Saturday, January 16, 2016

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 1/15/2016


Well, it may not be the end of the world, but it's the end of the six year bull market, at least according to Tony Caldaro at OEW it is, http://bit.ly/1Sonag6 . Now, why do I mention him???? Because six, seven or eight years ago, I don't remember exactly, in the throes of the great recession, I laughed at him when he came out and made the outrageous statement that the bear market was over and the market was going to new all time highs, AND BEYOND!! I won't make THAT mistake again, I can tell you that. 


(double click for larger view)

Tony says the bear market will "probably" last about a year, and if typical, will lose 40-50% of it's value (John Hussman has historical data that confirms those numbers), which would put the low "around" 1100. That's a pretty interesting number on that chart above, as it's the lows from 2011, the orange line. I also find the 38.2% retracement line of the entire bull market from 2009 interesting as it's the highs from 2007, the red line. 50% is ALWAYS interesting as a retracement, but I really don't see all that much at the 1400 level. 
Another REALLY interesting thingey is the Fibonacci TIME SERIES on that chart, they are EXACTLY equal from the highs in 2000 to the highs in 2007 to the highs in 2015, the magenta vertical lines, I'm sure it's just all some weird coincident, hahahahahahahahaha..............
Here's some more stat's, we've had quite a few CONSECUTIVE SIX YEAR bull markets, but NEVER seven years in a row, PLUS, we've only had TWO times where the market gained more than 200% prior to the current bull market, and they ended in 1928 and 1999.................. hahahahahahahahahahaha......... hhhmmmmmm, let's see, what happened after those two years....... hhhhmmmmm, hold on, I'm still thinking...................
Here's another one, EVERY President since FDR that served more than one term, including partial terms, left his successor with a RECESSION, every one, I didn't check before FDR, but it "probably" holds true for all of them, and let's see, Obama is going to leave his successor with the weakest "recovery" in the modern era since 1950, the complete destruction of various areas of the economy like coal, mining, manufacturing, fossil fuels, etc etc, higher and more taxes, and his crown jewel, Obamacare, which goes with the prior since the Supreme Court said it was a TAX and therefore legal............. I mean, what could possibly go wrong???????


 There's dozens of "over sold" thingey's that are saying we ARE over sold, BUTT, of course, if you were around in 2000 and 2008 you know that over sold can get WAY MORE OVER SOLD!! ANYWAY, with that said (that's a DISCLAIMER), my Market Monitor of over 2900 stocks had a couple of records Friday, the red boxes on 52 wk highs and 20 day highs, the orange box under SP 500 52 wk lows was only exceeded by the 182 on August 24, and the orange box under SP 500 20 day highs has been tied a couple of times, like August 24 and, surprisingly, December 30. 
Those are over sold numbers, what I find disturbing is that there weren't MORE RECORDS, I mean, hhhhhhmmmm ................. that leaves room for MORE RECORDS some where down the road. 


Here's a chart that's NOT over sold, the NYSE, well, it's not over sold on the RSI compared to August 24th, but that's GOOD, as we've made a lower low in price and are "trying" to make a HIGHER LOW in the RSI, IE, a divergence. It also shows up on the MACD Histogram, PLUS, the two big red vertical lines show we've fallen almost exactly the same amount from the 50 DMA as we did in August, so, an "Equal Move" scenario. 
So, Ya know, there's little things hinting we may get a bounce, at SOME point (that's a DISCLAIMER as well, hahahahaha)......

You can just about repeat every thing I said last week about the candle glance charts, the Bullish Percent indexes dropped to only one on a buy, and that's a new one,  $BPUTIL, which XLU is also the only sector on a buy, so I'm not going to waste my time posting the charts.


There were only 9 winner's in my 77 markets last week, down from 11 the previous week, two countries were higher for the week, TUR and THD, XLU was the sector winner behind TLT.


