Saturday, April 02, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 4/1/2016



(double click for larger view)

The $NYAD went higher this week, negating the possible sell set up from last week, and are sitting at levels last seen a year ago just before the collapse into October, the big difference is we are seeing no divergences like we saw last April and May, when we saw a lower high against the all time highs in the $NYA in May.  The $NYHL, $NYSI and $NYMO all remain on strong buy signals.
The $NYA has reached the target for the "Big W" off of the January and February double bottom lows, we have moved sideways for three weeks and, "COULD", be setting up for an "EQUAL MOVE" back up to test those all time highs.

On the NYSE we rebounded with 228 stocks making new 52 wk highs vs 67 last week, 20 stocks made new lows vs 16 last week, so there was not a big move in weaker stocks,  135 stocks flashed a PSAR sell signal vs 609 last week, a much stronger close to the week.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks 923 stocks were 4% HIGHER for the week vs 226 last week, 106 were 4% lower vs 473, so again a much better performance.


The "Carlucci Indicator" came within 2 stocks of the 65% above their 200 SMA needed for a new buy signal, close enough for horse shoes I guess. It does concern me though that we've blasted higher for seven weeks and we can only get 62 of the 100 biggest and best companies in the world to get back above their 200 SMA, some how that doesn't seem right to me.


Earnings for the first quarter start a week from Monday with AA reporting, and "Factset" is saying that earnings are going to decline 8.5%,  .
That chart is from the article and shows how the SP 500 has shot higher while earnings estimates have shot lower, I have only one thing to say about that.......
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA............HAH!!
What a fricking crock of shit, sigh, never in my life time did I ever think that a thing like a non elective body like that f##king ahole Federal Reserve could completely turn the single most important item needed for stock performance in the past, EARNINGS, completely on its head and render them completely meaningless, sigh, wad ever......................... evidence of this abortion can be found with Standard and Poors saying one year ago that the SP 500 was going to earn $137 for the year, and it ended up earning about $100, so the "FORWARD LOOKING" stock market said "IT MEANS NOTHING TO ME" and just wandered on it's jolly little way.


 The only markets NOT on a buy signal, 20 SMA above the 50 SMA, is the dollar, although the TLT is right on the verge of a negative cross, which can't be of course as that would defy what that stinking FED is saying. Why doesn't the FED just print enough money to give every one in the Country a million dollars, that would do a lot more for the economy than letting those Wall Street firms borrow at zero percent and buy their own shares back.


There are no Bullish Percent indexes NOT on buy.


There are also no sectors NOT on a buy, again, but I'm not going to play Ray Stevens this week.


Brazil, South Africa and Malaysia were the leading countries in my 77 markets this week as they were all in turmoil, so I guess that's the key to better stock prices, just have a more corrupt Government, woooo hooooo! XHB was up 4% this week as the average new home price hit a new all time high vs the average wage in the country, and, again, wooooo hooooo, and, shades of 2008 all over again! Of course, I've heard we need to worry about the Sub prime auto market more than housing, as it appears the "average" Joe might not be able to afford that "cheap" Tesla at $36,000, and it's massive 215 mile range. How long does it take to charge those things up?? It's 185 miles from my house to Ely, with nothing in between, so I'm wondering how long I can play black jack there waiting for the charge.
Our best major market was on that first page, IWM up 3.66%, then the NasDOGS popped up, QQQ up 2.89% for the week, the SPY was next at 1.87%, and last weeks winner was this weeks loser, DIA "only" up 1.59%, as the risk off assets were not in vogue this week. Hell, thanks to the FED people probably don't want the DIA as they are making to much money, they want the IWM and it's "used" to be 180 P/E, I say "used" to be because the WSJ has no P/E on it's web site as I guess they are into NEGATIVE earnings................


The loser's dropped to only 18 this week, and it surprised me to see oil as the big winner, USO down 7.26%, hhhhmmmmmm, EWJ was only down 1.94% after being down 5% on Friday after it was revealed that Central Bank interventions DON'T do diddly fricking squat for the "real" economy, surprise surprise....... it's REALLY surprising to see the dollar on the list, UUP down 1.60%, and that's what I mean about oil, I woulda thunk it would have been higher, another one making a lot of sense is SLV down .62%, as GDX was on the first page of the winners list at 3.39%, but never under estimate the power of the aholes at the blah blah blah to screw every one they can.................


Here's the big winners for the quarter, GDX and XME were two of the worst performers going into the quarter, so, it makes perfect sense of course......


Here's the loser's for the quarter, our worst major is on the list, and despite all the yelling and screaming from Bubble vision AND them being the most pumped this week for the end of quarter window dressing the NasDOGS, QQQ, were DOWN 4.18% for the quarter, so, yes Virginia, there is some justice in the world.


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, POM was bought out, RCL was then the "real" leader, up 9.95% as people are trying to get out of this Country, and are wanting to take a "TRIP", up 8.03%, as they try and "HOG" the seats on the ship, up 7.94%, and I could probably could keep going on and on but I'm tired of my own bull shit...........

73 S and P stocks closed the week at 52 wk highs vs 11 last week, we had ONE new low vs ONE last week, that was the same one, HRB, there was 152 at 20 day highs vs 23 and 23 at lows vs 12 last week, 5 stocsk had an RSI 14 above 80, GIS, WHR, AON, AMC and MMC,  and ZERO were under 20, AGAIN, as no stocks have been over sold for like over a month and a half, just a bottom fisher's delight, right?


The loser's list was "rigged", again, this week, but at least RIG dropped down to the fourth worst stock, 11 stocks on that list are energy related, I'm really surprised to see TSO and VLO on the list as I sure as hell haven't seen it at the gas pump............... it's also surprising to see WFM on the list as I imagine the younger brother of the two bald dudes on Fast Money is still trying to claim the average American is more than willing to pay out the ass for their veggies......... I don't get Bubblevision any more so I can't say if he still says that or not........


Here's the big winner's in the quarter for the S and P 500, you might recognize the top name as it led another list the last quarter, like the LOSER'S, FCX has really done good though as it's stock price ALMOST got above the amount they LOST in earnings last year, ($11.20), as they seem to be the poster child for the FED's lousy policies that keep the zombies at the head of the list. Actually, it's going higher as it appears China is going to be building more ghost cities, woooo hoooooo!!!! They need lots of copper for those circuits that won't have any electricity flowing through them.............


And here's the loser's for the quarter, I'd say some thing but the FED won't allow any comments about loser's, ESPECIALLY since two of their welfare cases are on the list, BAC and C down there in 18th and 20th, like I said I'd say some thing but I can't.........................

(Interview) Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets
See a fresh example in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index

By Elliott Wave International

Mark Galasiewski, the editor of our monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, explains how using the news to predict the markets is "meaningless."

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