahahahaha ................ maybe they are selling futures as a hedge against possible tax loss selling??

(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up by StockCharts.com)

The same four as last week remained on sell signals, $CRB, GLD, $USD and VWO, 20sma under 50sma, the VWO was only 3 cents from a new buy signal so the FED will undoubtedly take care of THAT early next week. 


"The all important Bullish Percent indexes" dropped back to four that are still on sell signals, the $BPCOMPQ managed to go back to a buy signal.


The XLU is the only sector on a new sell signal. 


We moved down to 57 of my 81 markets being higher on the week, vs 59 last week, in a huge surprise the SLV was the beeg wiener this week, wow, I don't ever remember that happening, it was a good week for all commodities with USO, XME, DBC, GLD, GDX, GCC all making the first page, commodity producing countries also made the first page like EPU, ECH, EWM, EWZ and RSX.
TLT was our best performing major this week, up 1.81%, in fact, it was our ONLY major market higher on the week.


We had 32 markets close on 20 day highs this week vs 7 last week,and all seven were higher on the week, so it was a complete turn around for the Turtles from that lousy week last week. , it was actually a lousy week for the 10 from last week as only 4 closed higher on the week, not a very good performance for the Turtles trading strat. 

Three closed on 20 day lows vs four last week, EWP, VXX and UUP,  EWP was the only continuation and winner from last week. 


Our BEST major was on the second page of the LOSERS, DIA down only .11% on the week, the it was the SPY at -.27%, the IWM at -.66%, with the NasDOGS being the big losers, QQQ down 1.14%, I mean, thank god for the SANTA rally or the indexes might have done bad, hahahahahahahaha, the SMH being the second worst explains a large part of the poor QQQ performance ....................
Banks were the big losers, KRE was the worst at -2.19%, XLF was -.78%, as the ten year yield dropped 3.22% on the week, that didn't help the dollar either. 
All I heard the MSM bloviating about was how great consumer spending and confidence were, and yet I see XRT was down .46%, I guess the FED demand they do nothing but talk the happy talk. 


This is the second week in a row that AA led the winners in the SP 500 this week, I have no idea why, I see FCX there in sixth spot, another no idea why thing, China is in a slow down from what I hear, oh well, wad ever ................


Here's the losers, 264 were LOWER on the week, first time in a while that the losers out numbered the winners, MU explained why the SMH was down on the week, the word on the street is that the DRAM and flash commodities have PEAKED for this cycle, more fodder for the FED to get the digital presses working over time.

YEAR END WRAP UP IN MY 81 MARKETS FOR 2017


Here's the yearly futures results from Finviz, the best stock major index was the NasDOGS, up32.9%, it was then the DJIA, SPX and RUT, the EURO was up 13.94% while the dollar was down 10.06%, the lower dollar helped Gold finish up on the year 12.76%, Silver was up only 5.64%, bonds and thus interest rates were pretty flat. 


Here's the winners oin my 81 markets, XIV was the big winner but even better it out perfomed it's counter part VXX, up 192.56% vs down 73.08, it would not surprise me that if the markets had finished lower on the year that stinking VXX would have also. 
Only one of our majors made the first page, the QQQ, our best sector or industry was SMH, up 37.8%:


It's actually one of the better winners charts as it's pulled back to a lower USTL, upward sloping trend line, and sets up a very tight stop should you decide you like it LONG, as your stop would be just under the USTL. 




It doesn't matter if you like the equal weight SP 500, the SPY for the Vanguard total stock market, they all look the same, an accelerating USTL channel, with a rsing wedge inside of the channel, RSP and SPY are sitting right on the wedge while the VTI has broken it to the down side. 


The DIA look completely different, it's been getting parabolic since August, and has been accelerating since April, I mean, correcct me if I'm wrong but isn't this the stoogie old INDU index? Acting like a DOT.COMMER from 2000?? I'm probably WRONG, as I usually am, but when these correct they "usually" take back about 50% of the run up, so we "may" be looking at the gap fill around $230. 

The little guys look a little different as well, it's stalled just under the prior high and has a couple of bearish rising wedge looks to it, it wouldn't surprise me if it just takes off higher next week as the IWM "usually" out performs in January, but I'd keep those Wedgies in mind. 


There was only nine loser's for the whole year in those 81 markets, and the one I have been talking about for the last three weeks in right there in the two spot, OIH, still waiting for the break out in the INVERSE head and shoulders above $26, commodities are the word for the losers with DBA, GCC, IGE all losers and USO up only 2.13%, maybe they end up being the big winners next year with all the dreamers talking about the WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC BOOM!!!!


