Monday, October 31, 2016

MONTHLY WRAP UP FOR 10/31/2016


The $NYAD's finish October on a sell signal, just slightly breaking below the lows of October, while the  $NYA index finished the day slightly higher, just holding above those same lows.


And the big winner in my 80 markets this month waasssss   ....................... EWZ, Brazil, up 11.95%, a major factor in making the South American ETF second best, ILF up 10.81%, also help was Chile and Mexico, ECH up 8.35% and EWW up 4.85%. Sneaky little guys as I don't remember mentioning them in any of the weekly updates, accept for EWZ. Even MORE surprising that they did that well is that the dollar was up 3% for the month in 6th spot. With QID in the number 7 spot I highly doubt the NasDOGS will be on the first page, hahahaha! The grains were in the 8th spot, DBA up 2.70%. Our best sector was XLF, up 2.28%, then XLU at .90%. 


And in the biggest surprise of the month, THAT WAS IT!! That first page above was the only winners, and in the next biggest surprise, to me at least, GDX was the WORST performer of the month, GDX went up the last two days and I guess I equated that with the whole month, LOL ...... sigh. Real estate obviously doesn't like higher rates and the IYR was our worst sector, down 5.04%. The little guys don't like higher rates either, IWM our worst major down 4.60%, just ahead of TLT, down 4.38%. USO was down 3.66% for the month, UNG 3.35%, the SPY was the next worst major, down 1.76%, then the NasDOGS, QQQ down 1.46%, with the big dogs being the, well, big dogs for the month, DIA only down .78% on the month.  


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this month, it seems ages since NFLX beat the year ago earnings by 5 cents and sent it's 312.5 P/E up to 337.48, it did beat subscriber growth forecasts but then turned around and said subscriber growth would fall in the fourth quarter, wad ever, it was good for a 26.71% for the month, WOOOOO HOOOOOO for holders of the stock. Wow, GS is in the 12 spot, I'm impressed, they helped the XLF be the best sector of the month,


Here's the loser's in the SP for the month, energy is well appointed with SWN, MCK, COG, MRO, MUR, DVN, etc etc, nothing on either of the list that I'm very excited about, especially with the current market action. 

Friday, October 28, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 10/28/2016



The $NYAD's are on sell signal but are neither leading nor lagging the $NYA index, they are both sitting right on the lows of the last two months awaiting resolution. 


In contrast the NasDOGS look horrible, the $COMPQ is actually in better shape than the $NYA as it's still above the lows of the last two months, but the $NAAD's have completely broken down, very similar looking to what happened in June-July of 2015 before we had a correction. We don't actually have the divergence we had between price and the NAAD's, but we do have a much lower high than we had then, in the lower chart. This happens of course because some of the big caps are doing the heavy lifting while the majority of stocks in the index are going lower. Not a good situation at all.


In years past, my younger and bolder days, I would have been all over a BEARISH ENGULFING bar on the weekly SPY chart, but until Congress kills the FED, or at least gets them out of the market, I may never trade the SPY again. I have more than enough I can do in other areas the FED considers beneath them. 

I drew support lines on the 20/50 charts this week to show the divergences, the $COMPQ is easily the best of the bunch, not having broken the October low and far above the September low. The DIA and SPY are similar, sitting in a range and trying to hold above the October low, the $NYA is the opposite of the $COMPQ, breaking the Sept. low but holding the October low, which also is the dreaded lower high and lower low. The little guys are really bad, breaking both two month lows and having a definite lower low and highs.
The $COMPQ, $TRAN, VWO, $CRB and $USD all remain on buy signals, 20 SMA above 50 SMA.
Things might have been a little different if the FBI had not decided to come clean on a Friday and decide what we already know, that HRC is a criminal. I'm sure that over the weekend the forces of evil will be out in force convincing every one she had, and did not KNOW, about any of it.


