Saturday, December 31, 2016

MONTHLY AND WEEKLY UPDATE FOR 12/30/2016


The $NYAD's finished the year, month and week on a buy signal, and they have a good configuration as we have a positive divergence with the $NYA, so that means the NYAD's are leading us higher, which is what you want to see. Of course it wouldn't take much to roll this over into a sell, but the Bot's that rule the markets these days would probably just consider that the buying opportunity of a life time, although I have no idea of the life expectancy of Bots.


Of 12 major markets nine ended the year on buy signals, 20 sma above 50 sma, with only three still on sell, the sells are GLD, VWO, and TLT. Nothing is ever going to stop these markets but it is notable that the $COMPQ, SPY, IWM, $TRAN and $NYA have all broken below their 20 sma's.


Only ONE of the important Bullish Percent indexes are on a sell signal, that's $BPGDM, the gold miners, which is the bunch I spend almost all my time fooling around with. Price has shot higher through the 20 and 50 ma's so it's just a matter of time before it goes on a buy signal. All four of the major indexes have gone dead flat for the last three weeks of the year, and I feel a BIG MOVE coming, but I'm finding it hard to believe that move is going to be a new leg blasting to the upside, but nothing would surprise me. Price on $BPDISC is heading the wrong way, breaking below both the 20 and 50 ma's. 


XLP joined the buy party this week, as I guess the dollar is NOT going to hurt earnings, and XLV is only 8 cents away from doing the same and making the sectors all one big happy family of bulls. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that XLB, XLE, XLI, XLY, XLF, XME, and XHB have all broken below their 20 ma's, and the XRT has broken below both the 20 AND 50 ma's, as big box retailers did not fare to well over the holidays.


And the big winner in my 80 markets this month waasssss   ....................... EWI, as has been the case all year of where government officials warn of dire consequences if you nasty voters vote against them only to see the index go higher. Obama's best friend was in third, RSX up 9.98% for the month and 3.13% this week. Our best sectors are on this page with XLU up 4.90% as they some how defy all known historical tendencies and decide they actually LOVE higher interest rates hurting them, and XLF up 3.76% as they actually do LOVE higher interest rates, both of them were down on the week.
Most of the winners were foreign but way down at the bottom of the page was our best major index for the month, DIA up 3.51%, also down for the week, IWM was next up 2.88% on the month, then the SPY up 2.03%, also down on the week, then the hated NasDOGS bringing up the rear for the month, QQQ only up 1.13% way back in 41st place. 


China did not do well this past month with FXI and EWH down over 7%, SLV was in fourth down 3.51% as our paper money is better, right?? XME was actually down for the month which sucked 2% off their yearly win percentage, and all of that 2% was lost this past week. GLD was in 10th at -1.91%, which I only mention because once again we have a weird situation in which both SLV and GLD were LOWER on the month but the GDX went HIGHER, up .72%, and which speaking of GDX:


They were the huge winners the last week of the year, up 9.70%, even after a fall of 3.82% on Friday, as I guess we are pricing in Armageddon to start the year, hahahahahaha .......... or maybe we were UN-pricing it the last day of the year, geeze, talk about a fickle bunch ......
It is a little ominous that all our markets were lower on the week as it appears we were rotating out of them and into foreign indexes, as they are quite a bit cheaper on a metric basis , as shown below the USA is the only RED valuation of the bunch:


Our markets start showing up on the loser's side of the last week of the year with the QQQ, XLF, IYT, XHB, XLI, XLB, SMH, OIH SPY, DIA, RSP, with the big winner of the year, XME, being the big loser of the last week. 
With our markets making up all but three of the 20 worst performers of the last week of the year it makes me wonder, it does, are we just working off some of the excess of the dumb ass Trump run up, or is this the start of a much larger rotation or even correction?
The good part is that we can tune in next week to find out.


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this month, the WORST performer down at the bottom was MTB at a paltry 8.68%, the big winner for the year in the SP, NVDA, helped themselves a lot the last month with a 15.77% gain. Ya know, based on that highly "scientific" study I did in the yearly post below I highly doubt that NVDA will be showing up on the top 20 winners list at the end of 2017, but, of course, I'm not betting against it.


Here's the winners for the last week of the year in the SP, there "might" be a little rotation going on as some pretty big losers in the YTD column showed up as big gainers, like AGN, CF, ENDP, VRTX, and MYL. NEM makes up over 10% of the weighting of GDX so that MIGHT be a little contribution to GDX's performance last week, ABX makes up the top weighting and was 13.17% higher on the week. 


Hmmmmm, I can buy any thing online from AMZN for LESS than I pay at the big box retailers AND have it delivered to my door step for FREE, so why in the hell would I buy one of the things??? And the "market" agrees with me, as six of the worst 20 SP stocks last month were just that, with seven more thrown in for good measure. My FCX shows up in the seven spot, and I would appreciate it if I didn't come again on that roll. I get the impression the market now thinks maybe China is NOT going to be building more ghost cities, although personally, I LOVE'EM!!


Here's the last week of the year losers, a LOT of them rank pretty high in that YTD column, so this is just probably profit taking, right? RIGHT??? On the flip side I would say that MNK and TGNA, which I have no idea what either one of them are, are possibly the victims of tax selling, and I might include DO on the list, and at least I know exactly what that one is ......

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