Here's the winners in the SP 500 for the year, I have nothing to say other than they seem to cover a large spectrum of sectors ......


And here's the losers, I have nothing to say about them either, well, accept for ONE stock, my main thought is that if we actually are going to get a pull back you defintely DON'T want to be buying the weak stocks.


Here's that ONE stock, GE, now that we've gotten rid of that stinking former CEO whose main claim to fame was to halve the stock price of one of the best companies in the World, AND, get it invovled in just about the WORST stinking thing I can imagine, French F**KING LABOR UNIONS, sigh!! I'm tellin ya, EVENTUALLY, those unions will try and take them out so they can buy their company back themselves, wad ever ...
I'm hoping the new guy can do a LOT better, as ANY better wouldn't be hard to do, it has huge support down at $14, and it sure looks like it's on a non stop trip to get there! I'll probably start a position at that point, but keep in mind that during the 08' melt down it got down in the $8 "area". 

Saturday, December 23, 2017

TOS Buy/Sell scan results for week of 12/22/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
The daily signals are best for the one week of results while the Weekly signals should probably be considered longer term swing trades, I, MAY, do like a monthly or quarterly update to see how they did on the longer term time frames.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The "TTM SQUEEZE" is just for information purposes as it's not a signal, it merely alerts you to the possibility of a big move up coming, either higher or lower.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same. There are seven markets that average less than 100K shares a day, five are Country ETF's which I include for obvious reasons, EIS as it would signal a new war in the middle east first, EIRL, IDX, EWK, EPU, one currency, FXF, which is the Swiss Franc, and GCC is a commodity fund.

Daily signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 60% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 75% losers
MACD Histogram buy signal: 60% losers
4 Hour MACD buy signal: 66% losers
MACD Histogram sell signal: 62% losers.
4 Hour MACD sell signal: 100% losers.
Positive ROC(13) Cross:  100% losers,

Negative ROC(13) Cross: 83% losers.
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: None.
Close below T-Line: 100% losers
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 60% losers
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 87% losers.

The multiple buy signals were 80% losers.
The multiple sell signals were 71% losers.


Here's the DAILY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: AAXJ, EEM, EPHE, EWD, IDX, THD

PPS sell signal for Monday: FXF, XLK

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: EEM, EPU, FXI, IDX
       "     4 HOUR MACD Cross: EWI, EWT, FXI, IDX, JNK, TLT
                                                 
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EWG, VTI, XLV
        "     4 Hour MACD Cross: XLY

Positive ROC(13) Cross: EPU, EWC, EWQ, FXI, GLD, SLV

Negative ROC(13) Cross: NONE

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: DBC, GDX

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: FXF

HULL MA(21) changed to green: IDX

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EGPT, EWA, XLV

"TTM SQUEEZE" : EWZ

Multiple buy signals: EEM, EPU, FXI, IDX, GDX & GLD??

Multiple SELL signals: XLV

NOTES:


This is the same chart of OIH from three weeks ago showing the inverse H and S with a trigger price of over $26 and a target of $30:


Here's the updated chart, nasty little sucker.
It gapped down under $24 on Monday, breaking the lower trend line, and in the new paradigm of "failed" patterns it went straight up for four days, back to a down sloping trend line and under the $26 trigger, it had increasing volume which is good, but I notice it did that the last two times it went up to that trend line, and then promptly failed.
I only mention it because it showed up on multiple buy signals on the weekly charts, it has a contracting triangle now, and it's still valid over $26.


A 30 year seasonality chart of oil shows oil goes up in December and then down into March, at which point it starts it's run up into the summer driving season.
This makes me a little concerned about a break out fake out next week, as it will probably follow the oil chart and bottom in Feburary, so, I'm just saying I'd be a little careful of a break out at this point.


So, your probably tired of hearing my BS about OIH, I know I am, so here's a new one, IYR showed up on four, count'em, FOUR, sell signals on the weekly charts. This cracks me up of course as it's fallen to an up sloping lower trend line support line, and put on a new green candle on Friday, the whole thing is an upward sloping channel going back to last April, and it's trying to make another HIGHER LOW, so, I, MIGHT, consider all those signals by the dumb shit "systems" as just another George Castanza "OPPOSITE" day, hahahahahaha, sigh, wad ever, the good part about right now is you DEFINTELY know where your stop is should you decide to buy it.
This is a bet on interest rates of course, as real estate HATES higher rates, so if you think rates will continue up, well, this should continue down.