Only two of the all important Bullish Percent indexes remain on buy signals this week, $BPFINA, $BPINFO and $BPENER.


We moved to three sectors on buy signals this week, XLE, XLK and XLF. Despite the indexes being lower seven of the 12 sectors were higher on Friday, XLB, XLI, XLU, XME, XHB, XLP and XRT.


So, here's the winner's in my 80 markets this week,we went from 62 last week to 23 higher this week, quite a turn around. None of our majors showed up on the first page again this week, despite rising interest rates XLU and XLP were our best sectors, up .96% and .84%. XLF was on this page as the financials do like higher rates. Commodities got a little lift as the dollar was .36% lower on the week, that European bank ETF I added showed up in sixth spot, EUFN up 1.54% on the week.


The weaker dollar didn't help Nat gas or oil though, UNG down 7.12% and USO 4.09%, strange stuff. More strange stuff, SLV and GLD were both on the winners list above and yet GDX was down 3.29% on the week, hhhmmmm, I no likey when it does that. Our MAJOR loser is on the first page, IWM down 2.51%, TLT 2.15% as the OBVIOUSLY don't like higher rates, QQQ down .89%, SPY down .67%, with the Big Dogs doing some thing they haven't done in a while, winning for the week, UP a MASSIVE .08%, which is 14 cents, or slightly less than the spread a lot of times. 


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this week, all are probably earnings related so I won't bother going through them.


Here's the loser's in the SP this week, UA may be Under Armour but it's not stock armour, GT is a bad one, they beat the lowered earnings but missed huge on revenue and WARNED about the full year because of weak truck production, hhhhhhmmmmmm, same thing with WHR, very bad FORWARD guidance, so the consumer is not buying trucks or refrigerators, hhhhhmmmmmmmm .......

Monday, October 24, 2016

"POSSIBLE" TRADE "IDEAS" FOR WEEK OF 10/24/2016 FROM IVICA

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

RULE NUMBER ONE: ONCE INITIAL "RISK" IS REACHED, STOP SHOULD "ALWAYS" BE MOVED TO BREAK EVEN!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG IDEAS

RIG- LONG IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: over $10.50
stop price:  under $10 depending on your risk profile
target: 1/2 at $12.50 then open
Type: day - swing trade

ESV- LONG IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: over $9
stop price:  under $8.50 depending on your risk profile
target: 1/2 at $11 then open
Type: day - swing trade

PWR- LONG IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: over $28.40
stop price:  under $27.50 depending on your risk profile
target: 1/2 at $30 then open 
Type: day - swing trade

SHORT IDEAS

COTY- SHORT IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: under $22.80
stop price: over $23.50
target: 1/2 at $21.50 then open
Type: day - swing trade


SIGN UP FOR IVICA'S SERVICE IN THE BOX IN THE SIDE BAR ON THE UPPER RIGHT SIDE AND GET 15 DAYS FREE AND NEW 50 CENT A DAY PLAN!

WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP, DANGER, DANGER, POSSIBLE MARKET VOLATILITY AHEAD,  ETC ETC, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!!!!

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH YOUR OWN TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRA-DAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. We are NOT Investment Advisers, so please consult your own investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!

RULE NUMBER ONE: ONCE INITIAL "RISK" IS REACHED, STOP SHOULD "ALWAYS" BE MOVED TO BREAK EVEN!!!!!!!!!!!!


Friday, October 21, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 10/21/2016


The SP 500 remains on a Dave Landry "Bow Tie" sell signal, in the red circle, especially coming off of all time highs. I will not buy this until we get back over the highs, or some other weird situation happens, I, CERTAINLY, am not buying it because of the election.


We had a huge divergence on Friday, I mean besides the INDU and SP 500 being down while the NasDOGS were higher, the $NAAD's were negative, very unusal stuff, most of the up in the NasDOGS is because of MSFT being up 5%, although it's surprising that it wasn't enough to get the INDU positive, as 20 stocks, or 2/3 of the index, was in the red Friday. 
When this situation has happened in the past the NasDOGS have lost about 90% over the next 90 days, but since "THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT", because of the "CBB's", Central Bank Bastards, they will probably be UP 90% over the next 90 days. 

