Saturday, March 26, 2016

"POSSIBLE" TRADE "IDEAS" FOR 3/28/2016 FROM IVICA

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

AAP- LONG IDEA

 ENTRY OVER HOD AND STOP UNDER LOD, ACCEPT SHORTS OF COURSE. 


AET- SHORT IDEA

CCC- SHORT IDEA

ABC- SHORT IDEA


WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP, DANGER, DANGER, POSSIBLE MARKET VOLATILITY AHEAD,  ETC ETC, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!!!!

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. We are NOT Investment Advisors, so please consult your own investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!


(Interview) Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets
See a fresh example in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index

By Elliott Wave International

Mark Galasiewski, the editor of our monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, explains how using the news to predict the markets is "meaningless."

Friday, March 25, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 3/24/2016



(double click for larger view)

The $NYAD has actually pulled back to where it's within one down day of issuing a new sell signal, but there's no divergence, it's still higher than the November highs while the $NYA remains well below those highs, meaning the $NYAD's are still leading us higher, plus the $NYHL, $NYSI and $NYMO all remain on strong buy signals.
One concern is that both of those charts are right on the verge of a MACD cross over sell signal, but once again there's no divergence, like we had at the January-February lower price low where the MACD made a higher low. That Dogi at the 200 SMA I talked about last week worked it's magic as the index went down all four days this week.  Right now you could say we are on minor support, the next big move I will be watching will be if the $NYAD's start to diverge against a rally in the $NYA, where the index makes new highs while the $NYAD's do not.

On the NYSE 67 stocks ended with new 52 wk highs vs 222 last week, a much weaker performance, and 16 stocks made new lows vs 20 last week so there was not a big move in weaker stocks, we did however get a big move in the PSAR on Friday, as 609 stocks flashed a PSAR sell signal vs only 55 last week.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks 226 stocks were 4% HIGHER for the week vs 1081 last week, 473 were 4% lower vs 199, so a much weaker performance.


The "Carlucci Indicator" needs four metrics to give a new buy signal after a major market decline, we have three, the weekly STOCH black line is above the red line, the weekly RSI is above 50, the weekly MACD black line is above the red line, the main thing missing is the percentage of stocks above the 200 MA in the $OEX, you need 65% for a new buy signal and we still only have 57%, the $OEX is being very stubborn about giving up those eight stocks that need to move above their 200 SMA for a new buy signal.


The CBOE $SKEW index had a huge fall Friday, which is actually kind of skewing the Bears. This index issues caution warnings for bulls when it gets over about 135 as we are getting a little frothy, while under about 118 is GOOD news for the bulls, as it was back in late September early October and again at the double bottom in mid February. I'm really surprised at that big dump though as it's usually associated with a big drop in the markets, which we haven't gotten. Maybe it's warning about some thing???


And then there was one, as the only markets NOT on a buy signal, 20 SMA above the 50 SMA, is the dollar.


There are no Bullish Percent indexes NOT on buy.


There are also no sectors NOT on a buy, so, it seems it's time for Ray Stevens:


Wow, the REALLY big surprise in my 77 markets this week is that we completely reversed the last few weeks and rather than only 11 or so markets that were DOWN this week we only had 11 that were HIGHER, PLUS, some of our major markets showed up on the first page as the best performers, our best major market was again the DIA, up a massive .21%, then QQQ at .05%, the SPY was DOWN .23%, and the little guys were last, IWM at minus 1.32%. I actually thought we did much better than those numbers, especially with the best sector, XLV at 2.01%, was the only one besides the dollar that was up more than 1 percent.


The loser's were Legion, with any thing commodity related showing the most weakness, like PM's, UNG and oil, which dragged down countries like EIDO, EWC and EWA. The dollar move back up was a result of the oil cartel losing it's edge that they had managed to get on the FOMC announcement when they managed to panic dollar bulls for awhile, until people realized that they had NOT lowered rates, and had only lied about four rate hikes and would only raise twice.


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, it looks like Pom Pom's, mink coats and roofer's were all HOT, with Zit's showing up, which, believe it or not, zit popping is a hot item on YouTube. I just love it when some one like TSO shows up on the list, there's no better summer indicator than gas going higher.

Only 11 S and P stocks closed the week at 52 wk highs vs 57 last week, with a huge jump in the new lows as we had ONE vs ZERO last week, that was HRB, there was only 23 at 20 day highs vs 279 and 12 at lows vs 2 last week, 1 stock had an RSI 14 above 80, CPGX, and ZERO were under 20, AGAIN, as no stocks have been over sold for like a month and a half, just a bottom fisher's delight, right?


