Saturday, November 07, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 11/6/2015

(double click for larger images)

Here's a little fun with "GUESSTIMATES", "Forward Guidance", "The Market Has Built In", "The Market is a FORWARD Looking Mechanism", "ANAL"-lyst in general, Wall Street in General, the FED in general, etc etc etc, in the red circle on the SPY chart at the top is March of 2014, and the red box in the table under "2015 EST" is the "PROJECTED" earnings that were given on 3/31/2014, they were saying that 2015 would have earnings of $137.19, so with the $SPX sitting at 1875 it was trading at about a P/E of 13.68, so the market, based on those $137 earnings, went to where we are NOW, $SPX at 2099, and with those $137 "earnings" we "WOULD" have a P/E of 15.32.......... BUTT.......... there's a little problem...........


These tables all come right from the source, Standard and Poors, now, not only have full year earnings come down for four quarters in a row since 9/30/2014, in the red box, but in the black boxes for 12/31/2015, the end of this year, "THEY", S and P, are "ESTIMATING" we will earn $98.56, or 28.8 fricking percent LESS than what "THE MARKET WAS BUILDING IN" back in March of 2014!
So, rather than trading at 1335, which is 28.8% less than the 1875 we were trading at in March of 2014, with a P/E of  13.53 TTM, which is certainly an "investable" number, we are trading at 2099, with a TTM of 21.29, which is certainly not the 30 P/E of the 2000 "Bubble", but pretty damn close to the first quarter 2008 P/E of 21.90 directly prior to THAT collapse. 
I'm NOT saying we are going to collapse, we'll probably go back to that 30 P/E before that happens, I'm just bringing up how ridiculous the "PROJECTIONS" can be, they don't mean diddly fricking squat shit, nobody cares any way, and to be honest, I'm totally sorry I spent all this time talking about it, wasting my time and yours............


SURPRISINGLY, the $NYAD's are "trying" to get a SELL signal, stupid things, geeze, one down day and it would trigger, it would be NICE if they turned up instead on Monday.  


The $NYHL continue to look (as mentioned last week), aaaahhhhhh, AWFUL, moving sideways in a classic bear flag, with technical analysis s saying that when you get a down thrust (or UP thrust), move side ways, you then "CONTINUE" in the original direction, or DOWN in this case, wad ever..... 

The P and F chart for the $SPX  is still on a Red signal because of a "Long Tail Up" on 10/28/2015.


Out of 12 fairly major markets there is only ONE that is NOT on a Silver Cross buy signal, $TNX, BUTT, $CRB is on the verge of a negative cross, and on GLD, TLT and VWO the 20 SMA is now trending downward. 


I can say the exact same thing I said last week, "Every single one of the 12 Bullish Percent indexes were on Silver Crosses this week, so I guess that's, aaahh, well, eeerr, BULLISH."


Out of 12 SP sectors only one, XME, is on a BEARISH Silver Cross, BUTT, XHB and XRT are right smack on the verge of one, and XLU just got slaughtered on Friday, gapping all the way under the 50 SMA. By the way, that chart is a CLASSIC example of the down thrust, then bear flag and "CONTINUATION" pattern I talked about above, on the $NAYD's, just perfect, it is.


Here's the big winner's this week in my 77 markets, , did Brasil, EWZ, get rid of the bitch??? The little guys, IWM, are trying to make up distance on the big boys, leading our major markets this week by being up 3.35%, DIA was next at 1.50%, then the NasDOGS, QQQ up 1.29%, with the SPY being the DOG of the week, up 1.09%. Three markets closed on a 20 day high, IWM, UPP and XLF, vs 16 last week, so a much weaker close this week.



33 out of the 77 markets were down this week, and once AGAIN, the big "winner" in the loser's last week was GDX:


And I swear, SWEAR, just like I said last week, if we can get it back down to $13 I will DEFINITELY be taking another shot at it, although the thing really looks bad, hahahahaha, whew, man, that pay roll report did NOT help gold, that's for sure. We still have another report before the December FED meeting sooooooo, there's no guarantee they raise, in fact I watched an "expert" on Bloomberg last night who said they will NOT raise in December, but it's still the dollar that's driving gold, and if lyou look at the $USD chart up above it just recently triggered a Silver Bull cross signal, so it could have a LONG ways to go..........


Here's the beeg wiener's in the SP 500 this week, I have no idea what QRVO does, nor do I give a big flying what ever ..........................


And here's the loser's list, I am shocked, SHOCKED I TELL YA, to see QCOM as the winner, wow, how the mighty have fallen, it's also surprising to see NEM on there rather than some of the lesser gold stocks, FCX is another one I'm watching, but only if it can retest the $8 level.
19 stocks closed on 52 wk highs vs 21 last week and 8 on lows vs 4, 85 on 20 day highs vs 100 and 59 on lows vs 15, a little weak, 4 stocks closed with an RSI 14 above 80, ADSK, AMZN, DD and KLAC, the NYSE had 69 PSAR buy signals vs 103 last week and 361 lows vs 95, very weak, 67 new 52 wk highs vs 82 and 66 lows vs 46, 97 closed with a CCI buy vs 97, and 256 with a sell vs 137.

The Bear Market Meter is Running
Taxicab medallions and margin debt: A similar reversal in the making

By Elliott Wave International

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