Sunday, February 28, 2016

"POSSIBLE" TRADE "IDEAS" FOR 2/29/2016 FROM IVICA

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

ENR- LONG IDEA

 ENTRY OVER HOD AND STOP UNDER LOD, ACCEPT SHORTS OF COURSE. 


NOC- LONG IDEA

TAP- SHORT IDEA

IMAX- SHORT IDEA

WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP, DANGER, DANGER, POSSIBLE MARKET VOLATILITY AHEAD,  ETC ETC, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!!!!

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. We are NOT Investment Advisors, so please consult your own investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!

Housing: At the Edge of Another Huge Cliff?.

"How likely is a recession in the U.S.?"
Our friends at Elliott Wave International kindly share with us this report from the February issue ofThe Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, their flagship monthly publication.
It tells you about three factors you should be aware of that make a U.S. recession likely.
As usual, the Elliott wave guys give you an unconventional perspective.

Saturday, February 27, 2016

WEEKLY AND MONTHLY WRAP UP FOR FEBRUARY





(double click for larger view)

No change in the breath indicators this week, $NYMO and the main men $NYAD remain on buy signals and look very good, and while the $NYSI remains on a solid sell signal the $NYHL has kind of, sorts, moved into a flattish kind of bottomish type of buy signal, although it hasn't actually moved higher, so I'm kind of Iffy Anncie about direction.  On the NYSE 71 stocks made new 52 wk highs vs 40 last week and 24 new lows vs 34.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks 280 stocks were 4% HIGHER Friday vs 170 on Thursday, so a positive divergence for the end of the month pumping, as the INDU and SPY finished lower.


The "Carlucci Indicator" needs four metrics to give a new buy signal after a major market decline, we have ONE, the weekly STOCH black line is above the red line, the weekly RSI is NOT above 50, the weekly MACD black line is NOT above the red line, and only 40% of stocks in the $OEX are above the 200 DMA, you need 65% for a new buy signal.
So with 50% of the breath indicators on buy signals and 25% of the Carlucci indicators on buy I'll leave it up to your discretion, AGAIN, Do wad Ya gotta Do.........


Some good news is that the P and F for the SPX is on buy and on buy for the $BPSPX, it's been awhile since that happened, both of them being on buy that is. 


The SPY daily chart is "trying" to do a Dave Landry "Bow Tie", the green circle on the right, the last signal was the red circle going into the start of the year.


The weekly SPY is still on sell and has several "bad" things, the red circle in October when the 10 weekly MA crossed below the 40 MA, mid December when the HMA went red in the red circle on the right, the HMA is still red, and the MACD actually has a negative divergence with October low.
The good things are the rest of the "indicators" actually have positive divergences, and VERY importantly the ROC at the bottom is crossing above the ZERO line. It did, however, start to hook down the past week and, COULD, be setting up for a reject of the ZERO line. 
A site I REALLY like, http://imarketsignals.com/ , has been in bonds since November, check out the stats on their iM-Combo5 model. 
This article is their own earnings market timing model for the S and P 500 based on the 12 month trailing income models for all 500 stocks, and it compares very much to the current "earnings recession" being bandied about by the yakking screaming talking heads, the model projects a move to 1660 in the SPX over the next three months. 


There are still only two candle glance charts on buy signals, the 20 SMA above the 50, that's GLD and TLT, the $TRAN are right on it and any up day on Monday triggers it.


There are five Bullish Percent indexes on buy, up from two last week, plus $BPSPX and $BPSTAP are just a gnat's ass away from their own new buy signals. Big improvement this week.


The sectors only increased their buy signals 33% this week, from two to three, with XME joining XLU and XLP, XLI, XLE and XLB are very close. 


XHB was the winner in my 77 markets this week, up 4.38% because, I GUESS, of the 9.4% M/O/M DROP in new home sales.......... hahahahahahahaha, the "markets" are wonderful, they are ..........
The big lagger in our major markets this year was the big winner this week, IWM up 2.73%, then QQQ at 1.77%, SPY 1.61%, and the BIG dogs were the little dogs this week, DIA up 1.58%.


