Friday, October 14, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 10/14/2016

So, the "big banks" drove the markets higher at the open this morning on their, "BEATS", hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.............. yeeeaaaaaaa, rrriiiiiiiight, let's see those, "BEATS":



(double click for larger image (I hope))

So, JPM's earnings were 6% lower than last year and C was 9% lower, THAT WAS SOME BEAT!!!!!!!!! WFC actually did beat, by 2 cents, but they have problems, as we all know. Over the last year on a total basis JPM earned $5.86 vs $5.81 in 2015, their stock is up 13% YOY vs a .004% increase in earnings, C stock is actually down 2% to go with their 14% YOY DROP in earnings, wooo hooo, much better, and WFC is down YOY because of other things than their 2.7% drop in earnings.
Their stocks all opened much higher this morning because what they do is lean out the windows and yell at each other across the street a few weeks before earnings come out and agree to LOWER the forecast for each other, they then "BEAT" the greatly LOWERED forecasts, the stock pops and they sell the shit out of it and hand it off to the dumb shit retails, I mean, IS THIS A GREAT BUSINESS OR WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don't get me wrong, I would NEVER try and discourage any one from "investing" in them, there's much more to their valuations than just the EPS, consult your various investment advisers for more information. I own BAC call spreads to limit my down side, and, as such, my upside as well.

This higher stock prices with lower earnings for the last year and a half is the grand scheme of the Central Bank bastards around the world, as they do their best to try and convince the retails that this time truly is different, that as earnings go DOWN you should BUY BUY BUY, WOOOOOO HOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

Soooooo, I wrote the above this morning after the earnings reports, lets see how all those "BEATS" did:




JPM, at the top, actually finished DOWN on the day. So, with the three of them supplying 99% of "BUBBLEVISION's" revenues for the year, Bubble Vision does what it is told, and the banks told them to only yell and scream about the "BEATS", as in Arby's "MEATS", and NOT to mention ANY THING about earnings actually being DOWN YOY, hahahahahahahahahahahaha ........
God, it just don't get any more classic than this, get'em to gap them all higher, and then the bank's trader's themselves just sell the holy shit out of them and punish as many retails as possible. 
Thanks WALLLLLL STREET!

Ok, on to the weekly stuff, I've had enough  fun to last me a while:


Here's a daily of the SPY going back to the start of the year, we broke out of the triangle to the down side and broke the trend line going back to February. 


Here's a blow up of the triangle, you can see the gap down on Thursday rallied almost EXACTLY back up to the under side of the triangle, and then the gap up today, that was sold, dropped to just under that lower line. The Monday candle in the red circle was NOT a good start to the week, as we rallied over the upper trend line, suck'em in, closed flat and then sucked the big one on Tuesday.
The red circle around the MA's is Dave Landry's "BOW TIE" that he loves so much, the Bow Tie is ESPECIALLY important when coming off of ATH's like we are right now. ALSO, notice the MA's tried to rally up and get a positive cross on Monday but FAILED, so we are still in a SELL situation.
This is the worst possible technical set up I've seen in my ENTIRE LIFE, and the markets will probably lose 90% ......... NEXT WEEK!!!!
But of course, what is REALLY going to happen, is the **** hole Chairman of the Federal Reserve will pump in a few billion to those **** hole banks up above with instructions to gap us UP two or three hundred points on the futures Sunday nigh, probably up above that upper trend line .......... sigh, wad ever, that's why I don't short any more. Good luck to you.

Just FYI, I don't personally hate Grandma, I just hate the policies of the FED that are forcing investors to pay the MAX to buy into the markets, when after the earnings recession we have had the last year plus we should be able to be picking up fantastic bargains!



The $NYAD's and $NYMO are on sell signals, the $NYSI and $NYHL remain on buy on the "cumulative" charts. The $NYAD's are actually leading the indexes lower, which can't be good, and speaking of can't be good, the $NYMO looks awful, so bad it's probably got to bounce. 


The $COMPQ, IWM, $TRAN, VWO, $CRB and $USD remain on buy signals, , which,as I've mentioned before, is the STUPIDEST thing I've seen in some time, as it USED to be that the dollar and commodities moved in OPPOSITE directions, but Central Banks have decreed that shall not be allowed to happen any more, as they have abandoned all their mandates and are now crying out for higher inflation.


Only TWO of the important Bullish Percent indexes remain on buy this week, $BPCOMPQ and the financials, $BPFINA, but both are in down trends and not looking good.  On the positive side $BPINFO and $BPENER are a gnats ass away from new buys, if Grandma Yellin gets her wish Sunday night they should trigger on Monday. 


Only ONE of the sectors is on buy, the most hated sector of last year, that being XLE. 


So, here's the winner's in my 78 markets this week, there's only 17 of them, I honestly can't remember the last time VXX was the big winner, but I really don't care that much and I'm not going to look back. GCC is in the number two spot because the dollar, UUP, is in the number 7 spot ................... that's called a pregnant pause as I let that sink in, and, oh, look, speaking of the dollar being up oil was up as well, USO in 12th at .97%, grains were up, DBA .65%, it surprised the hell out of me that GOLD wasn't up, why not make it unanimous .........................


Our majors start showing up on this side of the ledger, the LOSER's side, being US centric didn't help the small caps, IWM down 1.95% on the week, then TLT at -1.74% on the week, meaning interest rates went higher despite the FED insisting they can't do that, QQQ -1.12%, SPY -.89%, with our big "winners" being the big guys, DIA only down .51% for the week. 


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this week, I imagine ULTA salons are big winners as women trader's hair probably looks like the Bride of Frankenstein watching this market the last year and a half. All these winner's are probably earnings related and as dictated by the FED they would be the WORST earnings reports. 

Here's the loser's in the SP this week, AA certainly didn't help things with the way they started earnings season off. I don't see any thing I'm interested in, I AM interested in AA but, NOT, until after the split. I want to see where the dust settles on the aluminum side of the business. 


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