Saturday, September 23, 2017

TOS scan results for week of 9/22/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on "Liquidity" (highest volume), there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same.

Last week:
PPS BUY SIGNAL: Terrible performance this week, five of the eight were losers, for a 37% win rate.
PPS SELL SIGNAL: This was better, with four of the six as winners, that is, lower on the week, for a 66.66666% win rate.
MACD Histogram buy signal: NONE
MACD Histogram sell signal: 100% win rate with EPU for a whooping .05%.
Positive ROC(13) Cross:75% win rate with 3 of the 4 being winners, although the loser was big, EWT down 2.27%, but that's why you have stop losses.

Negative ROC(13) Cross: GDX was down 2.74% on the week for a 100% win rate. 
Close above T-Line, 8 EMA:Horrible T-Line again this week, five of six were losers.
Close below T-Line: Much better, 4 of 6 were winners for 75%.
HULL MA(21) changed to green: 50%, although neither one moved much.
HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE
The multiple buy signals had were 66% losers, with IDX and EIDO down and FXI up, not much movement.
The multiple sell signals were better, with 60% down on the week.


Here's the signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: NONE

PPS sell signal for Monday: EEM, EWH, FXI, THD, VTI, XME

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: NONE

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EEM, EWH, EWM, FXI, TAN, UNG

Positive ROC(13) Cross: EIDO, EWA, EWW, IDX, XLK

Negative ROC(13) Cross: NONE

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: EGPT, EIDO, EPU, EWL, EWP, EWS, EWW, EWZ, FXE, JNK, XPY, TAN, XRT

Close below T-Line: EEM, EWH, FXI, THD, VTI

HULL MA(21) changed to green: NONE

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EWH, EWL, EWZ, IDX, UNG, VOO

Multiple buy signals: EIDO, EWW

Multiple SELL signals: EEM, EWH, FXI, THD, VTI

NOTES:  ... a lot more multiple SELL signals than BUY signals, which means the stupid markets will probably go HIGHER, sigh ........


I ran the John Carter "TTM SQUEEZE" scan, I don't include this scan in the strategies scans because it's not a "Directional" scan, the squeeze scan only says that a BIG MOVE is possible coming out of a period of consolidation.
I bring this up because only two showed up on the daily scan, UUP and EWW, two that I'm not interested in, and only ONE showed up on the 60 minute scan, XLK.
Now, you generally wait for a directional signal on the squeeze indicator, and in the green circle in the center chart down at the bottom we see that it's on YELLOW bars and they are UNDER the ZERO signal line, IE, it's on a SELL signal but the momentum is moving to the UPSIDE, the buy signal would come when the first bar gets above the ZERO line and turns green.
The interesting part is the green arrows, the PPS on the right chart has crossed to a buy signal on the upside, in the center chart the ROC has triggered above the ZERO line and the STOCH has crossed in a buy signal, and on the left chart the HULL MA has just turned GREEN, and the MACD at the bottom is just now crossing to the upside.
The one big negative is the red circle in the left chart, that's Dave Landry's "BOW TIE", where the three MA's have crossed to the down side in a sell signal, and show NO signs of starting to move to the upside. The buy signal on a Bow Tie is EXACTLY the opposite of the sell signal we got in the two candles in the red circle, we came down out of Tuesday, then bounced with two green bars right to the underside of the Bow Tie, then opened Thursday with that huge red bar to the down side. That's called a retest, naturally, and that is what we would want to see to the upside, first a Bow Tie, and then come back down and "test" the BT and then move higher.
For you NasDOG bulls, IE, Da QQQ's, they are "fairly" close to the XLK, BUTT, there is no Squeeze, ROC, MACD or HULL signals, so, Udder Dan Dat, they are EXACTLY the same .....................
I'm not saying those items aren't going to go positive right away, only that they haven't happened, yet ...............


You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE


Friday, September 22, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 9/22/2017



(click on image for larger view, I hope)

The $NAAD's actually look the best they've looked in a while, as they are leading the markets higher, making new highs before the $COMPQ. 


(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up set by StockCharts.com)

The signals in my 12 major markets this week  also look the best they have in a long time, with only one on a sell, 20sma below 50, $USD, and who cares about the dollar as the FED thinks it's wonderful when it sells off. 


"The all important Bullish Percent indexes" still look horrible, as I said last week and the week before,  as we remain with 10 of the 12 on sell signals, $BPINFO is only four cents away from a new buy signal.