The $NYAD's bounced back to buy this week while the  $NYMO is on sell signals, the $NYSI and $NYHL remain on buy on the "cumulative" charts. The $NYAD's bounced early but dropped the last two days, a lower day on Monday would bring up the possibility of a LOWER high. The stocks above their 50 DMA in the SP 500 and $NYA are punk, 34.6% in the SPX and 39.53% in the $NYA. It wouldn't exactly be a super strong signal for the indexes to climb back to the new ATH's and less than 50% of their component stocks are above their 50 DMA's. 


We lost one this week, the IWM dropped to sell, which leaves the $COMPQ, $TRAN, VWO, $CRB and $USD on buy signals. I was going to rant again about the dollar and the CRB going higher together, but it's kind of not true. The dollar went higher from July of 14' into March of 15' while the CRB dropped, the CRB continued to drop into 2016 while the dollar went side ways. The CRB then rallied out of February with the stock markets while the USD dropped. We had a whip saw in July but since August both have gone higher, so some body is going to cave in sooner or later.




 The all important Bullish Percent indexes moved around this week, the ones that have been positive, $BPCOMPQ and the financials, $BPFINA,went into sell signals this week, unbelievable as it may seem. I say that only because every one in the MSM can't seem to sing the praise of the banks enough.   On the positive side, as mentioned last week, $BPINFO and $BPENER moved into buy signals.
It's so funny to look at the $BP charts up there of the $BPCOMPX and $BPSPX and then look at the index charts, hahahahahahaha, wow, what a difference, there's a lot of weakness under the surface here. I mean, like I've said before, if it wasn't for the CBB's .........................................


AS I SAID LAST WEEK: "Only ONE of the sectors is on buy, the most hated sector of last year, that being XLE". 


So, here's the winner's in my 78 markets this week,we went from 17 last week to 62 this week, quite a turn around. I had a position in GDX from the last month, but the options were to far OTM to do me any good and they expired this week, so I wasn't watching it, I, MAY, start a new position, MAYBE. I didn't lose much, if any, as I do all vertical speads, like Al Davis said, go vertical baby, go vertical!
None of our majors showed up on the first page, it was all most all foreign stuff. I wasn't listening to the MSM so I don't know if they were yelling and screaming or not, I, DID, however, hear Bloomberg say it was the best week for the SPY in a month, HOWEVER, what they DIDN'T say was the TLT beat the shit out of them, up 1.31% to the SPY's FAAAANNNNNNNNN ........... tastic, .40%, hahahahahahaha, the MSM is as biased in stock reporting as they are in the election. The NasDOGS were the winner's, up .86%, ALL of it due to Mikey, then IWM .53%, SPY and then the wiener dogs for the week, DIA DOWN .04%, even with MIKEY!


VXX didn't bask in it's glory very long, going from first to worst in one week. I heard Bloomberg say UNG was down because of possible warm weather, that's funny because I heard them say last summer that it was UP, BECAUSE, of warm weather. Housing did lousy again, XHB, XLI, XLP and IYT were other sectors that were lower on the week.
I'm adding EUFN to my market list, that a European bank ETF, a buy on Bloomberg said it was going to go up 50% over the next year, yep, that's what he said, it's got a head start as it was up 3.42% this week. Be careful, it's a little loooowwwwww volume thingey. 


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this week, I have only one comment, CF went up EVERY day, because S and P came out on Monday and down graded it to JUNK status ............... I kid you NOT! RIG was another monthly option spread thiney I had that came up short, sigh, I hate monthly expiration's, at times ..................... HOG was higher because it's earnings were 60% lower than last quarter and 5 cents lower than the year ago quarter, but at least they MET the damn estimates, yes they did by god by god .........
MCD beat the heck out of earnings, yes indeedy .............