The loser's were, of course, Legion (AGAIN!), with the best of the worst down at the bottom of this page being EIRL, and it was down 3.99% (mind you, NOT 4%!!).  China was, again, NOT the worst index, that belongs to Egypt, EGPT down 12.98%, FXI was actually in back of Putin, RSX down 7.05%. None of our major markets are on this list, meaning, they were actually pretty good! Our winner was SPY, "only" down 2.14%, beating out DIA by a WIDE margin, DIA down 2.18%, then the NasDOGS, QQQ down 3.05%, with the winner's this week, eeeeerrrrrrr, loser's, being the little guys, IWM down 3.59%, plus they entered a BEAR MARKET on Wednesday, down over 20% from their June highs, so they are officially the first of our majors to do so, and, I'm sure, they probably be the LAST to do so, right? RIGHT?? RIGHT???


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, CMG must have found the cure for botulism, hahahahaha, like, their employee's washing their hands??? I have no idea why some of these are higher, I know there's been a lot of chatter about guru's buying PSX, why the hell XOM was up, other than they rip every one and make tons of money, is beyond me, the same with CPB, did they find the cure for cancer in soup?


And here's the loser's, AA is in the 14 spot, they actually did what they needed to do to get the stock to DOUBLE, and that's LOSE money, but I guess "inwestors" are no longer on their dumb shit ways and decided that maybe earnings actually DO matter, wad ever.
No stock in the SP 500 closed with a 52 wk high Friday, and 128 closed on lows vs 79 last week, 1 stocks closed on 20 day highs this week, HAS, and 355 on lows vs 278 last week, no stock closed with an RSI 14 above 80,  13 stocks had a -20 RSI.  The NYSE had 34 PSAR buy signals vs 18 last week and 60 sell signals vs 138 last week,  12 new CCI buys vs 24 and 168 sells vs 145 last week, 36 52 wk highs vs 38 and 879 lows vs 538.


OK, enough of the BS, let's get to GDX, Yea baby, YEA, hahahaha, god, what a piece of shit, sigh, I'm not in it but I'm still intrigued, it's working on a SEX-trupple bottom at $13, what ever that means, and it looks........... H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E! It's got this massive BBSqueeze working in the red box, and it just triggered to the down side, it put on a BEARISH ENGULFING on Friday, and is sitting right on the lower bollinger, and by all rights it SHOULD start walking DOWN that bollinger!! Udder Dan Dat, this thing looks GREAT! And, OH, GOLD opened UP 20 points on Friday, and this thing still couldn't hold it's gains, I mean, WOW!!! It seems like some thing I'd be stupid enough to buy, hahahahahahaha........
Ok, now, I hear a LOT of people saying to buy GOLD because it's a safe haven in bear markets and goes higher, well:


GLD went DOWN in 2008, about 35% high to low, AND:


GDX got RIPPED, losing 73 stinking percent high to low, I mean, people can tell you all they want to, I hate to burst some one's bubble with some actual FACTS, hahahahaha, sigh, what a crock.........
I have to admit it, that monthly chart looks awful, really, the only GOOD part about it, is if you want to get involved, at least you know EXACTLY where your STOP would be, some where under $13, Ya know, with what ever risk parameters your EXTENSIVE trading plan DICTATES..... if it loses another 73% it will only go to 3.51, so you'd only lose $9.49 cents if you went all in buying ONE share, woooo hooooo.....
I would certainly NEVER say that gold can't go up during the next bear market, you have to decide for yourself, it just didn't do it in 08'.....
Good luck to you.

For those interested Bloomberg will be doing a "special" from 6 PM ET on Sunday until the European markets close on Monday, meaning, of course, that either the markets will go to Da Moooooon, or not do any thing, hahahahaha, much like when Bubblevision does their Markets in Turmoil BS.
Of course, I fail to understand why Bloomberg is not on at ALL TIMES when ANY markets are open on ANY days, but, wad ever................

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