We had a big move in the sectors this week, dropping from six sectors on sell down to only three, XLY, XLF and XLP. XLE, XLI, XHB and XRT moved into buy signals this week. 


Not a particularly good week for my eighty markets as 43 finished higher on the week vs 66 last week. None of our "majors" made the front page BUT one major "event" is just a few cents away, that being my modified "DOW Theory" buy signal, since the $INDU is more of a "financial" index these days than an "Industrial" index, I use the IYT and XLI for the signal, and the IYT is just 66 cents away from joining the XLI at new highs for a new buy signal. The banks had a good week, KRE and XLF, as yields moved up this week, with higher yields the dollar moved up which meant, of course, oil and PM's went down ........... oh, wait, oil went UP 1.54% on the week, I guess the oil cartel didn't get the news.
Our best "major" made the first page, with the little guys being the winners, as they HATE higher bond yields  ......... oh, wait, I guess they LOVE higher yields, as IWM was up 1.33% for the week, I guess I could rag on the IYT as well as I guess the air lines and truckers LOVE higher oil prices, wad ever, the DIA were next at .34%, then SPY at .10%, or 25 cents higher for the week.


We had 13 stocks close on 20 day highs this week vs 18last week, 7 of the 18 finished lower on the week for a 61% win rate, kind of middling. 

We had four stocks finish on 20 day lows this week, EIP, TUR, XLP and XLU, the last two were obviously down because of the increase in bond yields this week, with the yield chasers loving those MASSIVE ten year yields of 2.26%. The one 20 day low from last week was down this week as well, VXX, for a 100% win rate, wooo hooo!


The one notable on the first page of the loser's list for the week is in the 13 spot, the NasDOGS, QQQ, were down 1.19% on the week, which makes it a bifurcated major week,  GDX finished way out of the expected range again this week, so I'm glad I canned the put/call sells, it bounced a little Friday but it's clearly on sell for right now.


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, seems like a lot of oil stocks for such a small bounce in crude this week, hope springs eternal, the big winners was that bunch of crooks EFX, Ya know, XLI has 60 wonderful stocks in it and this piece of shit, I mean, WTF?? No other financials but they have this thing in the index????


Here's the losers, CPB was down 7.39%, another TEN POINTS and I might, MIGHT, get interested in it again. I assume that one in the 14th was because a lot of people thought N. Korea had a bad week or some thing .............


Saturday, September 16, 2017

TOS scan results for week of 9/16/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on highest volume, there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same.

Last week:
The two buy signals for the PPS were split, with a .11% gain for EIDO and a 1.1% loss for XLU, which had a 41 cent dividend paid on Friday, I believe.
With the up week in the markets the sell signals in the PPS were a disaster, with 3 winners and 8 losers for a 72% losing rate, the three losers averaged 1.23% while the losers averaged a huge 2.43%, of course, that's why we have stop losses in place.
The MACD buy signal in EWN had a gain of .97%, while the sell signals had two winners, EZA and TUR for a 1.3% gain, while the three losers averaged 2.12%.
The two ROC shorts were, of course, losers, with UNG UP 4.5% and XLP .24%.
The T-Line buy signals had two winners averaging .26%, while the loser, VXX, lost 11.79%, sigh.The short signal was a big loser as well, with a 75% losing rate, the four winners averaged 1.16% and the eight losers 3.49%, that included a 12.43% gain in XIV.
Do I have to keep going?
Throwing out VXX and XIV the Hull MA had two winners on the short side, EZA and TUR, and one slightly huge loser in UNG.
The multiple buy signals had one winner and one loser, the EIDO winner was just slightly out gained by the VXX loser.
The multiple sell signals were horrendous, with a 33% win rate, the winners averaging 1.23% and the losers 4.27%, which includes the XIV loss.

My "Of Note" last week was certainly prophetic as I didn't like the sell set ups and noted that SOH, sitting on hands, was the best strategy. I'd love to think that we whip sawed back into an all clear on the up side last week, but in this crazy market it's hard to count on any thing.

