Sunday, February 14, 2016


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All the breath indicators are on sell, the $NYMO just joined the party on the big up day Friday, the main men at the top, $NYAD, made a lower low while the NYSE did not, so, IE, a negative divergence, you want to see the $NYAD's leading us higher.
You never know if some thing like Friday is a short covering rally or not for a few weeks, at least until we get a sustained up trend with higher lows and highs, but the "breath" on Friday was not very good, between Thursday and Friday Thursday was a "distribution" day while Friday was NOT an accumulation day, in my "Market Monitor" composed of over 2900 stocks I had 16 make new 52 wk highs and 112 make new lows, 124 made new 20 day highs while 348 made new lows, on the SP 500 5 made new highs while 6 made new lows, notable for the lack of ANY THING going on, 12 made 20 day highs and 81 new lows, and on the NYSE 25 made new 52 wk highs and 96 new lows, pretty much dog crap all the way through.

So, are you in the camp that believes the more times you test support the more likely it is to hold, or the more likely it is to fail? There's six tests on that thing, a failure would probably lead to an "Equal Move" lower, which points down to "about" the $150 "area"......

$150 doesn't really "fit" any support areas, other than being a nice round number. Since the 1930's the average Bear market lasts 18 months and loses 40% (we are NOT in a Bear market), 38.2% (close to 40%) of the run up from the 2009 low is $157.70, 50% from the 2011 low is $160.19, the high from October 2007 is $157.52 (VERY close to 40%), so, Ya know, any numbers around those "areas" sound about right...........
Lot's of talking heads are being sent to the boob box to deny any chance at all of a recession any time in the future, it sure reminds me a lot of the "Green Shoots" crowd in 2007, just before all those talking heads were completely taken by surprise....... ANY WAY, like I have said before, going back to Roosevelt, Theodore that is, we have never had a President who served more than one, or any part of more than, one term, who didn't leave his successor with a recession to deal with. I'm, SURE, though, that Obama's policies will break that stat..... really, I'm positive.....

Just like last week there are only two candle glance charts on buy signals, the 20 SMA above the 50, that's GLD and TLT. One bright note is that the 20 sma on IYT flattened and is "trying" to turn higher, VWO is also trying to flatten, but, "TRYING" to flatten or turn up sound like pretty weak bright spots if you ask me........

The same two Bullish Percent indexes from last week are on buy, $BPUTIL and $BPENER.

The sectors have only one buy signal, again, XLU.

Huge change from last week in my 77 markets where 25 were higher last week, only 20 were higher this week, and 3 of those were inverse funds ........... GDX was really shining again this week, any thing mining or material was good, XME up 1.60%, silver and gold, TLT was the leader of OUR major markets, AGAIN, up 2.16%, that stalwart Peru was the leading country, AGAIN, EPU up 4.47%, EWZ needs what ever EPU has been taking.

Wow, USO down 6.51% on the week, and this after being up 4.26% on Friday. India made an unusual showing on the loser's list, down 6.19% as growth slowed, LUCKILY, though, our markets rallied because OPEC said that growth was so shitty they were going to reduce production to try and raise prices, which they think is the CURE for shitty economic growth, hahahahahahahaha, wad ever, I'm sure it will help EPI.
Our major market winner of the loser's this week was QQQ, down .10%, SPY was next at -.70%,  DIA third at -1.21%, with the little guys last, IWM down 1.48% on the week.

Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, I would "guess" that most of it is earnings related, again.
 175 stocks were higher vs 151 last week, ZERO stocks closed with an RSI 14 above 80 vs 2 last week,  ZERO stocks had a -20 RSI vs 1 last week, meaning, it's just a horrible environment for option seller's as nothing is over bought or over sold.  The NYSE had 68 PSAR buy signals vs 33 last week and 74 sell signals vs 214 last week,  69 new CCI buys vs 65 and 22sells vs 186 last week, 25 52 wk highs vs 67 and 69 lows vs 130.

And here's the loser's, CHK said they are not, DEFINITELY NOT, going to file BK, no way, really, honest............... a lot of oil names on there, I was sure that with OPEC saying higher prices would cure all the world's problems they would all be up..........

"How likely is a recession in the U.S.?"
Our friends at Elliott Wave International kindly share with us this report from the February issue ofThe Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, their flagship monthly publication.
It tells you about three factors you should be aware of that make a U.S. recession likely.
As usual, the Elliott wave guys give you an unconventional perspective.


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