Friday, March 25, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 3/24/2016



(double click for larger view)

The $NYAD has actually pulled back to where it's within one down day of issuing a new sell signal, but there's no divergence, it's still higher than the November highs while the $NYA remains well below those highs, meaning the $NYAD's are still leading us higher, plus the $NYHL, $NYSI and $NYMO all remain on strong buy signals.
One concern is that both of those charts are right on the verge of a MACD cross over sell signal, but once again there's no divergence, like we had at the January-February lower price low where the MACD made a higher low. That Dogi at the 200 SMA I talked about last week worked it's magic as the index went down all four days this week.  Right now you could say we are on minor support, the next big move I will be watching will be if the $NYAD's start to diverge against a rally in the $NYA, where the index makes new highs while the $NYAD's do not.

On the NYSE 67 stocks ended with new 52 wk highs vs 222 last week, a much weaker performance, and 16 stocks made new lows vs 20 last week so there was not a big move in weaker stocks, we did however get a big move in the PSAR on Friday, as 609 stocks flashed a PSAR sell signal vs only 55 last week.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks 226 stocks were 4% HIGHER for the week vs 1081 last week, 473 were 4% lower vs 199, so a much weaker performance.


The "Carlucci Indicator" needs four metrics to give a new buy signal after a major market decline, we have three, the weekly STOCH black line is above the red line, the weekly RSI is above 50, the weekly MACD black line is above the red line, the main thing missing is the percentage of stocks above the 200 MA in the $OEX, you need 65% for a new buy signal and we still only have 57%, the $OEX is being very stubborn about giving up those eight stocks that need to move above their 200 SMA for a new buy signal.


The CBOE $SKEW index had a huge fall Friday, which is actually kind of skewing the Bears. This index issues caution warnings for bulls when it gets over about 135 as we are getting a little frothy, while under about 118 is GOOD news for the bulls, as it was back in late September early October and again at the double bottom in mid February. I'm really surprised at that big dump though as it's usually associated with a big drop in the markets, which we haven't gotten. Maybe it's warning about some thing???


And then there was one, as the only markets NOT on a buy signal, 20 SMA above the 50 SMA, is the dollar.


There are no Bullish Percent indexes NOT on buy.


There are also no sectors NOT on a buy, so, it seems it's time for Ray Stevens:


Wow, the REALLY big surprise in my 77 markets this week is that we completely reversed the last few weeks and rather than only 11 or so markets that were DOWN this week we only had 11 that were HIGHER, PLUS, some of our major markets showed up on the first page as the best performers, our best major market was again the DIA, up a massive .21%, then QQQ at .05%, the SPY was DOWN .23%, and the little guys were last, IWM at minus 1.32%. I actually thought we did much better than those numbers, especially with the best sector, XLV at 2.01%, was the only one besides the dollar that was up more than 1 percent.


The loser's were Legion, with any thing commodity related showing the most weakness, like PM's, UNG and oil, which dragged down countries like EIDO, EWC and EWA. The dollar move back up was a result of the oil cartel losing it's edge that they had managed to get on the FOMC announcement when they managed to panic dollar bulls for awhile, until people realized that they had NOT lowered rates, and had only lied about four rate hikes and would only raise twice.


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, it looks like Pom Pom's, mink coats and roofer's were all HOT, with Zit's showing up, which, believe it or not, zit popping is a hot item on YouTube. I just love it when some one like TSO shows up on the list, there's no better summer indicator than gas going higher.

Only 11 S and P stocks closed the week at 52 wk highs vs 57 last week, with a huge jump in the new lows as we had ONE vs ZERO last week, that was HRB, there was only 23 at 20 day highs vs 279 and 12 at lows vs 2 last week, 1 stock had an RSI 14 above 80, CPGX, and ZERO were under 20, AGAIN, as no stocks have been over sold for like a month and a half, just a bottom fisher's delight, right?


The loser's list was "rigged" this week........... ok, sigh, I'm sorry about that, it's just that I remember I couldn't wait to get into RIG in 2003 under $20, and made some decent bucks on it, and now I won't touch it at $9, at least I'm not in it from $155...........
13 stocks on that list are energy related, boy, just a dinky pull back in oil and "inwestor's" can't wait to dump the bunch, there are a couple of names I'm watching, that would of course be FCX and NEM, if they dump about 80% more that is.


Actually, NEM is kind of interesting, it had a big down day on Thursday, it's been on a "squeeze" for like three weeks, in the green box, but the indicator is still on a buy signal, it has not triggered short, yet. At this point I would be a LOT more interested if it pulled back to the top of that prior consolidation and 200 SMA around $20.

(Interview) Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets
See a fresh example in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index

By Elliott Wave International

Mark Galasiewski, the editor of our monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, explains how using the news to predict the markets is "meaningless."

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