Saturday, January 02, 2016

WEEKLY AND YEARLY WRAP UP FOR 12/31/2015

I'd like to wish every one the best of luck in 2016, I sincerely hope we ALL make a million bucks each with the Blue Bird of happiness chirping away. 

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I hate to start the new year out by being a Debbie Downer, and do some thing stupid like talking about actual NUMBERS, like, those coming from the source of ALL information, Standard and Poors, but .......
One year ago, in the red boxes at the bottom of the tables above, SP was calling for earnings of $137.19 and a P/E of 13.65, which, I might add, that P/E is just about the average over the last 100 years, so, what SP is NOW saying, is that earnings are going to come in at $95.47, or 30% LOWER, and the P/E is 40% HIGHER, and, YET, the SP closed almost FLAT for the year, so why isn't the S and P trading 30% LOWER than where it was when those "estimates" were built into the models last year???? That IS the question, isn't it, SOME BODY, is screwing "inwestors" out of the opportunity of being able to buy the index at MUCH lower prices, hhhhhmmmmmm, I wonder who THAT could be, maybe, like, can you spell F-E-D??
Ya know, I'm sorry I even bought this up, sigh, it doesn't matter, the markets will go where they will go, all this shows is that predictions are pure BULL SHIT, as is the idea that the market is "FORWARD LOOKING", as we SHOULD be trading 30% LOWER than last year,  in order to be in line with the HUGE earnings miss. I just find some "things" interesting, like, the last time the SP had as reported earnings of close to that $95.47 was 9/30/2013, when the earnings were 94.37 and the index was trading at 1681.55, 19% lower than where it is now, and of course, ALSO, if we were trading at that 13.65 P/E right now the index would be at 1,303.16. SP also says earnings will be down 5.9% for the year, but that without the energy sector earnings would be UP 5.6%, which is still a LOT LESS than what they were "guesstimating" a year ago, PLUS, they said that share buy backs contributed 4% to the earnings, so we were probably only up 1.6%.
Wad ever, none of this means a damn thing, it's just shit that I find kind of interesting........


The main men, the $NYAD, have weakened, but are still on a buy signal, but are in danger of making the much dreaded lower high, but of course that gets negated by making a higher high. 


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The $NYSI still remains on a pretty lousy looking sell signal,  it's making a much greater lower high than the last sell signal way back last June, but at least its starting to try and flatten out. 


I mentioned last week that the $NYHL was "hooking" up, and indeed it issued a new buy signal this week, although just by the tiniest of margins, I do like the positive cross of the MACD.
The $NYMO joined the buy party this week, so three out of four breath indicators are positive this week.


Speaking of the $NYHL, my Market Monitor brought up some thing interesting, even with the two big down days on Wednesday and Thursday the 52 week highs on both the SP 500 and the NYSE were MUCH higher than the lows, thus the new buy signal, PLUS, the 4% UP stocks were double the 4% DOWN stocks on Thursday, that's out of over 2900 stocks.
Maybe we get a big surprise before the open Monday, I don't know, the divergence is really interesting though............


I DON'T like the SPY chart, mainly because we broke over the over head resistance line on Tuesday, and then closed back under it the last two days, hence, a FAILED BREAK OUT!! Of course, Da Boyz, Goldman and their buddies on Da Street, could take care of that little problem Sunday night by just gapping us back over that line before the open, WHICH, I wouldn't put past the scum bags, actually, I should say that nothing the Sweet Hearts do surprises me.............
ACTUALLY, what I should say is I always want to be positioned in such a manner that their "SURPRISES" don't hurt me to badly........



Out of 12 fairly major markets this week we jumped to TEN markets that are NOT on a Silver Cross buy signal, the 20 SMA above the 50, we had seven last week, actually, I need to turn this around and just mention the ones that ARE on a buy signal, the TLT, AND, the $TNX, which of course, is, IMPOSSIBLE, as they are SUPPOSED to go the opposite of each other, BUTT, thanks to the stinking FED, weird things are common in markets these days.........


The Bullish Percent indexes, which are created using point and figure charts of the COMPONENTS of the major indexes,  remain with only two NOT on sell signals, $BPHEAL and $BPSTAP, Health and staples, which are about as defensive sectors as you can find.


Out of 12 SP sectors ten are now with the BEARISH Silver Cross party this week, it was 8 last week, only XLP and XLV are on buy signals heading into the new year.


Man, it was a bad week, only 9 winner's in my 77 markets last week, and I consider a few of them to be BAD, like UNG, DBA and UUP, EIS and EWA were the only countries to be higher.


GDX triggered this week, just NOT in  the direction I wanted, sigh, such is life, it has four bars and the normal it about eight bars in one direction, plus it hasn't even hit the lower bollinger, yet, sooooo, it could still have room to run, although it's very tough to trade it.

It's all about the "BBSqueeze".


GLD is in a squeeze and has just triggered to the down side, others include AKS, ARG, ATVI, AXP, BCR, BMY, CERN, DHI, EA, EIX, ENDP, EQIX, ESRX, ESV, ETFC, and 46 others in the SP 500.


The were of course Legion, and pretty consistent to the down side, from -4.65% to -2.21% just on this page, they were mostly all those Udder Worldly indexes plus oil.
 The NasDOGS were the "winner" of the "loser's" this week for our majors, QQQ "only" down .67%, then the DIA and SPY were tied at -1.04.%, with IWM taking the brunt of the selling at  -1.4% on the week.  JNK was actually kind of a winner again this week as it was only down .32%, they just loooooove higher interest rates...............


Here's the winner's for the year, Ireland whupped ass, up 20%, whodda thunk, Hong Kong doesn't surprise me, of the 9.44% gain in the QQQ 20% of it was in the FANG stocks............ hahahahahahahahaha, that's a joke of course.......... or iiiiisssssssssss it......... the SPY was the best of the rest, up a whopping 1.23% before dividends.


Here's the loser's for the year, it was kind of instructive to me personally, as I don't see any surprises, MEANING, I keep track of the LOSER'S more than the winner's, MEANING, maybe my New Year's resolution should be to be more positive, therefore I will start NOW,.......... I'm, POSITIVE, that the markets SUCK...................


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, I notice of the FANG leaders only AMZN is on the list:


And here's the loser's, stinking FCX went from a big winner last week to the numero doce loser this week,  MOS and CF are on the list I guess as a late reaction to their piss poor performance of this year due to the piss poor grain markets, POT has gotten killed as well. 2 stocks in the SP 500 closed with a 52 wk high Thursday vs 15 the week before,  and 2 closed on lows vs ZERO last week, 10 stocks closed on 20 day highs this week and 7 on lows, 2 stocks closed with an RSI 14 above 80, ALTR and ARG, again, ONE stocks had a -20 RSI, GME.  The NYSE had 35 PSAR buy signals vs 223 last week and 132 sell signals vs 5 last week,  58 new CCI buys vs 109 and 98 lows vs 8 last week, 90 52 wk highs vs 79 and 31 lows vs 4.

Why Not to "Bank" on It
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