Here's the loser's in the SP this week, I'm surprised at EBAY, TRV, MCO, KSU, T and INTC, shame on them ...............

Sunday, October 16, 2016

"POSSIBLE" TRADE "IDEAS" FOR WEEK OF 10/17/2016 FROM IVICA

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

RULE NUMBER ONE: ONCE INITIAL "RISK" IS REACHED, STOP SHOULD "ALWAYS" BE MOVED TO BREAK EVEN!!!!!!!!!!!!

LONG IDEAS

KEYS- LONG IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: over $31.72
stop price:  under $31.30 ir $31 depending on your risk profile
target: 1/2 at $34 then open
Type: day - swing trade

SHORT IDEAS

TAHO- SHORT IDEA
Trading plan: 
entry price: under $11
stop price: over $11.50
target: 1/2 at $10 then open
Type: day - swing trade

DHR- SHORT IDEA
Trading plan:
entry price: under $75.90
stop price: over $76.80
target: 1/2 at $74.50 then open

Type: day - swing trade


SIGN UP FOR IVICA'S SERVICE IN THE BOX IN THE SIDE BAR ON THE UPPER RIGHT SIDE AND GET 15 DAYS FREE AND NEW 50 CENT A DAY PLAN!

WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP, DANGER, DANGER, POSSIBLE MARKET VOLATILITY AHEAD,  ETC ETC, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!!!!

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH YOUR OWN TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRA-DAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. We are NOT Investment Advisers, so please consult your own investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!

RULE NUMBER ONE: ONCE INITIAL "RISK" IS REACHED, STOP SHOULD "ALWAYS" BE MOVED TO BREAK EVEN!!!!!!!!!!!!


Friday, October 14, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 10/14/2016

So, the "big banks" drove the markets higher at the open this morning on their, "BEATS", hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.............. yeeeaaaaaaa, rrriiiiiiiight, let's see those, "BEATS":



(double click for larger image (I hope))

So, JPM's earnings were 6% lower than last year and C was 9% lower, THAT WAS SOME BEAT!!!!!!!!! WFC actually did beat, by 2 cents, but they have problems, as we all know. Over the last year on a total basis JPM earned $5.86 vs $5.81 in 2015, their stock is up 13% YOY vs a .004% increase in earnings, C stock is actually down 2% to go with their 14% YOY DROP in earnings, wooo hooo, much better, and WFC is down YOY because of other things than their 2.7% drop in earnings.
Their stocks all opened much higher this morning because what they do is lean out the windows and yell at each other across the street a few weeks before earnings come out and agree to LOWER the forecast for each other, they then "BEAT" the greatly LOWERED forecasts, the stock pops and they sell the shit out of it and hand it off to the dumb shit retails, I mean, IS THIS A GREAT BUSINESS OR WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don't get me wrong, I would NEVER try and discourage any one from "investing" in them, there's much more to their valuations than just the EPS, consult your various investment advisers for more information. I own BAC call spreads to limit my down side, and, as such, my upside as well.

This higher stock prices with lower earnings for the last year and a half is the grand scheme of the Central Bank bastards around the world, as they do their best to try and convince the retails that this time truly is different, that as earnings go DOWN you should BUY BUY BUY, WOOOOOO HOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

Soooooo, I wrote the above this morning after the earnings reports, lets see how all those "BEATS" did:




JPM, at the top, actually finished DOWN on the day. So, with the three of them supplying 99% of "BUBBLEVISION's" revenues for the year, Bubble Vision does what it is told, and the banks told them to only yell and scream about the "BEATS", as in Arby's "MEATS", and NOT to mention ANY THING about earnings actually being DOWN YOY, hahahahahahahahahahahaha ........
God, it just don't get any more classic than this, get'em to gap them all higher, and then the bank's trader's themselves just sell the holy shit out of them and punish as many retails as possible. 
Thanks WALLLLLL STREET!

