Wednesday, November 30, 2016

MONTHLY WRAP UP FOR 11/30/2016


The $NYAD's finished October on a sell signal, and in November they finished, aaaaaahhhhhh, wellllll, right ON the sell signal. We did advance on the A/D's in November, but of concern is we didn't make new highs with the markets, and we have a little divergence working as the $NYA has advanceed the last three days while the NYAD's are heading lower, that's not a good configuration at all.


Of 12 major markets seven are on buy signals, 20 sma above 50 sma, with five on sell, the sells are $CRB, GLD, VWO, TLT and IYR. Six of the last seven days the $CRB has been above the 50 sma, but it has not been able to get the 20 bending higher.

Only four of the important Bullish Percent indexes are on buy signals, $BPDISC, $BPINDY, $BPENER, and $BPMATE. With none of the major indexes in the buy column it reflects the idea that fewer stocks are doing all the lifting.


Eight of the 12 sectors are on buy, the four on sell are XLU, XLV, XLK and XLP. 

And the big winner in my 80 markets this month waasssss   ....................... XME, of 31 stocks in the index only four were lower, CDE, MUX, NEM and CLD, AKS, X and CLF were in 2-4 with FCX in 7th, and a coal stock, with WLB the leader, up 95% for the month.
OIH, XLE and USO are on the first page only because the crooked slim bag MF'ers in the middle east decided to cut production in order to raise prices and send the world into a depression, taking them down with it! Wad ever, they are only the second worst manipulators in the World, exceeded only by the Federal Reserve. If oil goes up I don't imagine IYT will be in 5th spot next month.
IWM was our best major, up 11.06% on the month, then the big dogs, DIA up 5.94%, then SPY at 3.68%, with the NasDOGS actually being DOGS for the month, QQQ only up .44%. 


I'm actually a little surprised we had loser's this month, but I'll be damned if we didn't have MORE loser's than winners, 46 out of the 80 markets to be exact, but to be fair 3 of those are inverse funds. Is Egypt having another Arab Spring?? It was even worse than the VXX, which I consider next to impossible. GDX was in third, down 15.05%, which explains to me my ever increasing interest in it. TLT and XLU are the only US type of markets on the worst page, for reasons we all know, that being interest rates and the dollar being higher, plus with Trump having all that Bankruptcy experience I would demand like 50% in TLT, and hope and pray the US can hang on two years so you get your money back. 


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this month, it surprises me to see HAR in first, I may take a look and find out what they do one of these days. I had the 3rd place winner, FCX, and I had the 6th place, RIG, but I coughed it up WAY to early, hahahahahaha, what a chicken shit ................... I still have BAC, but it's just in a stock replacement thing.


Here's the loser's in the SP for the month, TRIP got tripped up when it's batteries went down on the way to the grocery store, and that's my explanation of the worst three stocks and I'm sticking to it .............. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I LOVE NEM ........... about another 50% lower!

Friday, November 25, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 11/25/2016

Deere soars after big FQ4 beat

  • Net income of $285.3M, or $0.90 per share vs. $351.2M, or $1.08 per share in the comparable quarter of 2015.
  • Worldwide net sales decreased 3% Y/Y to $6.52B from the same quarter a year ago. Segment Sales: Agriculture & Turf. -5%; Construction & Forestry -5%.
  • "The company in 2016 had one of its ten-best years in both sales and earnings, a noteworthy achievement in light of the difficult business climate," CEO Samuel Allen declared. "We are driving further efficiency gains and have confidence we can deliver structural cost reductions of at least $500M by the end of 2018."
  • Outlook for fiscal 2017: Equipment sales are projected to decrease about 1%. Net sales are also expected to decrease about 1%, while net income is anticipated to be about $1.4B.
  • DE +9.7% premarket.