Here's the big winner's for the past month, the way I see it is you look at the Perf Year columan and you got your winners, I guess that's called reversion to the mean, or maybe MEAN to the people trying to short them. The only one HIGHER for the last year is GLD, which surprises the shit out of me..........


Here's the loser's,one hell of a lot more than the 12 we had last week, 32 of them this week, I have no idea what happened in South Africa other than maybe the leader of Brazil packed up and moved over there. Interesting, not one of our sectors or majors on that page, we probably make up for it next week.......


The monthly loser's look very much like the weekly loser's above, hhhmmmmmm, you think there's some correlation there??????


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, once again you can look at the yearly column, and, hhhhhmmmm, with CHK up 35% and down 84% for the year, does that mean it was down 119% before this past week???? LOL! There are some that have appeared to trend for the past year, like MSI, FSLR, and ALLE.
88 stocks were lower this week vs 19 last week,  one stock closed with an RSI 14 above 80, FOSL,  ZERO were -20 RSI, meaning the horrible environment for option seller's continues.



Absolutely no surprise at all to see FCX right at the top of the monthly winner's, I mean, after all, it's "metrics" are just fricking wonderful........ woooo hoooo! I've been working FCX and X over the past month so I just ignored AA, I may watch it for a viable pull back, which may have started with the awful looking candle Friday. 


And here's the loser's for the week, I see MU pulling it's typical bull shit, down to $10 from over $35, I mean, if you want to trade it, like REGIS, fine, just try not to make it into an investment.


Here's the monthly loser's, and, MAN, check out the red in the yearly and YTD column, wow, it looks like loser's just tend to stay loser's more than they revert to the mean up above. I see nothing I'm interested in.

Housing: At the Edge of Another Huge Cliff?.


"How likely is a recession in the U.S.?"
Our friends at Elliott Wave International kindly share with us this report from the February issue ofThe Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, their flagship monthly publication.
It tells you about three factors you should be aware of that make a U.S. recession likely.
As usual, the Elliott wave guys give you an unconventional perspective.

Monday, February 22, 2016

"POSSIBLE" TRADE "IDEAS" FOR 2/22/2016 FROM IVICA

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

AME- LONG IDEA

 ENTRY OVER HOD AND STOP UNDER LOD, ACCEPT SHORTS OF COURSE. 


CRUS- LONG IDEA

EDU- LONG IDEA

WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP, DANGER, DANGER, POSSIBLE MARKET VOLATILITY AHEAD,  ETC ETC, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!!!!

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. We are NOT Investment Advisors, so please consult your own investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!

Housing: At the Edge of Another Huge Cliff?.

"How likely is a recession in the U.S.?"
Our friends at Elliott Wave International kindly share with us this report from the February issue ofThe Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, their flagship monthly publication.
It tells you about three factors you should be aware of that make a U.S. recession likely.
As usual, the Elliott wave guys give you an unconventional perspective.

Saturday, February 20, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 2/19/2016




(double click for larger view)

Last week all the breath indicators were on sell, this week two of them, $NYMO and the main men $NYAD, moved to buy signals, while the $NYSI and $NYHL remain on solid sell signals. Neither the NYSE or the %NYAD's are above their February highs so there is no divergences. Wednesday was a very slight accumulation day while Thursday was a very slight "distribution" day, with basically low volume the entire week. On the NYSE 40 stocks made new 52 wk highs vs 25 last week and 37 new lows vs 96.
In my market monitor of about 2900 stocks 74 stocks ended the week 4% LOWER, which is the lowest number since December 29, which was a top, and then August 31, which led to that huge gap down in September and an eventual re-test of the August lows. I'm not saying that's going to happen, I'm just spitting out numbers. 


The "Carlucci Indicator" needs four metrics to give a new buy signal after a major market decline, we have ONE, the weekly STOCH black line is above the red line, the weekly RSI is NOT above 50, the weekly MACD black line is NOT above the red line, and only 32% of stocks in the $OEX are above the 200 DMA, you need 65% for a new buy signal.
So with 50% of the breath indicators on buy signals and 25% of the Carlucci indicators on buy I'll leave it up to your discretion. Do wad Ya gotta Do.........