The loser's list was "rigged" this week........... ok, sigh, I'm sorry about that, it's just that I remember I couldn't wait to get into RIG in 2003 under $20, and made some decent bucks on it, and now I won't touch it at $9, at least I'm not in it from $155...........
13 stocks on that list are energy related, boy, just a dinky pull back in oil and "inwestor's" can't wait to dump the bunch, there are a couple of names I'm watching, that would of course be FCX and NEM, if they dump about 80% more that is.


Actually, NEM is kind of interesting, it had a big down day on Thursday, it's been on a "squeeze" for like three weeks, in the green box, but the indicator is still on a buy signal, it has not triggered short, yet. At this point I would be a LOT more interested if it pulled back to the top of that prior consolidation and 200 SMA around $20.

(Interview) Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets
See a fresh example in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index

By Elliott Wave International

Mark Galasiewski, the editor of our monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, explains how using the news to predict the markets is "meaningless."

Monday, March 21, 2016

"POSSIBLE" TRADE "IDEAS" FOR 3/21/2016 FROM IVICA

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

HMSY- LONG IDEA

 ENTRY OVER HOD AND STOP UNDER LOD, ACCEPT SHORTS OF COURSE. 


CSRA- SHORT IDEA

JACK- SHORT IDEA


WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP, DANGER, DANGER, POSSIBLE MARKET VOLATILITY AHEAD,  ETC ETC, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!!!!

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. We are NOT Investment Advisors, so please consult your own investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!


Be prepared for the rest of 2016: State of the Global Markets Report -- 2016 Edition. Get your copy now! 

This 50-page, chart-filled report may be the most valuable publication you read this year. This report will help you avoid the dangerous pitfalls and spot the biggest opportunities in the year ahead. It is one of the most anticipated annual reports for investors and technical analysts and for a limited time, it's available 100% free of charge. After that, it goes to $99 per download, where it will stay for the rest of the year. 

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Saturday, March 19, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 3/18/2016


(double click for larger view)

The $NYAD remains in great shape along with the other breath indicators, nothing to look at there, just keep on trucking. On the NYSE 222 stocks made new 52 wk highs vs 144 last week and 20 new lows vs 9.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks 662 stocks were 4% HIGHER for the week vs 462 last week, so, by that measure a much better performance than last week, although 1081 were higher on the Thursday close so quite a drop on the Friday rally.
I have the $NYA chart up there as that is about the neatest chart I've seen in quite some time, it closed Friday with an NR7 Doji, which also poked it's head over the 200 SMA and failed to hold the break out, setting up the best R/R short trade in some time as you would OBVIOUSLY not want to stay short above that 200, which the pajama trader's will probably take out in Sunday nights futures trading.
 It's times like this I wish I had not sworn off shorting back in 2008 when that cock sucking FED would come in five minutes before the market open and lower interest rates and take away my tens of thousands in put profits and turn them into losses. Wad ever, that's ancient history, I've forgotten all about it, really, honest, I have...............
Since I'm on the stinking fricking ahole FED I was going to go into this huge rant about the rally the last three days that is based solely on the FED saying that things are so horrible that they are going to risk completely losing all credibility by reversing their December statement of raising rates four times this year and saying they "might" raise twice, hahahahahahahahahaha, but I decided not to do it, the rant that is, sigh, and the media wonders why this is the most hated rally in history........

Speaking of earnings (I was, wasn't I???):


That sheet comes directly from the source, Standard and Poors, and despite what the media claims we are NOT in an earnings "recession", the red box shows that earnings went UP three quarters in a row through the 9/30/2015 quarter, and with only five companies left to report the fourth quarter 15' will be the first lower earnings results, and they are projecting HIGHER earnings for the first quarter of 2016 so there's no two quarters of drops in a row that would define a "recession".
Speaking of that, recession that is, I will repeat, AGAIN, that since Teddy Roosevelt no multi term President has never NOT left his successor with a recession, so good luck to who ever wins this fall.
On a side note, speaking of "FALL",  and Standard and Poors, and that red box on the earnings table, they have never explained how in the world they were projecting earnings of $137 for 2015 when the S and P was trading at 2058, and earnings are now coming in at $100, which is 27% LOWER than what was "built in" at 2058, and the S and P was trading at 2043 on 12/31/2015 rather than being 27% lower in line with the earnings, or trading at 1503.................... wad ever .......