Weekly signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 66% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 50% winners.
MACD Histogram buy signal: 100% winners.
MACD Histogram sell signal: 66% winners..
Positive ROC: 75% losers
Negative ROC(13) Cross:  75% losers
Close above T-Line: None.
Close below T-Line: 100% losers.
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 50% winners.
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 50% winners.
The multiple buy signals were 66% winners ..
Multiple SELL signals: 66% losers.

Here's the WEEKLY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: ECH, EPI, EWO, GDX, TUR, VWO

PPS sell signal for Monday: EWH, EWM, EWS, IYR, TLT

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: EIDO, EIRL, EPHE, EPI, IDX

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: IYR

Positive ROC(13) Cross: ECH, EPU, OIH, VWO

Negative ROC(13) Cross: EURN, EWM, IYR, TLT, XLU

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: ECH, EIS

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA:NONE

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EPHE, EUFN, EWO, FXF, IGE, OIH, TUR, VGK

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: AAXJ, DBC, EWG, EWH, IYR, XLU

"TTM SQUEEZE": EWM

Multiple buy signals: ECH, EPI, EWO, OIH, TUR, VWO

Multiple SELL signals: EWH, EWM, IYR, TLT, XLU

NOTES:

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE, as in ZERO, ZILCH, no decent entries for you ....... on either the daily or weekly charts

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM calls into RSI(13) over bought conditions, IE OVER 80 on the daily charts: NONE
On the weekly charts: ACWI, DIA, RSP, SPY, VTI - all of those are for the second week in a row, so, see the next two statements:

Which reminds me to say what I say every week:

"OVER BOUGHT" can stay "OVER BOUGHT" for LONG periods of time, as can "OVER SOLD".

NOTE: "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", etc etc etc, are called "DISCLAIMERS", meaning I don't know what I'm doing and you would be well advised by your financial Adviser to completely IGNORE any thing I've said ............

Friday, December 22, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 12/22/2017

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

The $NASI actually had a little dinky POSITIVE divergence this week, the green lines, which is totally different than what it's been doing. Of course, it still has the huge NEGATIVE divergence on the over all chart .............

(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up by StockCharts.com)

The $CRB joined the GLD, $USD and VWO on the sell side, 20sma under 50sma, I have NO IDEA how GOLD and the dollar can both be lower, but I've given up on trying to explain how this FED induced bull shit works. 


"The all important Bullish Percent indexes" stayed with five that are still on sell signals, , but the $BPCOMPQ closed only TWO CENTS from a new buy signal and the $BPMATE is 12 cents away.


EVERY SINGLE SECTOR ON BUY SIGNALS, although the XLU is only 3 cents away from a new sell signal. 


We moved up to 59 of my 81 markets being higher on the week, vs 46 last week, and again, Chile was the hot market for the week, ECH up 9.03%, followed by EPU at 8.64%, then our best sector was XME, up 7.18%, then energy with OIH and XLE, the IGE, as "Traders" were betting that the WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC BOOM will need millions of tons of MORE EXPENSIVE natural resources. MY major, GDX, was up 4.09% on the week, XRT moved up because they figured that people will buy more shit knowing that Wall Street is dollaring down on their tax reform welfare given to them by the Republicrats.  IYT was higher as they need trucks and trains and planes to haul out that stuff, and XHB was up because, well, with the average house costing the most in history Traders figure John Q pulic will just buy the shit out of them, wooooo hooooo!
You had to go to page two to find our best major, IWM up .62% in 39th spot, then DIA up .47%, then SPY at .38%, both on the third page, and then, well, that's it .........

Only 7 markets closed on 20 day highs this week vs 10 last week, EIDO, EPI, IGE, TUR, XLB, XLE, XME, it was actually a lousy week for the 10 from last week as only 4 closed higher on the week, not a very good performance for the Turtles trading strat. 

Four closed on 20 day lows vs four last week, all of them furriners as they were EWK, EWP, EWS, and EWW, 2 of the 4 from last week were winners, IE they were down on the week, VXX and XLU.  

 

Our worst sector was XLU, which moved up from the two spot last week, down 4.67%, IYR was in the five spot and TLT seventh, as none of them seemed to like higher interest rates, the dollar was down .65%, because, well, it "USUALLY" goes UP on higher interest rates, but like I said, I don't DO the FED induced ahole crap, our worst major made the first page, the NasDOGS, QQQ down a MASSIVE .18% on the week, just horrible, I could just hear the over extened tech buyers screaming about all the margin calls, he he .............


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 this week, and AA is the big one, up 17% on a couple of ANAL-lyst upgrades and a positive Barrons article, citing some one's $55 price target. Like I've mentioned before, I traded the heck out of this thing back when it was the only company and $8 with an 8 P/E, but since the split I have no idea what it is or why it should be trading at $50 with a 34 P/E


Here's the losers, 285 were HIGHER on the week vs 261 last week, at least that number improved, hhhhhmmmm, I can't really see a "THEME" in those stocks, in fact, I'm totally stoked that ANY THING is lower, what with that Corporate Welfare package .................