Here's the signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: EIRL, EPHE, EWM, FXI, GCC, IDX, IYR, VWO

PPS sell signal for Monday: EPU, EWA, IYT, XLP, XLV, XLY

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: NONE

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EPU

Positive ROC(13) Cross: EWP, EWT, FXI, XLF

Negative ROC(13) Cross: GDX

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: EIDO, IDX, EWH, EWT, FXE, FXI

Close below T-Line: EWA, IYT, UUP, XLP, XLU, XLY

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EIDO, JNK

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: NONE

Multiple buy signals: EIDO, FXI, IDX

Multiple SELL signals: EPU, EWA, IYT, XLP, XLY

NOTES: The Heisman winning offensive coordinator for BYU may not be hanging on to his job for much longer .............
Oops, excuse me, I was thinking to myself, hhuuuummmmmm, based on the "STRATEGY" that has been working, you take what ever you have learned about markets in your life, throw that information OUT, and just SOH and let some one else lose money .........
OR, you could take all those stinking short signals above and buy the SHIT out of them! Accept in Japanese stocks of course, as since the Bank of Japan owns like 70% of all the companies in Japan they do not allow short selling, so there's really no one left to buy, other than the BOJ buying the last 30% they don't own ...

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NWL


Friday, September 15, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 9/15/2017


YAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYY: WALL STREET LOOOOOOVES A SHITTY RETAIL SALES REPORT, THE EMPIRE MANUFACTURING INDEX DROPPING FROM LAST MONTH, A HORRIBLE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NUMBER, CAPACITY UTILIZATION FALLING, YAAAAAYYY, LET'S TAKE THE MARKET HIGHER!!
Actually, the markets were higher on the lousy Michigan sentiment number, as since Michigan is the biggest welfare state in the nation they must be running out of free money since the Obama Salama budgets run out this month ..............


JAPAN RESIDENTS ADVISED TO TAKE COVER AS NORTH KOREA LAUNCHES MISSILES

YAAAAAAAAAYYYYYY, WALL STREET LOOOOOOOOVES NUCLEAR WAR, YAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYY!!

‘I heard a scream and then there was smoke’: Explosion hits London subway, injuring at least 22

YAAAAAAYYYYYYY, WALL STREET LOOOOOOOVES BLOOD AND GUTS IN THE SUBWAYS OF LONDON, YAAAAAAAAAYYYYYY!!

Oracle shares have worst day in four years, but analysts still love it
YAAAAAAYYYYYYY, THE WORST THE FORECAST GETS THE MORE THE STREET LOOOOOOOOVES IT!!

OK, the way I see it, if we can just get a nuclear war going over the weekend, kill a million people in subways, and get the FANG stocks to all give earnings warnings over the weekend, STINKING WALL STREET WILL GO CRAZY WITH GLEE AND SEND DA MARKETS TO DA STINKING MOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNN!!!!

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

Ok, I'm sorry, enough of the BS, I just can't help myself though when Da Street does dumb shit stuff like that, go to new ATH's in the face of horrible news, wad ever.  The $NAAD's are actually looking pretty decent as they are trying, FINALLY, to reach new highs to match the new highs in the "markets". 


(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up set by StockCharts.com)

We stayed at four sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, $NYA, $USD, $TRAN and the IWM. The $NYA is 6 cents away from a new buys signal, so ANY up day Monday and it's up up and away. 


"The all important Bullish Percent indexes" still look horrible, as I said last week, but they got better this week, as we dropped to 9 on sell signals vs 10 last week, the $BPSTAP, the good old staples, just managed to go to buy on Friday.


YEEAAAAAAAA, we dropped another one this week, as the sectors went from 7 to only 6 on SELL, the XLB joined the buy party this week. 

The GDX took another loss this week, this time to the DOWN SIDE, as we closed .37 cents under the $24.50 put sell from last week. That's two out of the last three weeks so I'm cutting it off, it was fun while it lasted. 


It was a good week for my eighty markets, 66 finished higher on the week. Two of our majors made the front page with IWM and DIA, the little dogs and the big dogs, up 2.29% and 1.93% respectively, the QQQ were on the next page at 33rd up 1.28%, with the SPY bringing up the rear, up 1.08% for the week. Oil, bankds and Semi's had a good week as I guess the perception is that the WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC BOOM is back on, which I guess is supposed to be the "justification" for the 90, 26, 24 and 20 P/E's, according to the WSJ, for the IWM, QQQ, SPY and DIA. Sounds good to me, I heard one ANAL....lyst, saying that with the FED holding rates at ZERO we could ACTUALLY "justify" a 30 P/E, woooo hoooo, go for it ...................