The "Carlucci Indicator" needs four metrics to give a new buy signal after a major market decline, we have three, the weekly STOCH black line is above the red line, the weekly RSI is above 50, the weekly MACD black line is above the red line, the main thing missing is the percentage of stocks above the 200 MA in the $OEX, you need 65% for a new buy signal and we only have 57%, which also means that only 3 S and P 100 stocks moved over their 200 SMA this week compared to last week.


One last little chart and timing note, Dave Landry, whom I have followed for like 15 years now, has a pattern he calls a "Bow Tie", which is when the 10, 20 and 30 SMA's and EMA's cross , and he attach's big significance to this cross when it happens on a weekly chart close to major highs and lows, we had the negative cross in that red circle back in August, and because it came off of all time highs made in May, he will not even remotely think about going long the market until we make NEW ALL TIME HIGHS...............
That, of course, is on an "investment" basis, not a trading basis......... every one has their own little ideas about market timing, I only mention it as that is his way of doing things, which works for him.


The only markets NOT on a buy signal, 20 SMA above the 50 SMA, is the same as last week, the dollar and ten year yields.


There are no Bullish Percent indexes NOT on buy, PLUS, there are not even any of them where the 20 SMA has curled lower, meaning, of course, this rally will NEVER stop... right?


The two sectors that were NOT on buy last week, XLF and XLV, joined the party this week.
Ya Know, if the damn FED would just come out and say things were horrible, like every day, the INDU would be at 30,000  in no time at all, woooo hooooo ......


The REALLY big surprise in my 77 markets this week is that EWZ is not on the first page, up a lousy little 2.45% at number 21, EPU moved into the top country spot at 4.94% as copper makes up a big chunk of their GDP, which goes with the number two sector, XME, being up 7.12%, as metals and commodities went higher as the dollar got crushed because the FED did NOT lower rates, while the ECB and Japan DID lower rates, you got that .......... the FED is going to raise rates twice this year so now the dollar goes DOWN when they RAISE rates, yes sir, that's how it works ........
Our best major market did not show up on the first page, you had to go to the 31th spot which was DIA, 2.01%, then IWM, up 1.30%, then QQQ at .83%, with the SPY in last place, up .80%. I actually thought we did much better than those numbers.


Here's the loser's, the same number as last week, eleven in total, XLV had a horrible week but actually managed a new buy signal on the sector chart above, strange things happen all the time in the "markets".


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, we had one really HOT stock leading the charge, FDX had a pretty good earnings report, and the big news on FCX is that the stock price, $10.76, was almost....... ALMOST...... higher than their losses for the year, ($11.20) a share, oh well, maybe next week.

57 S and P stocks closed the week at 52 wk highs vs 39 last week, ZERO at lows vs ZERO last week, 279 at 20 day highs vs 208 and two at lows vs ZERO last week, ABC and CMG, 7 stocks had an RSI above 80, ZERO were under 20.


And yes Virginia, there were loser's this week, 118 to be exact, I see no particular sector so I guess it's mostly earnings related.


I have 117 ETF's in a screen in Ninja Trader for "BOLLINGER SQUEEZE", and only two showed up, IBB and BIB, both the same ETF basically, and as always a squeeze simply means a BIG MOVE is coming, it doesn't say in WHAT direction. The chart of IBB shows the signal in the red box, you can see the move it made off the signal in December. I don't "DO" biotech, but I must say that looks a little double bottomish, but the recent VRX action is not encouraging me to break my no biotech rule.
Of the 38 stocks with a squeeze in the S and P 500 last week 16 triggered lower and the rest higher, 3 were down more than 5%, ALXN, NVLS and MYL, 6 were more than 5% higher, MJN, OI, ODP, MTW, EQT and SLM, here are the 31 stocks that show squeeze's this week:

ABBV, AIG, AMGN, CELG,CVC, GAS, GCI, GILD, HRL, HSY, JNJ, KMB, LB, LLL, LLY, M, NEM, NVLS,NYT, PFE, PG, RTN, SE, SJM, SLM, STR, THC, UAL, UNP, VRTX, WMT,XLNX,XOM


Saturday, March 12, 2016

"POSSIBLE" TRADE "IDEAS" FOR 3/14/2016 FROM IVICA

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

EL- LONG IDEA

 ENTRY OVER HOD AND STOP UNDER LOD, ACCEPT SHORTS OF COURSE. 


CTB- LONG IDEA

DVA- LONG IDEA


WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP, DANGER, DANGER, POSSIBLE MARKET VOLATILITY AHEAD,  ETC ETC, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!!!!