Just like last week there are still only two candle glance charts on buy signals, the 20 SMA above the 50, that's GLD and TLT.


The same two Bullish Percent indexes from last week are on buy, $BPUTIL and $BPENER, BUTT, $BPDISC, $BPMATE, $BPSTAP and $BPHEAL are just a gnat's ass away from their own new buy signals and any up day on Monday will trigger them, so much improvement in the BP's.


The sectors DOUBLED their buy signals this week, woooo hooooo, from one to TWO, with XLP joining XLU, and you could probably get in a fist fight over whether XME triggered or not, it's that close. 


Huge change from last week in my 77 markets where 20 were higher last week, 65 were higher this week, and even more impressive than that was that Mexico knocked Peru out of the leading Country race, EWW up 8.29%, as they found the cure for cancer in gasoline I guess. There's that XME in third place, semi's had a big week, SMH up 7.71%, even China was up over 7%. IWM was our leading major this week, up 5.97%, then QQQ at 5.26%, SPY at 5%, with DIA coming in last with a paltry 4.4% increase this week.
The take away of course is that an earning recession doesn't mean a damn thing in this era of massive market manipulations by Central Banks around the world.
Here's a snap shot of the great economic news that caused the spike this week:


But... but.... but.... but...... I stammer, but they were all doggie crap..... well, yeaaaaa, that's GOOOOOOOOOOOOD, as it keeps the FED on the side lines, wooooo hoooooo, the shittier the economic reports the better, yeaaaaa baby.......


BTWIM, here's the loser's, all 12 of them, it was bonds, bonds and more bonds, and GLD and SLV, and the inverse funds of course.


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, I would "guess" that most of it is earnings related, or CB related....... hahahahahaha
I actually have FCX, I have for awhile and I've been selling call's against it, with my average price about 5.75, and I sold out at the EXACT high of $7.60 this week....................... hahahahahahahahahaha, yyeeeeaaaaaaaa, rrrrriiiiggggghhhhttttt, I did get a bunch of it in the seven's though, I've kept some to see if I can start adding again at lower prices, to see if I can get myselrf in trouble again, he he he..........
 Only 19 stocks were lower this week vs 151 last week, I'm not sure if that 19 is a record or not, once again ZERO stocks closed with an RSI 14 above 80 OR -20 RSI, meaning the horrible environment for option seller's continues.


And here's the loser's, a lot of oil names on there, and again, I was sure that with OPEC saying higher prices would cure all the world's problems I assumed they would all be UP instead.......... kind of funny to see Wally World and Mickey D on the loser's list, the poor old average American can't even afford to buy the low end shit I guess, sigh...................

"How likely is a recession in the U.S.?"
Our friends at Elliott Wave International kindly share with us this report from the February issue ofThe Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, their flagship monthly publication.
It tells you about three factors you should be aware of that make a U.S. recession likely.
As usual, the Elliott wave guys give you an unconventional perspective.

Monday, February 15, 2016

"POSSIBLE" TRADE "IDEAS" FOR 2/16/2016 FROM IVICA

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

SYT- LONG IDEA


 ENTRY OVER HOD AND STOP UNDER LOD, ACCEPT SHORTS OF COURSE. 


CAR- LONG IDEA


DBD- SHORT IDEA
PKG- SHORT IDEA

WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP, DANGER, DANGER, POSSIBLE MARKET VOLATILITY AHEAD,  ETC ETC, TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!!!!

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. We are NOT Investment Advisors, so please consult your own investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!

"How likely is a recession in the U.S.?"
Our friends at Elliott Wave International kindly share with us this report from the February issue ofThe Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, their flagship monthly publication.
It tells you about three factors you should be aware of that make a U.S. recession likely.
As usual, the Elliott wave guys give you an unconventional perspective.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 2/12/2016





(double click for larger view)

All the breath indicators are on sell, the $NYMO just joined the party on the big up day Friday, the main men at the top, $NYAD, made a lower low while the NYSE did not, so, IE, a negative divergence, you want to see the $NYAD's leading us higher.
You never know if some thing like Friday is a short covering rally or not for a few weeks, at least until we get a sustained up trend with higher lows and highs, but the "breath" on Friday was not very good, between Thursday and Friday Thursday was a "distribution" day while Friday was NOT an accumulation day, in my "Market Monitor" composed of over 2900 stocks I had 16 make new 52 wk highs and 112 make new lows, 124 made new 20 day highs while 348 made new lows, on the SP 500 5 made new highs while 6 made new lows, notable for the lack of ANY THING going on, 12 made 20 day highs and 81 new lows, and on the NYSE 25 made new 52 wk highs and 96 new lows, pretty much dog crap all the way through.