We had 18 stocks close on 20 day highs this week vs 21 last week, only three of the 21 finished lower this week, and FXF and FXE don't really matter, so it had a 85.7% win rate this week. 

The one 20 day low last week, UUP, was, NATURALLY, UUP this week, for a 100% loss on our massive shorts .. NOT! Not surprisingly we only had ONE low this week, VXX, and for years you could short this with impunity, but being on the short list "almost" guarantees it will go to Da MOOOOOON next week!


Here's the loser's for the week, only 14 of them, and with the ten year yield AND the dollar UP on the week PM's took it on the chin, with GDX, SLV and GLD the top three losers, TLT, XHB and XLU were down with the higher rates, and XBI was down only for reasons known by those crazy Biotech inwestors ...


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I usually don't comment on them but this is a little interesting, you can literally see the ROTATION that seems to be going on, as the top 13 have a LOT of RED in the columns to the right, from the Quater all the way out to the YTD totals, as Da Boyz seem to be bargain hunting. There's two exceptions, NVDA in the 4 spot, one of the single most over valued POS's in the market on a P/E basis, and GPS in the 9 spot, one of the most UNDER valued stocks in the SP 500 on a P/E basis.


Here's the losers, there's not any rotation out of those two at the top as they have been dogs all year, HSIC and EFX, I see nothing I'm interested in although NEM shows up down at 19th, but it's run up way to much for me, I'll wait until it gets back to $17. 


Sunday, September 10, 2017

TOS scan results for week of 9/9/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on highest volume, there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same.

Last week:
All 5 buy signals for the PPS worked for a 100% win rate, averaging 1.38% for the week, unfortunately the PPS sell signals also had a 100% rate, a LOSING rate, averaging a .61% for the three stocks.
The MACD buy signals had 3 out of 4 winners, averaging 1.59% for the week, the loser, EWS, was down .48%.
The ROC didn't have a great week with half higher, the four winners averaged 2.5% while the 4 loser's were -.60%, so it was a big percentage win. There were no short signals.
The T-Line buy signals were slightly better with 3 losers out of the 8, averaging 1.44%, the losers averaged -1.321%, with XLF a huge drag down 2.43% on the week.The short signal was a big loser, with only one, JNK, .89% lower on the week, the other six averaged a .84% loss, IE, they were higher on the week.
The Hull MA Green signal had 1 of 2 winners, EWA was up .71%, unfortunately we had that roach XLF on the other trade.  The red signal was even worse, with EPHE up 1.31% for the week.
The multiple buy signals were mixed on the week, with three of five winners, and of course XLF was the big drain again, EWS was down .48%.
The multiple sell signals were ALL losers, with BND, TLT and FXE higher on the week.

Here's the signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: EIDO, XLU

PPS sell signal for Monday: DBC, EPI, EZA, QQQ, SMH, TUR, UNG, USO, XLK, XLY, XME

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: EWN

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: EZA, JNK, TUR, UNG, XLK

Positive ROC(13) Cross: NONE

Negative ROC(13) Cross: UNG, XLP

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: EIDO, IDX, VXX

Close below T-Line: ECH, EPI, EWS, EZA, FXI, QQQ, SMH, TUR, USO, XIV, XLK, XME

HULL MA(21) changed to green: VXX

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EZA, TUR, UNG, XIV

Multiple buy signals: EIDO, VXX

Multiple SELL signals: EPI, EZA, QQQ, SMH, TUR, UNG, USO, XLK, XIV, XME

OF NOTE: Obviously, it's the QQQ, SMH and XLK sell signals, and combined with the XIV sell signals and VXX buy signals, it definitely do not look GOOD!
However, weekly sell signals have not worked worth a damn for quite a while, and on a chart basis there is ZERO reason to be short the Q's, there is, however, a reason to be a little prudent, and wait for decent buy set ups, or wait for a roll over and rally to give a decent short set up. IE, sitting on hands is not a bad strategy.

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in: NONE


Friday, September 08, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 9/8/2017


Nothing changed in the $NAAD's, we gapped down to start the week and finished on the low close, there's a billion sites that show this. 


This is the most disgusting chart EVER, and of course it's earnings vs the SPX for the last year, that line going down is earnings. Maybe some day people will care about funnymentals again, but right now it don't stinking matter! I gave up in 2015 and 2016 when earnings went down for six quarter, F**K IT!!