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. We are NOT Investment Advisors, so please consult your own investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!


(Interview) Learn Why 2015 Was a Key Transition Year for Stocks 
Steve Hochberg explains why he thinks we're in the early stages of a bear market

By Elliott Wave International

Friday, March 11, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 3/11/2016



(double click for larger view)

The $NYAD remains in great shape, breaking over it's December highs well ahead of the market, putting it in a leading position, which is what you want to see. On the NYSE 144 stocks made new 52 wk highs vs 116 last week and 9 new lows vs 11.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks 462 stocks were 4% HIGHER for the week vs 1755 last week, so, by that measure a much weaker performance this week. 


The "Carlucci Indicator" needs four metrics to give a new buy signal after a major market decline, we have three, the weekly STOCH black line is above the red line, the weekly RSI is above 50, the weekly MACD black line is above the red line, the main thing missing is the percentage of stocks above the 200 MA in the $OEX, you need 65% for a new buy signal and we only have 54%.


The only markets NOT on a buy signal, 20 SMA above the 50 SMA, is the dollar and ten year yields. The dollar made a HUGE move down on the Super Mario bull shit, which, of course, is the complete OPPOSITE of what should have happened, but, wad ever.


There are no Bullish Percent indexes NOT on buy.


There are two sectors that are NOT on buy, XLF and XLV, but they are only one more up day away from a new signal. 


EWZ dropped to 7th this week in my 77 markets, up a lousy little 4.68%, EGPT moved into the top country spot at 8.17%, our best major market did not show up on the first page, you had to go to the 40th spot which was DIA, 1.30%, then SPY, up 1.16%, then QQQ at .78%, with the little guys in last place, IWM up .45%. Geeze, I coulda SWORN that with all the yelling and screaming on the Bubblevision channels that our WORST performer had to be like 20+%!!!!!


Here's the loser's, only elven in total but actually four more than last week. I'm actually a little surprised that gold and sliver were down on the week.


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, I URBN is back in with the IN CROWD, I'm so out of "it" that it's pathetic which is why I don't DO clothing stocks. They beat earnings and then the Cramit guy said it's a new era.

There's about as many methods of judging over bought as there are stars in the sky, or of grains of salt, of which you should take this as one, one method I use just hit an all time LOW, that is the number of stocks in the S and P 500 with an RSI 14 of UNDER 50,  it hit 23 on Friday:


You can see on that list that there is nothing remotely close to it, which, of course, I suppose it can go to ZERO.........

39 S and P stocks closed the week at 52 wk highs vs 18 last week, ZERO at lows vs 2, 208 at 20 day highs vs 269 and ZERO at lows vs 3, 3 stocks had an RSI above 80, URBN, PWR and GPS, ZERO were under 20.


And here's the loser's for the week, again I'm surprised to see energy stocks on the list, I see MOS and V on there again, both of which are companies I LOVE, BUTT, I won't touch either one, MOS mainly because of what the Russians did to them last year.


I'm mentioning the stocks that are on a "BOLLINGER SQUEEZE" this week because of the rather large number showing up, 38, and as always a squeeze simply means a BIG MOVE is coming, it doesn't say in WHAT direction. The chart of AMGN shows the signal in the green box, you can see the move it made off the signal in January, it also has a squeeze on the weekly and monthly charts, SO, it could have a biggie coming...........
Here's the 38 stocks:

ALXN, AMGN, ABBV, ADP, BIIB, BLL, CB, CELG, CMCSA, CVX, EQT, ESRX, GAS, INTU, KMB, LLL, LLTC, MDT, MJN, MTB, MTW, MYL, NVLS, NYT, ODP, OI, PEP, PG, SHLD, SJM , SLM, STT, TE, THC, VAR, WEC, WMT, XLNX.

Saturday, March 05, 2016

"POSSIBLE" TRADE "IDEAS" FOR 3/7/2016 FROM IVICA

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

SIX- LONG IDEA

 ENTRY OVER HOD AND STOP UNDER LOD, ACCEPT SHORTS OF COURSE. 


CTB- LONG IDEA

RMD- LONG IDEA


WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP, DANGER, DANGER, POSSIBLE MARKET VOLATILITY AHEAD,  ETC ETC, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!!!!

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. We are NOT Investment Advisors, so please consult your own investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!


(Interview) Learn Why 2015 Was a Key Transition Year for Stocks 
Steve Hochberg explains why he thinks we're in the early stages of a bear market

By Elliott Wave International

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