Friday, April 08, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 4/8/2016


Here's a chart of the $NYA from 3/18/2016 ...........


(double click for larger view)

Here's the chart I posted last week ...........


And here's the $NYA chart from Friday ........ hahahahahahaha, geeze, some thing's gotta be moving but it sure as hell ain't this thing!!!


The SPY is two red dots into a BBSqueeze, it doesn't give a direction, it just means a big move is coming, the Woodies CCI under that is saying it will be down. 


The SPY weekly chart is hitting major resistance from the down trend line that goes back to July, and you have to wonder if the big red inside bar this week is, "THE END"??! The good part, though, is it's formed a very clear BIG "W", just like it did with the daily BIG "W" from the August to October lows. The strategy says you take these things when they break over the middle high of the "W", which in this case is also the down trend line, and the target would be an equal move from the bottom of the "W", or $28, which gives a target "area" of $236.


A huge drop in the $SKEW Friday, as you can see a move above about 135 is "usually" good for the bears and a drop below about 118 is "usually" good for the bulls, but what gets me is as you can see on the SPY the last two times we hit this area on the $SKEW in February and  October the SPY had FALLEN to it's lows of the  period, in this case the SPY has hardly moved off of it's highs.............
I have no idea what this means, it's probably just another case of how the fricking FED has totally screwed things up in the markets.


Both the $NYAD and $NYMO, in some what of a surprise, went on sell signals this week, but both the $NYSI and $NYHL remain on solid buys, so I'm kind of ignoring this split, but, Ya Know, all changes start with a signal, and, well, we have a signal..............

On the NYSE we rebounded with 97 stocks making new 52 wk highs vs 228 last week, much weaker and inline with that "signal" above, 10 stocks made new lows vs 20 last week, so weaker was better,  176 stocks were on PSAR buy signals vs 59 last week, only 42  were on a PSAR sell signal vs 135 last week, a much stronger close to the week.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks only 337 stocks were 4% HIGHER for the week vs 923 last week, and 584 were 4% lower vs 106, so amuch worse close than last week.


The "Carlucci Indicator" officially went on a buy signal as it finally reached the 65% threshold this week.


 The only markets NOT on a buy signal, 20 SMA above the 50 SMA, is the dollar, TLT rebounded this week as people fled into the safety of treasuries while driving the markets higher. $TNX looks bad but has not had the negative cross, the top three charts, DIA, $COMPQ and SPY all look fine, good in fact, the IWM looks the same, but the rest of them are shaky looking, to say the least.


There are no Bullish Percent indexes NOT on buy.


There are also no sectors NOT on a buy, again, several sectors are on a nice "Power" trend higher in the green boxes, XLK, XLP and XHB, the rest look a little shaky, like XLB in the upper left corner, not a big deal, just that price has moved under the 20 SMA and needs to reclaim that level, the XLF and XRT in the red box don't look good at all.


I am just shocked that VXX was the leader in my 77 markets this week, which tells me I need to get out more often and see what's really happening, same with USO being up 7.50%, I imagine the media was talking about that being "GOOD", hahahaha, yea, wad ever, I twitted about a GDX trade one of those days, I forget which day, it was just a miracle that it actually worked, I'm just as stoked about EWJ being higher as the higher Yen is supposed to be killing Nippon stocks.
Our best major market was on that first page, TLT up 1.02%, all the rest were on the loser's side, DIA was the leader at MINUS 1.16%, the SPY was one tick lower at -1.17%, then the NasDOGS popped up, QQQ down 1.23% for the week, with the little guys the big wieners for the week, IWM down 1.81%.


The loser's outpaced the winner's this week 54 to 20,  Mexico was the surprise winner of the worst country award this week, EWW down 4.58%, a surprise as USO was the leader on the upside,  same with the Aussies being on this list with EWA down 3.13% and the PM's being some of the leaders, banks were our worst sector with XLF down 2.86%, they start reporting next week and it don't look good..............


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, all those energy stocks that were the big loser's last week were the darlings of this week, such is the fickle nature of "inwestors" ......................

18 S and P stocks closed the week at 52 wk highs vs 73 last week, we had two new lows vs ONE last week, that was the same one, HRB, with UA joining them, but UA looks like a split, there was 57 at 20 day highs vs 152 and 35 at lows vs 23 last week, 3 stocsk had an RSI 14 above 80, CPGX, SRCL and ADT,  and 2 stocks showed up under 20, those same two as above, which is the first time we've had any under a 20 RSI since March 7. Only 132 stocks were higher on the week, so we really were much weaker than what the numbers above say.


For the first time in a few weeks the loser's list was, NOT, "rigged", hahahahaha, as RIG did not show up on the first page, instead it appears a lot of people lost their "shirts", as PVH was the "winner", down 6.38%, I was surprised with FCX down 5.66% but I guess I'm relating to Friday as it was up almost 10% at one point......



(Interview) Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets
See a fresh example in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index

By Elliott Wave International

Mark Galasiewski, the editor of our monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, explains how using the news to predict the markets is "meaningless."

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