(click on image for larger view, I hope)
(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up set by StockCharts.com)

We stayed at four sell signals in my 12 major markets this week, 20sma below 50, $NYA, $USD, $TRAN and the IWM. The SPY may look like it moved to a sell signal, but it closed the week an awe inspiring SIX STINKING CENTS on the buy side, it would take one whole BID/ASK spread to send it to a sell, hahahaha ...........


"The all important Bullish Percent indexes" still look horrible, as I said last week, little knowing that they would get WORSE this week as the $BPENER joined the party to make it TEN out of the 12 $BP indexes on SELL. THIS, of course, is how it's been for a while now, with a few mega caps holding up the indexes almost on their own. Oh, by the way, that horrible drop at the lower right corner is just a tiny little part of the major indexes, It's called the $BPFINA, or as some people call them, the financials, as in JPM, BAC, WFC, etc etc .........
some people say we are in serious trouble if the banks are doing badly, I haven't seen any trouble yet.


YEEAAAAAAAA, the sectors actually went from 8 to only 7 on SELL, the XLV closed on Friday with a new buy signal by a massive THREE cents! It a lot easier to just say the XLK, XLU, XME, and XLP are on buy with the one above.


We bounced back from the loss last week in GDX, which is a good sign, we were a loser at the close on Thursday but just managed to close in the green on Friday.


The new "expected" move on the upside next week is "expected" to be to $26 on the upside and the lower bound is $24.49, so you sell the 26 calls if you are brave as hell and the lower strike is 24.50 puts,again if you are a brave individual. The "RANGE" made a big jump this week to .75 cents, it's been hanging around the .60 cent range for a long time. 


It was a decent week for my eighty markets, 49 finished higher on the week. EWZ was the winner, but that stupid VXX was in the two spot, I've seen that thing go DOWN when the market goes down, so I guess it shouldn't be a surprise with 49 winners, and obviously our majors were NOT in those winners. Oil and PM's were the best sectors, XHB was a winner as the ten year yield dropped a whooping 4.46% this week to 2.061%, I guess people are just piling into the highest price housing market in the entire history of the Country.


We had 21 stocks close on 20 day highs this week vs 27 last week, nine of the 27 from last week finished lower this week for a .666% win rate.

We had no 20 day lows last week and only one this week, UUP, which is NOT, UP, that is. One interesting note is of the four stocks that were short winners last week we had a 50% win rate this week, as KRE and XLF got crushed by interest rates. 


Here's the loser's for the week, and speak of the devils KRE, XLF and UUP are the top three winners, other than XIV, Da Q's tried hard not to be out done on the doggie side, QQQ down 1.36%, DIA made the front page at -.58%, you had to go to page two for the SPY at -.34%, with the little guys our big winners for the week, IWM down .36%, just ripping the SPY a new one ............


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, I never heard of the one at the top, ABBV, but I do know a lot of the others.


EFX is a crack up, hahahahaha, I looked on their site and they are offering all kinds of extra stuff if you sign up in order to "safe guard" your information, hahahahahahahaha, typical Wall Street roach's, I see the TV media didn't do so well, toys are sucking it, MAT is red for last YEAR, all the cruise ships are lower because, of course, the hurricanes will probably last FOREVER!!


Sunday, September 03, 2017

TOS scan results for week of 8/25/2017 and the new picks for the coming week

These are TOS scans of my 80 ETF markets with some of the typical trading strategies available in the Think or Swim scanner, these are NOT recommendations to buy or sell, simply weekly testing of these various strategies to prove they are complete BS or, some times, actually work. The signal day, of course, is based on probably the worst day of the week, Friday, but I use that to give me time on the weekend to update.
Multiple signals in one direction, "CAN" (that's a disclaimer), be a sign of a change in direction in certain markets or sectors.
The 80 ETF's are based strictly on highest volume, there are no leveraged funds with the exception of XIV and VXX, there are no inverse funds, and I try not to double up on similar funds or asset classes, although most of the "major" indexes are basically the same.