So, are you in the camp that believes the more times you test support the more likely it is to hold, or the more likely it is to fail? There's six tests on that thing, a failure would probably lead to an "Equal Move" lower, which points down to "about" the $150 "area"......


$150 doesn't really "fit" any support areas, other than being a nice round number. Since the 1930's the average Bear market lasts 18 months and loses 40% (we are NOT in a Bear market), 38.2% (close to 40%) of the run up from the 2009 low is $157.70, 50% from the 2011 low is $160.19, the high from October 2007 is $157.52 (VERY close to 40%), so, Ya know, any numbers around those "areas" sound about right...........
Lot's of talking heads are being sent to the boob box to deny any chance at all of a recession any time in the future, it sure reminds me a lot of the "Green Shoots" crowd in 2007, just before all those talking heads were completely taken by surprise....... ANY WAY, like I have said before, going back to Roosevelt, Theodore that is, we have never had a President who served more than one, or any part of more than, one term, who didn't leave his successor with a recession to deal with. I'm, SURE, though, that Obama's policies will break that stat..... really, I'm positive.....



Just like last week there are only two candle glance charts on buy signals, the 20 SMA above the 50, that's GLD and TLT. One bright note is that the 20 sma on IYT flattened and is "trying" to turn higher, VWO is also trying to flatten, but, "TRYING" to flatten or turn up sound like pretty weak bright spots if you ask me........


The same two Bullish Percent indexes from last week are on buy, $BPUTIL and $BPENER.


The sectors have only one buy signal, again, XLU.


Huge change from last week in my 77 markets where 25 were higher last week, only 20 were higher this week, and 3 of those were inverse funds ........... GDX was really shining again this week, any thing mining or material was good, XME up 1.60%, silver and gold, TLT was the leader of OUR major markets, AGAIN, up 2.16%, that stalwart Peru was the leading country, AGAIN, EPU up 4.47%, EWZ needs what ever EPU has been taking.


Wow, USO down 6.51% on the week, and this after being up 4.26% on Friday. India made an unusual showing on the loser's list, down 6.19% as growth slowed, LUCKILY, though, our markets rallied because OPEC said that growth was so shitty they were going to reduce production to try and raise prices, which they think is the CURE for shitty economic growth, hahahahahahahaha, wad ever, I'm sure it will help EPI.
Our major market winner of the loser's this week was QQQ, down .10%, SPY was next at -.70%,  DIA third at -1.21%, with the little guys last, IWM down 1.48% on the week.


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, I would "guess" that most of it is earnings related, again.
 175 stocks were higher vs 151 last week, ZERO stocks closed with an RSI 14 above 80 vs 2 last week,  ZERO stocks had a -20 RSI vs 1 last week, meaning, it's just a horrible environment for option seller's as nothing is over bought or over sold.  The NYSE had 68 PSAR buy signals vs 33 last week and 74 sell signals vs 214 last week,  69 new CCI buys vs 65 and 22sells vs 186 last week, 25 52 wk highs vs 67 and 69 lows vs 130.


And here's the loser's, CHK said they are not, DEFINITELY NOT, going to file BK, no way, really, honest............... a lot of oil names on there, I was sure that with OPEC saying higher prices would cure all the world's problems they would all be up..........

"How likely is a recession in the U.S.?"
Our friends at Elliott Wave International kindly share with us this report from the February issue ofThe Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, their flagship monthly publication.
It tells you about three factors you should be aware of that make a U.S. recession likely.
As usual, the Elliott wave guys give you an unconventional perspective.

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