Saturday, December 16, 2017

TOS Buy/Sell scan results for week of 12/15/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
The daily signals are best for the one week of results while the Weekly signals should probably be considered longer term swing trades, I, MAY, do like a monthly or quarterly update to see how they did on the longer term time frames.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The "TTM SQUEEZE" is just for information purposes as it's not a signal, it merely alerts you to the possibility of a big move up coming, either higher or lower.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same. There are seven markets that average less than 100K shares a day, five are Country ETF's which I include for obvious reasons, EIS as it would signal a new war in the middle east first, EIRL, IDX, EWK, EPU, one currency, FXF, which is the Swiss Franc, and GCC is a commodity fund.

Daily signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 60% winners.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: None
MACD Histogram buy signal: 57% winners
4 Hour MACD buy signal: 60% losers, but a 8.47% winner in ECH.
MACD Histogram sell signal: 100% winners, big winner of 7% in VXX.
4 Hour MACD sell signal: None.
Positive ROC(13) Cross:  66% losers,

Negative ROC(13) Cross: 100% winner.
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: 80% winners.
Close below T-Line: 80% losers
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 100% winners, XIV was up 7.2%. 
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 100% winner with VXX. 

The multiple buy signals were 62% Winners.
The multiple sell signals were 100% winners..


Here's the DAILY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: ACWI, VTI, GLD, SMH, EZA

PPS sell signal for Monday: EWC, EUFN, XLE, EWS

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: IYR, QQQ, XLK, ILF, GDX
       "     4 HOUR MACD Cross: EIRL, XLK, XLV
                                                 
Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EGPT, EWC, EWD, EWP, JNK, OIH, RSP, XRT
        "     4 Hour MACD Cross: EWC, EWN

Positive ROC(13) Cross: IYR, QQQ

Negative ROC(13) Cross: EWC, EWJ, EWL, EWS, VGK, XLB

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: NONE

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: EWI, EWQ, EZU

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EIS, EWH, EWT, GDX, SMH

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EGPT, IGE, IYT, OIH, RSP, VGK, XLE, XLF

"TTM SQUEEZE" : IWM, USO

Multiple buy signals: GDX, IYR, QQQ, SMH, XLK

Multiple SELL signals: EGPT, EWC, EWS, OIH, RSP, VGK, XLE

NOTES:


This is the same chart of OIH from two weeks ago, it has pulled back to the lower boundry line, so, despite having multiple sell signals on the systems, the inverse H and S is still valid over $26, but if it breaks that lower boundry line next week the pattern is done. TUR and XBI have regular Head and Shoulders paterns working.
The "Systems" had a very good week, although probably not good enough to make up for the horrible week last week.


Both the QQQ and XLK had multiple "BUY" signals, I don't "DO" indexes any more, but if you bought these when they were $20 back in 2010 I certainly see no reason not to continue to hold. As far as a NEW buy, well, Ya gotta do wad Ya gotta do, if I could print worthless digital money out of thin air and use it to buy the indexes, like the FED, then, yea, I'd do it, but more likely I'd use the money to buy bombs and get rid of the FED! Both are approaching the upper trend line resistance, which, of course, pretty much means nothing. A break of that lower ending wedge trend line "MIGHT" mean some thing. By the by, the RSI 13 and RSI 5 on the monthly charts are the highest they have been since July of 1999.
AAPL's earnings are up 7.47% over the last year and the stock 50.21%, AMZN's earnings are DOWN 11.8% over the last year and the stock is UP 54.95% over the last year, MSFT's earnings are up 17.9% and the stock is up 38.78%, FB earnings are up 38.5% over the last year and the stock is up 49.44%, which is actually the best of the bunch, as far as the earnings to the stock price rise.
My point is that these four stocks make up 34.5% of the QQQ's and 11% of the SPY, and if Da Boyz EVER decide that enough is enough, and decide to "reset" them to a more reasonable earnings to price run up, well, there will be a violent reaction in the over all markets.


