Saturday, February 20, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 2/19/2016




(double click for larger view)

Last week all the breath indicators were on sell, this week two of them, $NYMO and the main men $NYAD, moved to buy signals, while the $NYSI and $NYHL remain on solid sell signals. Neither the NYSE or the %NYAD's are above their February highs so there is no divergences. Wednesday was a very slight accumulation day while Thursday was a very slight "distribution" day, with basically low volume the entire week. On the NYSE 40 stocks made new 52 wk highs vs 25 last week and 37 new lows vs 96.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks 74 stocks ended the week 4% LOWER, which is the lowest number since December 29, which was a top, and then August 31, which led to that huge gap down in September and an eventual re-test of the August lows. I'm not saying that's going to happen, I'm just spitting out numbers. 


The "Carlucci Indicator" needs four metrics to give a new buy signal after a major market decline, we have ONE, the weekly STOCH black line is above the red line, the weekly RSI is NOT above 50, the weekly MACD black line is NOT above the red line, and only 32% of stocks in the $OEX are above the 200 DMA, you need 65% for a new buy signal.
So with 50% of the breath indicators on buy signals and 25% of the Carlucci indicators on buy I'll leave it up to your discretion. Do wad Ya gotta Do.........



Just like last week there are still only two candle glance charts on buy signals, the 20 SMA above the 50, that's GLD and TLT.


The same two Bullish Percent indexes from last week are on buy, $BPUTIL and $BPENER, BUTT, $BPDISC, $BPMATE, $BPSTAP and $BPHEAL are just a gnat's ass away from their own new buy signals and any up day on Monday will trigger them, so much improvement in the BP's.


The sectors DOUBLED their buy signals this week, woooo hooooo, from one to TWO, with XLP joining XLU, and you could probably get in a fist fight over whether XME triggered or not, it's that close. 


Huge change from last week in my 77 markets where 20 were higher last week, 65 were higher this week, and even more impressive than that was that Mexico knocked Peru out of the leading Country race, EWW up 8.29%, as they found the cure for cancer in gasoline I guess. There's that XME in third place, semi's had a big week, SMH up 7.71%, even China was up over 7%. IWM was our leading major this week, up 5.97%, then QQQ at 5.26%, SPY at 5%, with DIA coming in last with a paltry 4.4% increase this week.
The take away of course is that an earning recession doesn't mean a damn thing in this era of massive market manipulations by Central Banks around the world.
Here's a snap shot of the great economic news that caused the spike this week:


But... but.... but.... but...... I stammer, but they were all doggie crap..... well, yeaaaaa, that's GOOOOOOOOOOOOD, as it keeps the FED on the side lines, wooooo hoooooo, the shittier the economic reports the better, yeaaaaa baby.......


BTWIM, here's the loser's, all 12 of them, it was bonds, bonds and more bonds, and GLD and SLV, and the inverse funds of course.


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, I would "guess" that most of it is earnings related, or CB related....... hahahahahaha
I actually have FCX, I have for awhile and I've been selling call's against it, with my average price about 5.75, and I sold out at the EXACT high of $7.60 this week....................... hahahahahahahahahaha, yyeeeeaaaaaaaa, rrrrriiiiggggghhhhttttt, I did get a bunch of it in the seven's though, I've kept some to see if I can start adding again at lower prices, to see if I can get myselrf in trouble again, he he he..........
 Only 19 stocks were lower this week vs 151 last week, I'm not sure if that 19 is a record or not, once again ZERO stocks closed with an RSI 14 above 80 OR -20 RSI, meaning the horrible environment for option seller's continues.


And here's the loser's, a lot of oil names on there, and again, I was sure that with OPEC saying higher prices would cure all the world's problems I assumed they would all be UP instead.......... kind of funny to see Wally World and Mickey D on the loser's list, the poor old average American can't even afford to buy the low end shit I guess, sigh...................

"How likely is a recession in the U.S.?"
Our friends at Elliott Wave International kindly share with us this report from the February issue ofThe Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, their flagship monthly publication.
It tells you about three factors you should be aware of that make a U.S. recession likely.
As usual, the Elliott wave guys give you an unconventional perspective.

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