I wasn't going to post this but I was so stoked out about it I had already had it on the post the day that Deere reported. Now, they talk about the HUGE beat for the quarter, but the stupid ass ANAL-yst had put a completely asinine low ball estimate of 40 fricking cents, so the, "BEAT", looks awesome, but in that most inconvenient of things called "TRUTH", they were 42% LOWER than last quarter and 17% LOWER than the same quarter last year, which, Ya Know, wouldn't be so bad if the stock wasn't trading at all stinking time highs!!!!!!!!
Ya Know, I, LOVE, Deere, it's a great company and all that, but those last two charts are just ridiculous, a great idiot on Bubblevision once said, every two minutes about, that "EARNINGS ARE THE MOTHER'S MILK OF STOCK PRICES", and, well, YOU CAN KISS MY EVER LOVING FRICKING ASSSSSSSSSS! Those two red arrows are the same time period and show how earnings peaked in 2013 and have gone down ever since into the great "BEAT" this quarter. 
This is just a rant of course, and means absolutely ZERO, the stupid thing will probably do a Buzz Lightyear, as in INFINITY AND BEYOOOOOOND!


On a more serious note the $NYAD's are on a slight buy signal but are still NOT leading the markets higher, they are still below the September highs, but, so is the $NYA, just ever so much, so when the $NYA makes new highs it sure would be nice if the NYAD's did as well.



The $NYMO and $NYSI are, GENERALLY, very similar in "nature", so it bears watching when the two are diverging, as the MO is on buy while the SI is NOT.


The $COMPQ stands out like a sore thumb as they are still NOT on a buy signal, 20 sma above 50, the QQQ are actually a little WORSE looking, the $NYA is also NOT on a buy, ALTHOUGH, it's only by 2.19 points, which is even less than a gnat's ass. $CRB, TLT, VWO, GLD and IYR are also on SELL signals, which, if you are keeping track, means seven of 12 markets are on SELL SIGNALS, pretty strange stuff,it is ...........


Despite the weakness in those main markets above, the Bullish Percent indexes still managed to be even WORSE, AGAIN, ALTHOUGH, they improved from ZERO on buy last week to a whopping TWO on buy this week, $BPENER and $BPINDY. I still consider POSITIVE BP reading to be VERY important. 


XLY and XRT joined XLB,XLI, XLE, XLF and XME  in the sector bull party this week, so the individual sectors are doing better than either of the above sections. 


So, here's the winner's in my 80 markets this week, we moved up to 53 markets higher this week, still a lot less than the 62 five weeks ago . UNG led the charge, AGAIN, in anticipation of all the Nat Gas Trump will need to burn all that asphalt ....... XME was in second as they need all that steel for the new asphalt equipment they will be buying, DBC was up as they need WAY more gas for ALL those trucks and tractors, EWA was in sixth because by the time X, NUE and AKS get done raising steel prices like mad it will be cheaper to haul it in from the Aussies, same thought process with IYT, XLB and XLE.
IWM was our best major market, AGAIN, up 2.88% on the week, DIA was in the two spot way down in 34th position, up 1.32%, the SPY up 1.16%, with the NasDOGS being the real Dogs this week, QQQ only up .88%, hardly worth mentioning when you have a lousy 45% yearly gains.


Here's the winner's of the loser's for the week, the dollar was up a whopping .26% on the week which completely explains the drop in GLD and SLV, hell, even GDX fell 3.19% this week after being higher last week into a HIGHER dollar, so it's back in line, a lot of foreign stuff on there as the higher dollar actually does hurt them, really surprising to see Germany on the worst page list, usually the SPY and EWG track pretty well, but, in this day and age it Que Sera Sera ...........


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this week,  I cannot believe I actually had the biggest winner in the SP 500 this week, wooo hooo, for the second week in a row yet, I've had it a while as most of you know, I did sell the stock and move into a stock replacement strategy, buying Jan 17' calls and doing a spread. See above for DE, WYNN is higher as Trump is bringing out the gambler in every one, no financials on the first page this week, what's Sa matter guys!!!


Geeze, what, people are not buying cloths???

Friday, November 18, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 11/18/2016


The IWM closed at all time highs this week. Some think it's because all those small cap energy stocks are going to make tons of money, even though USO is 12.2% lower than it's October highs. Well, ok, maybe it's because it's closed outside it's upper bollinger for seven days in a row ............. or maybe all the small caps are going to get Trump's trillions of dollars of infastructure money rather than the SP 500 big guys .........
Ok, here's the REAL reason they are at ATH's:


People are looking at the IWM P/E and last year at this time it was an astronomical 142, and now it's like, MMAAAAANNNN ............ NIL!! I mean, like, they are making ssooooooooo much money their P/E is, like, so SMALL, it's like, NIL .....................