GDX, which is one of MY "majors", also had multiple buy signals this week, the chart looks like DOG poop, I especially don't like the bearish engulfing candle on Friday, ALTHOUGH, I posted the seasonality chart on it last week and it "tends" to bottom in December, which, MIGHT, mean it's going to go back and test that slightly higher low it made on Monday. This index has 52 companies in it of which 30 are US based, the top four holdings are NEM, ABX, FNV and NCM, the last being an Australian stock, the next US stock is GG, those four make up about 32% of the index, very similar to the FAAM stocks above. NEM earnings are up 23% this year and the stock 16%, ABX 123% and the stock .43% (that's POINT 43%), FNV 13.8% earnings and the stock is up 38.74%, and GG earnings up 103% and the stock 1.48% ...............
FNV is the only one with FAAM type of metrics, the rest seem a little under valued if you ask me, you didn't, but I offered my opinion .........

Weekly signals last week:

PPS BUY SIGNAL: 60% losers.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: 66% winners.
MACD Histogram buy signal: 100% higher.
MACD Histogram sell signal: 75% winners..
Positive ROC: 80% winners
Negative ROC(13) Cross:  57% winners
Close above T-Line: None.
Close below T-Line: 100% losers.
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 66% winners.
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: 60% winners.
The multiple buy signals were 75% winners ..
Multiple SELL signals: 60% losers.

Here's the WEEKLY signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: AMLP, EPHE, EWA

PPS sell signal for Monday: EWI, XLU

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: AMLP, XME

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: GCC, SMH, XLU

Positive ROC(13) Cross: EWA, EZA, IYR, TLT

Negative ROC(13) Cross: EPU, EWI, EWP, OIH

8 EMA CLOSED ABOVE 21 EMA: NONE

8 EMA CLOSED BELOW 21 EMA: EWD, GCC

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EWA, EWU, XLV, XME

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EWC, IGE, SMH, UUP

"TTM SQUEEZE": EWI, VWO

Multiple buy signals: AMLP, EWA, XME

Multiple SELL signals: EWI, GCC, XLU

NOTES:

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE, as in ZERO, ZILCH, no decent entries for you ....... on either the daily or weekly charts

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM calls into RSI(13) over bought conditions, IE OVER 80 on the daily charts: NONE
On the weekly charts: ACWI, DIA, SPY, VTI

Which reminds me to say what I say every week:

"OVER BOUGHT" can stay "OVER BOUGHT" for LONG periods of time, as can "OVER SOLD".

NOTE: "PROBABLY", "IF", "MAYBE", "EXPECTED", "MIGHT", etc etc etc, are called "DISCLAIMERS", meaning I don't know what I'm doing and you would be well advised by your financial Adviser to completely IGNORE any thing I've said ............

Friday, December 15, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 12/15/2017

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

The $NASI actually rolled over again, to kind of give it a double divergent look, hahahahaha, I obviously think it's hilarious ......


(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up by StockCharts.com)

We stayed at three of my 12 major markets on sell signals, 20sma under 50sma, but we had a change, the $TRAN joined the ranks of the buys, and GLD and $USD were joined by VWO on the sell side. 


"The all important Bullish Percent indexes" stayed with five that are still on sell signals, but they changed a little again, this week the $BPNYA $BPINDY went to buy signals, while $BPMATE and $BPINFO joined $BPENER, $BPCOMPQ and $BPGDM on sell.


XLV and XME went to buy signals this week, XME by a whooping 3 cents, to make EVERY SINGLE SECTOR ON BUY SIGNALS. 


46 of my 81 markets were higher on the week, again, ECH was the winner followed by XIV, AMLP finally got off of it's butt and went higher along with EWA, our best major showed up on the first page this week, QQQ up 1.91%, then you had to go to the bottom of the page for number two, DIA up 1.08%, then IWM at .55%, with the SPY bringing up the rear, up .38% for the week, all of it on Friday, TLT made the first page, up 1.31% as people were fleeing into the safety of bonds, eeeerr, that can't be right ........ both GDX and SLV both made the first page as people were fleeing into the safety of PM's, eeeeeerrrr, that can't be right ..................

Only 10 markets closed on 20 day highs this week vs 7 last week, I say only because I thought there would be a lot more, EIRIL, VTI, IWF, THD, OEF, TLT, EIS, QQQ, EWM, and XIVand EIRL are repeats from last week, five of the seven from last week were higher on the week with only EWI and XRT lower. 

Four closed on 20 day lows vs three last week, EPU, EWD, VXX and XLU, VXX was a hold over from last week and joined the other two, XLE and DBA, as lower on the week. 


All foreign stuff were the winners of the losers this week, our worst sector was XBI, then XLU and XRT, oil had a bad week with OIH, XLE, and DBC on the list, I honestly have no idea why XHB and XLU are down as the ten year yield was LOWER on the week, the entire materials sector was lower in XLB. 


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500 this week, and ...........


Here's the losers, only 261 were HIGHER on the week, not a very impresive performance at all .................


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