Ok, on to the weekly stuff, I've had enough  fun to last me a while:


Here's a daily of the SPY going back to the start of the year, we broke out of the triangle to the down side and broke the trend line going back to February. 


Here's a blow up of the triangle, you can see the gap down on Thursday rallied almost EXACTLY back up to the under side of the triangle, and then the gap up today, that was sold, dropped to just under that lower line. The Monday candle in the red circle was NOT a good start to the week, as we rallied over the upper trend line, suck'em in, closed flat and then sucked the big one on Tuesday.
The red circle around the MA's is Dave Landry's "BOW TIE" that he loves so much, the Bow Tie is ESPECIALLY important when coming off of ATH's like we are right now. ALSO, notice the MA's tried to rally up and get a positive cross on Monday but FAILED, so we are still in a SELL situation.
This is the worst possible technical set up I've seen in my ENTIRE LIFE, and the markets will probably lose 90% ......... NEXT WEEK!!!!
But of course, what is REALLY going to happen, is the **** hole Chairman of the Federal Reserve will pump in a few billion to those **** hole banks up above with instructions to gap us UP two or three hundred points on the futures Sunday nigh, probably up above that upper trend line .......... sigh, wad ever, that's why I don't short any more. Good luck to you.

Just FYI, I don't personally hate Grandma, I just hate the policies of the FED that are forcing investors to pay the MAX to buy into the markets, when after the earnings recession we have had the last year plus we should be able to be picking up fantastic bargains!



The $NYAD's and $NYMO are on sell signals, the $NYSI and $NYHL remain on buy on the "cumulative" charts. The $NYAD's are actually leading the indexes lower, which can't be good, and speaking of can't be good, the $NYMO looks awful, so bad it's probably got to bounce. 


The $COMPQ, IWM, $TRAN, VWO, $CRB and $USD remain on buy signals, , which,as I've mentioned before, is the STUPIDEST thing I've seen in some time, as it USED to be that the dollar and commodities moved in OPPOSITE directions, but Central Banks have decreed that shall not be allowed to happen any more, as they have abandoned all their mandates and are now crying out for higher inflation.


Only TWO of the important Bullish Percent indexes remain on buy this week, $BPCOMPQ and the financials, $BPFINA, but both are in down trends and not looking good.  On the positive side $BPINFO and $BPENER are a gnats ass away from new buys, if Grandma Yellin gets her wish Sunday night they should trigger on Monday. 


Only ONE of the sectors is on buy, the most hated sector of last year, that being XLE. 


So, here's the winner's in my 78 markets this week, there's only 17 of them, I honestly can't remember the last time VXX was the big winner, but I really don't care that much and I'm not going to look back. GCC is in the number two spot because the dollar, UUP, is in the number 7 spot ................... that's called a pregnant pause as I let that sink in, and, oh, look, speaking of the dollar being up oil was up as well, USO in 12th at .97%, grains were up, DBA .65%, it surprised the hell out of me that GOLD wasn't up, why not make it unanimous .........................


Our majors start showing up on this side of the ledger, the LOSER's side, being US centric didn't help the small caps, IWM down 1.95% on the week, then TLT at -1.74% on the week, meaning interest rates went higher despite the FED insisting they can't do that, QQQ -1.12%, SPY -.89%, with our big "winners" being the big guys, DIA only down .51% for the week. 


Here's the big winners in the SP 500 this week, I imagine ULTA salons are big winners as women trader's hair probably looks like the Bride of Frankenstein watching this market the last year and a half. All these winner's are probably earnings related and as dictated by the FED they would be the WORST earnings reports. 

Here's the loser's in the SP this week, AA certainly didn't help things with the way they started earnings season off. I don't see any thing I'm interested in, I AM interested in AA but, NOT, until after the split. I want to see where the dust settles on the aluminum side of the business. 


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