Sunday, December 25, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 12/23/2016 Part 1

I apologize in advance for this rambling POS post, basically I was "trying" to talk about Dave Landry's bow tie but I kind of let my emotions get in the way, which is why I don't post much any more, so, reader beware ...........


Here's a little cleaner chart of the SPY this week, this is my Dave Landry "Bow Tie" chart, the current "buy" signal being the green circle in November, Dave uses a 10 simple and a 20 and 30 EMA moving averages for the cross overs. Go to Dave's site or buy one of his books (I own two of them) for more information, I currently subscribe to his YouTube channel and watch his very informative weekly videos, I will confess that I don't watch his daily "Market in a Minute" videos, in fact, I actually don't care for it, but that's just me. Since I'm on Dave here's a little of my own "History", I found Dave in the early 2000's when I joined the "TradingMarkets.com" trading room for a year, I may have rejoined for a second year. It cost $600 for the year, and in that room the lead commentator was the great Larry Connors, he would hand off for most of the day to a very young John Carter, who is the only Million dollars in a year trader that I actually know and runs the Simpler options site, Kevin Haggerty who used to write for Market Watch, and Dave, there were a couple of others but I don't remember their names. Being a legend Larry could get pretty much whom ever he wanted to guest host in the room, I know Linda Raschke was a frequent guest, among others from the "Market Wizards" book.
It was pretty much worth the money, hahahahahaha ........ 

Now, the reason I like Dave is not because of the stupid "Bow Tie", it's because he uses a lot of common sense, and his main concerns are ALWAYS risk control, which is what we all should have as our number one priority as well. The "Tie" is only for trend identification and he mainly uses it at MAJOR inflection points, such as all time highs, but he doesn't use it on a daily chart like I have up there, but a longer term chart which I'll show below, I'm showing that chart because it has every thing in it that I want to talk about.
On the left side of the chart we had a whip saw "Tie" from a sell off the Brexit in late June to a buy in July off the "we LOVE the Brexit" move, that move immediately stalled at new ATH's that moved side ways into the new sell signal off of those ATH's in the red circle in September, which, for the Bulls, had a perfect retest of those prior ATH's in October and immediately proceeded to move slightly higher as if we were going to new ATH's, sucking the bull's in, and we then had the confirmation of that sell signal when we crashed through the prior ATH's, AGAIN, in early November, after the FBI confirmed what we all knew about the bitch, that she was a crook, of course ....
So with the lower low the sell signal is in complete control and we are undoubtedly headed for a lower low than those June lows on the left side, WHEN, at the "YAY" arrows, the FBI came out over the weekend just ahead of the election and said, well, maybe she's NOT a crook, and the markets exploded higher on Monday and Tuesday in anticipation of a Bitch victory shuffle, which she actually did on Tuesday night before the news came out that, GASP, the Donald was going to win, and the markets that had exploded higher for the udder candidate, REALLY exploded higher with the Donald win!!!

The following is a bunch of ranting bull shit and should be avoided at all costs:

I have to say, with the break of the October lows, then the gap up on the HRC FBI news, THEN the HUGE bar on the "Donald" win, makes this just about the most f**ked up markets I have EVER seen ................ and, sigh, my relatives, some of whom are up here in Utah for the Holidays to ski, are evenly split between the two camps, and I told them all that BOTH of those individuals were complete A-HOLES, and it's just un-fricking-beliveable to me that out of 300+ million people in this Country that's the best that those two A-HOLE parties in Washington can give us, and that I, Mr. my politics are about 8 standard deviations to the RIGHT of the Bush administration, and therefore one of the "Progressives" that the world Elite are so fearful of, had watched a couple of interviews with Jill Stein, and she hated HRC so much I decided, as a PROTEST vote, to throw my vote away on her! As a comic end result of all this my HRC relatives have sworn to leave the Country as a protest of the electoral college, my "DONALD" relatives have sworn to leave the Country as a protest against the A-HOLE as he got elected by Joe blow and now he's hiring nothing but the Wall Street bastards for his cabinet and advisors, and his proposed tax breaks for Wall Street will do NOTHING but enrich that very same Wall Street much the same way as the current thing renting the White House has done, AND, I'm leaving the Country as a protest against Stein taking HRC money in order to try and get a recount ............. so, in essence, there is not one damn person in my entire Family that is happy, hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha .......................... IE, we're as f**ked up as the market ...............

Ok, I'm done with that BS (political that is), we got the "buy" "TIE" in the green circle in November, which was not confirmed until the perfect "RETEST" jof the prior ATH's in the red circle for the last trading day of November and the first trading day of December. So that's it, we are on screaming buy signals, the MA's are not even CLOSE to even starting to turn down, the red box on there is another attempt at humor as that's the infamous "SANTA RALLY" that the MSM has been screaming about, hahahahahahahahaha ............... I guess now they will start screaming about the "YEAR END" rally and 20K, wad ever, go for it, me, myself and Irene are in OPTIONS, so I can sleep at night with well defined risk parameters.
The blue circle at the very top right shows the FOURTH MA line, which is the "HULL MA" indicator in Ninja Trader, which I've used since I got NT, and being a "visual" type I love it, it's been solid green since the "DONALD" day ..... it's interesting but on the equal weight RSP index the HULL MA is RED, but we don't want to talk about the entire SP 500, only those big caps that are forcing it higher.
We also don't want to talk about that MACD at the bottom that has turned red, as the MACD NEVER works, RIGHT?! Other than on THAT chart of course ....


So here's the REAL signal chart, we had the sell signal in the center when we "TIED" to the down side off of ATH's in September of 2015, and then CONFIRMED that when we made lower low's in January of this year, and since that "CONFIRMATION" this f**ked up market has done nothing but go higher ........... hahahahahahahahahaha ....
Ok, so we had the new buy "TIE" in April, and we've had no sell since then, the MA's pulled back but are back to heading higher. I had the circle at the red horizontal previous ATH line as Dave had said the short was over with long before that but he would not get interested in LONG until we took out the previous ATH's, which we did in July, so this signal is still LONG, although if you wanted to you could have "TRADED" it on those daily signals up above. 


My Market monitor had a lot of RED on that bottom line Friday, meaning we had lower readings with the HIGHER close than the previous day, IE divergences.
But I really want to mention the little green circle in the second box, the 7 for the 4% DOWN on the day, number one that is an EXTREMELY low number of stocks that were down 4% on the day, that's out of 2844 stocks, so number two the contrarian in me says this is STUPID and just a Christmas gift from Da Street, and it SHOULD be exhaustive, BUTT, if you go all the way up to the top chart that little green circle on the far left  in July is where we had a reading of SIX stocks, and we obviously went higher from there, sooooooooo .............
Stay safe, use your own judgement, maintain your risk control, and I hope every one has a John Carter year ................

As a further disclaimer I do NOT have a position or trade in the SPY or ANY major indexes, I do just individual stocks or sector ETF's, and after writing this I'm glad I DON'T do them ...................


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