Saturday, March 19, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 3/18/2016


(double click for larger view)

The $NYAD remains in great shape along with the other breath indicators, nothing to look at there, just keep on trucking. On the NYSE 222 stocks made new 52 wk highs vs 144 last week and 20 new lows vs 9.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks 662 stocks were 4% HIGHER for the week vs 462 last week, so, by that measure a much better performance than last week, although 1081 were higher on the Thursday close so quite a drop on the Friday rally.
I have the $NYA chart up there as that is about the neatest chart I've seen in quite some time, it closed Friday with an NR7 Doji, which also poked it's head over the 200 SMA and failed to hold the break out, setting up the best R/R short trade in some time as you would OBVIOUSLY not want to stay short above that 200, which the pajama trader's will probably take out in Sunday nights futures trading.
 It's times like this I wish I had not sworn off shorting back in 2008 when that cock sucking FED would come in five minutes before the market open and lower interest rates and take away my tens of thousands in put profits and turn them into losses. Wad ever, that's ancient history, I've forgotten all about it, really, honest, I have...............
Since I'm on the stinking fricking ahole FED I was going to go into this huge rant about the rally the last three days that is based solely on the FED saying that things are so horrible that they are going to risk completely losing all credibility by reversing their December statement of raising rates four times this year and saying they "might" raise twice, hahahahahahahahahaha, but I decided not to do it, the rant that is, sigh, and the media wonders why this is the most hated rally in history........

Speaking of earnings (I was, wasn't I???):


That sheet comes directly from the source, Standard and Poors, and despite what the media claims we are NOT in an earnings "recession", the red box shows that earnings went UP three quarters in a row through the 9/30/2015 quarter, and with only five companies left to report the fourth quarter 15' will be the first lower earnings results, and they are projecting HIGHER earnings for the first quarter of 2016 so there's no two quarters of drops in a row that would define a "recession".
Speaking of that, recession that is, I will repeat, AGAIN, that since Teddy Roosevelt no multi term President has never NOT left his successor with a recession, so good luck to who ever wins this fall.
On a side note, speaking of "FALL",  and Standard and Poors, and that red box on the earnings table, they have never explained how in the world they were projecting earnings of $137 for 2015 when the S and P was trading at 2058, and earnings are now coming in at $100, which is 27% LOWER than what was "built in" at 2058, and the S and P was trading at 2043 on 12/31/2015 rather than being 27% lower in line with the earnings, or trading at 1503.................... wad ever .......


The "Carlucci Indicator" needs four metrics to give a new buy signal after a major market decline, we have three, the weekly STOCH black line is above the red line, the weekly RSI is above 50, the weekly MACD black line is above the red line, the main thing missing is the percentage of stocks above the 200 MA in the $OEX, you need 65% for a new buy signal and we only have 57%, which also means that only 3 S and P 100 stocks moved over their 200 SMA this week compared to last week.


One last little chart and timing note, Dave Landry, whom I have followed for like 15 years now, has a pattern he calls a "Bow Tie", which is when the 10, 20 and 30 SMA's and EMA's cross , and he attach's big significance to this cross when it happens on a weekly chart close to major highs and lows, we had the negative cross in that red circle back in August, and because it came off of all time highs made in May, he will not even remotely think about going long the market until we make NEW ALL TIME HIGHS...............
That, of course, is on an "investment" basis, not a trading basis......... every one has their own little ideas about market timing, I only mention it as that is his way of doing things, which works for him.


The only markets NOT on a buy signal, 20 SMA above the 50 SMA, is the same as last week, the dollar and ten year yields.


There are no Bullish Percent indexes NOT on buy, PLUS, there are not even any of them where the 20 SMA has curled lower, meaning, of course, this rally will NEVER stop... right?


The two sectors that were NOT on buy last week, XLF and XLV, joined the party this week.
Ya Know, if the damn FED would just come out and say things were horrible, like every day, the INDU would be at 30,000  in no time at all, woooo hooooo ......


The REALLY big surprise in my 77 markets this week is that EWZ is not on the first page, up a lousy little 2.45% at number 21, EPU moved into the top country spot at 4.94% as copper makes up a big chunk of their GDP, which goes with the number two sector, XME, being up 7.12%, as metals and commodities went higher as the dollar got crushed because the FED did NOT lower rates, while the ECB and Japan DID lower rates, you got that .......... the FED is going to raise rates twice this year so now the dollar goes DOWN when they RAISE rates, yes sir, that's how it works ........
Our best major market did not show up on the first page, you had to go to the 31th spot which was DIA, 2.01%, then IWM, up 1.30%, then QQQ at .83%, with the SPY in last place, up .80%. I actually thought we did much better than those numbers.


Here's the loser's, the same number as last week, eleven in total, XLV had a horrible week but actually managed a new buy signal on the sector chart above, strange things happen all the time in the "markets".


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, we had one really HOT stock leading the charge, FDX had a pretty good earnings report, and the big news on FCX is that the stock price, $10.76, was almost....... ALMOST...... higher than their losses for the year, ($11.20) a share, oh well, maybe next week.

57 S and P stocks closed the week at 52 wk highs vs 39 last week, ZERO at lows vs ZERO last week, 279 at 20 day highs vs 208 and two at lows vs ZERO last week, ABC and CMG, 7 stocks had an RSI above 80, ZERO were under 20.


And yes Virginia, there were loser's this week, 118 to be exact, I see no particular sector so I guess it's mostly earnings related.


I have 117 ETF's in a screen in Ninja Trader for "BOLLINGER SQUEEZE", and only two showed up, IBB and BIB, both the same ETF basically, and as always a squeeze simply means a BIG MOVE is coming, it doesn't say in WHAT direction. The chart of IBB shows the signal in the red box, you can see the move it made off the signal in December. I don't "DO" biotech, but I must say that looks a little double bottomish, but the recent VRX action is not encouraging me to break my no biotech rule.
Of the 38 stocks with a squeeze in the S and P 500 last week 16 triggered lower and the rest higher, 3 were down more than 5%, ALXN, NVLS and MYL, 6 were more than 5% higher, MJN, OI, ODP, MTW, EQT and SLM, here are the 31 stocks that show squeeze's this week:

ABBV, AIG, AMGN, CELG,CVC, GAS, GCI, GILD, HRL, HSY, JNJ, KMB, LB, LLL, LLY, M, NEM, NVLS,NYT, PFE, PG, RTN, SE, SJM, SLM, STR, THC, UAL, UNP, VRTX, WMT,XLNX,XOM


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