Saturday, February 27, 2016

WEEKLY AND MONTHLY WRAP UP FOR FEBRUARY





(double click for larger view)

No change in the breath indicators this week, $NYMO and the main men $NYAD remain on buy signals and look very good, and while the $NYSI remains on a solid sell signal the $NYHL has kind of, sorts, moved into a flattish kind of bottomish type of buy signal, although it hasn't actually moved higher, so I'm kind of Iffy Anncie about direction.  On the NYSE 71 stocks made new 52 wk highs vs 40 last week and 24 new lows vs 34.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks 280 stocks were 4% HIGHER Friday vs 170 on Thursday, so a positive divergence for the end of the month pumping, as the INDU and SPY finished lower.


The "Carlucci Indicator" needs four metrics to give a new buy signal after a major market decline, we have ONE, the weekly STOCH black line is above the red line, the weekly RSI is NOT above 50, the weekly MACD black line is NOT above the red line, and only 40% of stocks in the $OEX are above the 200 DMA, you need 65% for a new buy signal.
So with 50% of the breath indicators on buy signals and 25% of the Carlucci indicators on buy I'll leave it up to your discretion, AGAIN, Do wad Ya gotta Do.........


Some good news is that the P and F for the SPX is on buy and on buy for the $BPSPX, it's been awhile since that happened, both of them being on buy that is. 


The SPY daily chart is "trying" to do a Dave Landry "Bow Tie", the green circle on the right, the last signal was the red circle going into the start of the year.


The weekly SPY is still on sell and has several "bad" things, the red circle in October when the 10 weekly MA crossed below the 40 MA, mid December when the HMA went red in the red circle on the right, the HMA is still red, and the MACD actually has a negative divergence with October low.
The good things are the rest of the "indicators" actually have positive divergences, and VERY importantly the ROC at the bottom is crossing above the ZERO line. It did, however, start to hook down the past week and, COULD, be setting up for a reject of the ZERO line. 
A site I REALLY like, http://imarketsignals.com/ , has been in bonds since November, check out the stats on their iM-Combo5 model. 
This article is their own earnings market timing model for the S and P 500 based on the 12 month trailing income models for all 500 stocks, and it compares very much to the current "earnings recession" being bandied about by the yakking screaming talking heads, the model projects a move to 1660 in the SPX over the next three months. 


There are still only two candle glance charts on buy signals, the 20 SMA above the 50, that's GLD and TLT, the $TRAN are right on it and any up day on Monday triggers it.


There are five Bullish Percent indexes on buy, up from two last week, plus $BPSPX and $BPSTAP are just a gnat's ass away from their own new buy signals. Big improvement this week.


The sectors only increased their buy signals 33% this week, from two to three, with XME joining XLU and XLP, XLI, XLE and XLB are very close. 


XHB was the winner in my 77 markets this week, up 4.38% because, I GUESS, of the 9.4% M/O/M DROP in new home sales.......... hahahahahahahaha, the "markets" are wonderful, they are ..........
The big lagger in our major markets this year was the big winner this week, IWM up 2.73%, then QQQ at 1.77%, SPY 1.61%, and the BIG dogs were the little dogs this week, DIA up 1.58%.


Here's the big winner's for the past month, the way I see it is you look at the Perf Year columan and you got your winners, I guess that's called reversion to the mean, or maybe MEAN to the people trying to short them. The only one HIGHER for the last year is GLD, which surprises the shit out of me..........


Here's the loser's,one hell of a lot more than the 12 we had last week, 32 of them this week, I have no idea what happened in South Africa other than maybe the leader of Brazil packed up and moved over there. Interesting, not one of our sectors or majors on that page, we probably make up for it next week.......


The monthly loser's look very much like the weekly loser's above, hhhmmmmmm, you think there's some correlation there??????


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, once again you can look at the yearly column, and, hhhhhmmmm, with CHK up 35% and down 84% for the year, does that mean it was down 119% before this past week???? LOL! There are some that have appeared to trend for the past year, like MSI, FSLR, and ALLE.
88 stocks were lower this week vs 19 last week,  one stock closed with an RSI 14 above 80, FOSL,  ZERO were -20 RSI, meaning the horrible environment for option seller's continues.



Absolutely no surprise at all to see FCX right at the top of the monthly winner's, I mean, after all, it's "metrics" are just fricking wonderful........ woooo hoooo! I've been working FCX and X over the past month so I just ignored AA, I may watch it for a viable pull back, which may have started with the awful looking candle Friday. 


And here's the loser's for the week, I see MU pulling it's typical bull shit, down to $10 from over $35, I mean, if you want to trade it, like REGIS, fine, just try not to make it into an investment.


Here's the monthly loser's, and, MAN, check out the red in the yearly and YTD column, wow, it looks like loser's just tend to stay loser's more than they revert to the mean up above. I see nothing I'm interested in.

Housing: At the Edge of Another Huge Cliff?.


"How likely is a recession in the U.S.?"
Our friends at Elliott Wave International kindly share with us this report from the February issue ofThe Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, their flagship monthly publication.
It tells you about three factors you should be aware of that make a U.S. recession likely.
As usual, the Elliott wave guys give you an unconventional perspective.

0 Comments:

blogger templates | Make Money Online