On a more serious note the $NYAD's are on a slight buy signal but are still NOT leading the markets higher, they are still below the October lows.


The Q's look even worse ..... Ter, they made their All Time closing highs in the red circle on the top chart and made a MUCH lower high on the bottom A/D chart. In days of Yore this type of divergence led to HUGE market losses, but, of course, with the FED's massive manipulation these days it probably don't mean diddly squat. 


It's not just the big dog Q's that have that formation, the main NasDOG index has the same look to it, with the $COMPQ making ATH's with a MUCH lower A/D line ...............


I was going to say the SPY joined the DIA, $TRAN and $USD on buy signals this week, 20 SMA above 50 SMA, but according to StockCharts.com the 20 SMA is 10, TEN STINKING CENTS, from crossing the 50 SMA, so, NO, it is NOT on a buy. But come Monday I will take a wild ass guess and say if we are higher it gets a buy signal. The $CRB dropped off the buy team, and the IWM has still not joined the Bull's, it's a WHOPPING 23 cents away from doing it ................


Going along with those weak A/D reading their are still ZERO Bullish percent indexes on buy signals this week.


XLB and XLI joined the sector bull party this week with XLE, XLF and XME. Of course, I don't just blindly buy some thing just because it triggers, I wait for the first pull back, but of course YOU can do what you WANT! I'd hate to think that side ways action we got this week IS the pull back, sigh ........


So, here's the winner's in my 80 markets this week, we moved up to 42 markets higher this week, still a lot less than the 62 four weeks ago . UNG led the charge in anticipation of all the Nat Gas Trump will need to burn all that asphalt ....... that kind of fits with USO as well. EGPT was in fourth spot because of all the sand Trump will need to mix with the asphalt????? IYT was in seventh spot because we need all that stuff hauled all over the Country from where he mixes it up in the back yard of the White House .....
IWM is right there in 9th, up 2.85%, which seems surprisingly less than I thought it would be, Trump's new best friend is there in 15th spot, Putin up 2.34%, our next best major was the NasDOGS, QQQ up 1.31%, then SPY at .96%, then the big dogs dropped all the way to last this week, FinVIZ says the DIA was DOWN 84 cents on the week but StockCharts say they were UP 52 cents, sigh, my NINJA Trader says they closed DOWN ONE CENT on the week, so I'll go with that ...........


Here's the winner's of the loser's for the week, mostly all foreign stuff, in fact every thing accept for the VXX, QID, SLV and GLD. GDX was actually UP on the week, .62%, sigh, it pisses me off when it does that, I mean if it won't go down with the PM's then when will it???


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this week,  ............. and that's all I have to say .......


Last week Trump banned FOOD and TRAVEL, this week it's clothing, jewelry, internet security, even a material stock that the ANAL-lst say you HAVE to buy for the Trump road building, VMC, and it only makes sense that since you can't buy clothes you won't need belts to hold your pants up, RIGHT?? Not very ILMN ...... minating ...

Saturday, November 12, 2016

EXTENSION TARGETS FOR DIA, SPY, IWM AND QQQ

Following are, POSSIBLE, extension targets for the four majors, I'm only doing this because it, APPEARS, we may be about to be in a, SITUATION!!

The magneta lines are the February to July period and the blue lines are the July to the current period. The red boxes are "AREAS" of "POSSIBLE" confluence between the two periods.

I guarantee .................. NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



The DIA has a 100% confluence at $196-197, and a 76.4% confluence at $190-191.


The IWM has a 100% confluence at $132-133 and a 76.4% confluence at $127-128.


The QQQ has NO confluences, OTHER than the 100% magneta and the blue HIGH in October, which is around the $119 "AREA". The projected targets of the current rally are 100% at $131.18 and the 76.40% target at $127.


The SPY has a 100% confluence at $230, a 76.40% confluence at $223-225, and a 61.8% extension of the magneta period that lines up with the August and blue period high around $219.50. 

Friday, November 11, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 11/11/2016


The $NYAD's moved into a slight buy signal but are NOT leading the markets higher, the $NYSE broke above the October lows while the NYAD's flattened out and stayed below those lows, you always want to see the NAD's lead. One possible good thing is that the NYAD's rose today even though the $NYSE fell. 