Last week:
7 of the 10 buy signals for the PPS worked for a 70% win rate, only EUFN, EWK and EWP sucked, and the only sell signal signal, UNG,  lost a whooping 30 cents, UNG was the only multiple sell signal last week.
The MACD buy signals, EWD and EWC, were both winners.
The ROC buy was a big win for the devil, 66.6% win rate,  which was completely wiped out by the 100% loss in the ROC sell signals, as "Inwestors" bought the NK gap down on Tuesday hand over fist.
The devil was working the T-Line buy signals as 12 of the 18 worked, with the losers averaging .26% and the winners 1.3%. UNG was the only sell signal.
The Hull MA Green signal had 11 of 13 winners, only EWP and EWK skunked out. The two red signals were both losers, UNG, SLV was up 62 cents on the week.

Here's the signals for this week:

PPS buy signal for Monday: EWM, EWQ, EZU, XLP, USO

PPS sell signal for Monday: BND, TLT, FXE

Positive MACD Histogram Cross: EWO, ILF, EWS, EWQ

Negative MACD Histogram Cross: FXE

Positive ROC(13) Cross: EWS, EWW, OIH, XHB, XLE, XLI, XLY, XRT

Negative ROC(13) Cross: NONE

Close above T-Line, 8 EMA: EIDO, EPHE, EWG, EWM, IDX, UUP, XLF, XLP

Close below T-Line: BND, DBA, FXE, FXF, JNK, TLT, XLU

HULL MA(21) changed to green: EMA, XLF

HULL MA(21) changed to RED: EPHE

Multiple buy signals: EWM, EWQ, EWS, XLF, XLP

Multiple SELL signals: BND, TLT, FXE

Conflicting signals: EPHE

OF NOTE: NEGATIVE bond signals, meaning HIGHER interest rates, and NEGATIVE FXE signals, meaning a HIGHER dollar, SHOULD (and that's a big SHOULD) be NEGATIVE for GOLD and GDX, and possibly SLV.

You, "MIGHT", consider selling OTM puts into RSI(13) over sold conditions, IE UNDER 20, in:

CPB
HPE
SJM

CAUTION: "OVER SOLD", can get wwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyy, MORE, "OVER SOLD"!!!!!

Friday, September 01, 2017

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 9/1/2017

(click on image for larger view, I hope)

The $NAAD's, on a CUMULATIVE chart, did the same exact thing they did in the red circle on the left back in 2015, that was coming off of ATH's just before a pull back and side ways for over a year. I realize it doesn't look like much, but all the major market dumps started just the same way. The bulls hope its just a whip saw like above the question mark. 
I hate to associate any thing with this week, it being the last week of August and just before Labor Day weekend, but it's kind of surprising that in the SPY the volume was the third highest for the week going back to the start of July. 
By the way, that's about the ONLY kind of worrisome breath thing I see, every other indicator looks all right.  


(NOTE: A cross of the 20/50 sma is NOT a trading "strategy", I merely use it for breath comparison purposes to provide continuity, this is the standard set up set by StockCharts.com)

We moved to four sell signals in my 12 major markets this week vs 3 last week, 20sma below 50,  the  $NYA joined the $USD, $TRAN and the IWM. It doesn't mean much for after all the $NYA is just a minor little index ............


"The all important Bullish Percent indexes" still look horrible,the
$BPFINA joined eight from last week to make it 9 out of 12 major indexes on sell, this is very indicative of the indexes being held up by a few MEGA cap stocks like the FAANG's, which were all up on the week over 2%, this explains the sell signals despite hitting ATH's in the NasDOGS. One GOOD thing is that the MAJOR indexes on the top row at least have managed to reclaim the 20 MA on a price basis.

XLF joined XLB, XLY, XRT, XLV, XLE, XLI, and XHB on sell signals this week, meaning eight of the 12 sectors are on sell, I mean, really, that's GOOD, honest ......... again .........


Well, we finally got stabbed by GDX, if you sold the $24 calls you lost about 40 cents, minus what ever you got for the $22.50 puts, which wasn't more than 10 cents.

The new "expected" move on the upside next week is "expected" to be to $25.38 on the upside and the lower bound is $24.18, so you sell the 25.50 calls and the lower strike is 24 puts, if you have any guts left. My personal "theory" is that once you get a loss after a long string of wins the losses continue to mount, BUTT, if you can come right back with a win it will counter act the negative vibes maaaaaannnnnnnn .......................... sssooooooooooo ..........