I just HAVE to mention this, with the SPY being up 3.77% on the week some one will have to explain to me how, in the last five days, the stocks that were HIGHER in the S and P 500 started at 487, then went 338, 328, 302 and then closed at 255 with the SPY finally giving it up Friday, LOWER every stinking day and yet the SPY went UP   ............. I'd call that a significant divergence ...............


The DIA, with their huge up week, joined the $TRAN, $CRB and $USD on buy signals, 20 SMA above 50 SMA, while the VWO dropped from the buy list.


There are now ZERO Bullish percent indexes on buy signals this week with both the $BPINFO and $BPENER dropping to sell signals. That means that not every one was enjoying huge advances this week. 


XME joined XLE and XLF on buy signals this week, XLI is just the tiniest gnats ass away from a new buy signal, although I would not chase the humongous week it had, and unbelievably XLK actually dropped to a SELL, surprised me. 


So, here's the winner's in my 80 markets this week,we went from 62 three weeks ago to 23 two week ago to 14 last week, and this week we moved up to only 36 of the 80 markets higher, hhhhhmmm, another little surprise there. XLF led the charge, up 11.19%, as consumers, companies and government employees all LOVE higher interest rates. I guess the theory is is that they will borrow MORE money the HIGHER the rates go ........?? It "used" to be that small caps HATED higher rates, but the "this time is different" crowd decided that they will LOVE higher rates, IWM leading our majors with 10.04% for the week, there's another of those "used to be" things in the 9th spot, XHB up 5.51%, as I guess real estate LOVES higher rates as well .............
DIA was the seond best major of the week, DIA up 5.46%, then SPY at 3.77%, and you had to go to the second page for the NasDOGS, QQQ "only" up 1.89% for the week. I see Trump's new best friend is on that first page, Putin in 18th spot up 3.44%.
It's strange but EWA gapped way up on Monday, I guess on hopes of a Clinton win, and then STAYED there after Trump won, hhhhmmmm .......


Here's the winner's of the more abundant loser's for the week, at least some things still make sense as I KNOW PM's, bonds, utilities and consumer staples HATE a higher dollar and interest rates, the 10 year yield went up 18.31% this week and the dollar 2.02%. We know Trump plans to build a wall around Mexico, EWW down 12.18%, but hows he going to do that around Malaysia?? Or Indonesia and Brazil?? Or the whole of South America for that matter, with ILF down 7.64%. That may not be the biggest weekly pecentage drop for TLT in History, but it's easily the biggest weekly red bar in the last five years, down 7.36%. USO was down 2.10% and staples, XLP, down 2.07%, EEM and VWO got wack a moled, down 3.84 and 3.58%.
I understand all that stuff, it makes perfect sense to me, I just don't understand much of that stuff in the prior list. If I can get GDX back down to $13 I'll PROBABLY be a big buyer.


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this week, FCX showed up on the list because China is going to be using millions of tons more of copper because Trump was elected .............


What, is Trump going to ban FOOD and TRAVEL?? I LOVE NEM, but not here, $27.50 is prior resistance which makes it support, but, to be honest, I'll buy GDX way before NEM.  

Monday, November 07, 2016

"POSSIBLE" TRADE "IDEAS" FOR WEEK OF 11/7/2016 FROM IVICA

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RULE NUMBER ONE: ONCE INITIAL "RISK" IS REACHED, STOP SHOULD "ALWAYS" BE MOVED TO BREAK EVEN!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG IDEAS

EME- LONG IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: over $60.85
stop price:  under $60.27 depending on your risk profile
target: 1/2 at $62 then open
Type: day - swing trade

CELG- LONG IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: over $104.35
stop price:  under $103 depending on your risk profile
target: 1/2 at $106 then open
Type: day - swing trade

XME- LONG IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: over $26.23
stop price:  under $25.50 depending on your risk profile
target: 1/2 at $27 then open 
Type: day - swing trade

NUE- LONG IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: over $49.99
stop price:  under $48.82 depending on your risk profile
target: 1/2 at $52 then open 
Type: day - swing trade

SHORT IDEAS

VAR- SHORT IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: under $88.95
stop price: over $90
target: 1/2 at $86 then open
Type: day - swing trade


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