Good week for the markets, XBI dominated, which since I don't "DO" biotech I wouldn't have known that, that rotten GDX was right there up 5.85% (notice how fast I can turn on some thing, hahahaha), XME was up 5.14%, Putin was the best country ETF, RSX up 4.1%, our best major index made the first page with the NasDOGS up 2.84%, then IWM up 2.66%, you had to go to 32nd to find the SPY at 1.34%,  with the Big Dogs being pretty Doggie this week, DIA up .86%.


We had 27 stocks close on 20 day highs this week vs 20 last week, seven of the 20 from last week finished lower this week for a 65% win rate.

AS you would expect with the big up week of the 25 from last week that closed on 20 day lows only 4 finished lower this week, KRE,DBA, EWL, XLF,  for a win rate of 16%, which goes back to shorts not working very well.
Luckily, ZERO finished on 20 day lows this week, so we don't have to worry about getting our ass kicked being in shorts the coming week, woooooo hoooooo, I'm gonna get some puts because with that last statement it almost guarantees a big DOWN week, hahahahahahahaha!


Here's the loser's for the week, all of them in fact, oil was down AGAIN, you can see nothing but red to the right of USO for the last year, I have no idea why XLU is on the list as ten year yields went DOWN .55%, which is probably why the banks are on the losers list, but it helped GOLD, but I wonder how much as the dollar was up .10%, which doesn't help GOLD, wad ever ..............


Here's the beeg wieners in the SP 500, kind of a mish mash this week ...........


HPE was actually not a loser as they sold a part of their business, but if I read it right they sold some thing they paid 11 BILLION for and got some thing like 8.8 BILLION, but I could be wrong. That dog CPB is in third spot, but getting a little more reasonably valued, for some reason there's a few of what was formerly a HOT industry, insurance companies, on the first page, like TRV, PGR, RE, AIZ, ALL I guess what goes up eventually comes back to earth ................


Thursday, August 31, 2017

MONTHLY WRAP UP FOR 8/31/2017


Humft.... I don't "DO" biotech, so of course it's a complete surprise to me that they were the best performer of my 80 markets for the month of August, XBI up 8.62%, however it's NO surprise to me that GDX and SLV are following right behind at 8.56% and 6.25%, then ANOTHER surprise with Putin in fourth, RSX up 4.05%, GLD was ninth at 2.89%, then our second best industry was SMH, up 2.45%.
Then the next surprise as BONDS were the second best ASSET class in back of the PM's, TLT up .98%, if you exclude utilities, XLU up 2.27%, emerging markets were next, EEM up 1.96%, then TECH stocks were 21st, QQQ up 1.56%, real estate, IYR, up .56%, then the SPY was up a whooping .02%, and then, well, we have to go to the next list ..........


I thought sure the biggest loser would be the same one as always, VXX, but in a surprise it was XIV, oil took it on the chin this month with OIH, USO, and XLE on the first page of the "winners", banks sucked this month with KRE and XLF down 5.25% and 2.41%, GCC would be the worst asset class, commodities down 1.62%, then cash, UUP down .21%, along with our other two major indexes, IWM down .36% and the DIA down .17%, the little Dogs and the Big Dogs both sucked this month. Quite a divergence between the equal weight SP 500 RSP, down .79% compared to that massive UP move in SPY.
We were almost EXACTLY half and half for the month, with 39 losers and 41 winners, ONLY 42 % components are above their 50 DMA, all in all I'd say this was a pretty crappy month unless you happened to be in the right sector.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, you notice the big red block in the list above in the number 2 through the number 9 spot, they have been losing consistently for the last YEAR, while with the exception of VXX in the winners list up above they have been consistently WINNING for the last year.


These are the markets that closed on one month highs to end the month, before I get all excited I want to remind myself of this:


These closed on 20 day highs last month, eight losers and three winners, but I'm SURE it will be different in September, right? RIGHT???


These are the big winners in the SP 500 for the month, and the biggest surprise is that AA was the winner, up 17.70%, after they split the company I don't even look at it any more, this may explain part of the rise in AA:


That's a chart of aluuummiiiinum prices for the month from Kitco. 


Here's the loser's for the month in the SP 500, consumers are not buying shoes, those fancy watch thingeys, oil, toys, cable TV, credit cards, HP computers, and most important, that stinking Campbell's soup, that, WAS, the single most over valued POS in the SP 500, it's pulled back some 28% from it's high in February, so it's only horrendously over valued now with a 26 TTM P/E. 

blogger templates | Make Money Online