Friday, August 28, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/28/2015

 (Double click on charts for larger view)

The main men, the $NYAD, was the only "Breath" indicator to trigger a buy signal today, there are, howeever, other things that gave buy signals.


The $NYHL is on it's longest sell signal since 2011, and is not even CLOSE to giving a buy signal.


Sameo sameo for the $NYSI, but at least it tried to hook higher on Friday.


Here's a candleglance for 12 important markets, the TLT is the ONLY one that is on a Silver Cross, 20 sma above 50 sma, one chart I kind of like is the dollar, $USD, that is one terrific looking "BEAR FLAG", with an easy STOP area, which is right above the compressed 20-50 sma's just above.


This is a chart that has been making the rounds for a while, but I think it's worth mentioning, it's a monthly chart of the $SPX with an MACD, the last times it made such a major SELL signal was in 2000 and 2007, and didn't come close to crossing back to the buy side until the bottoms in 03' and 09'. I mean, I know it's just an indicator, but personally I think it's just horrible looking. We did have whip saws in 1998 and 2011 but this is a much cleaner break that either one of those periods.

The good things I mentioned are the P and F chart for the $SPX is on a green "Double Top Breakout" from August 27, and  the $INDU, $COMPQ, $NDX and $NYA all show similar signals .........

The $BPSPX is on a green "Bull Alert" from Augusut 27 as well.


These are some f**ked up markets maaannnnnnnnn, we had like record UP days this week and yet the VXX was the leader in my 76 markets, up 24.87 stinking percent, OIL in the form of USO was next with a 12.47% gain, and yet the dollar, as in UPP, was 1.21% HIGHER on the week, which is an impossibility, BUTT, I guess it's NOT! Our best major market was on the first page, NasDOGS, with QQQ up 3.14% on the week, tied with EEM I might add, then you drop to DIA way down at only 1.09% on the week, SPY up .81%, with the little guys bringing up the rear, with IWM up .50%, right ahead of the transports with IYT up .47% on the week.


 Here's the loser's for the week, once again it surprises me to see XIV down 26%, I woulda thunk it would have switched positions with VXX, GDX was down 7.41% even with a 3% UP day on Friday, the markets are raising rates for the FED as TLT was down 3.19% on the week, just slightly more than their yearly SAFE yield ........
25 markets were lower on the week, a very unusual stat was that ZERO markets finished at a 20 day low this week and ZERO at a 20 day high, but that due to the huge drop the prior week, 12 markets finished on a Silver Cross vs 19 the prior week, quite a drop actually. The NYSE closed with 339 stocks on a PSAR buy and only 16 on a PSAR sell vs 30 and 483 last week, and here's a bad stat as only 8 closed at 52 wk highs and 7 at lows vs 13 and 522 last week, it was a rather LARGE drop in the lows, hahahahaha..........


Here's the beg wiener's for the week in the SP, CAM and GAS are buy outs I guess, BBY had some decent earnings, so I hear, I like the one down in 17th spot, FCX, that's basically a one day rise as Carl Icahn disclosed a stake in it, and the most amazing thing is the SEC did not IMMEDIATELY put him in jail for pumping it, I know damn well they would put me in jail if I had that kind of power.......


Here's the loser's for the week, I swear, SWEAR, that NEM will be a $65 stock again, maybe in 65 years ........... of course I have a position in GDX so I hope it opens there on Monday.........
One stock closed at a 52 wk high, SIG, and ONE at a low, ADSK, 7 finished at 20 day highs and 1 at a low, 194 closed with a Silver Cross vs 253 last week, kind of strange to see that decrease so much with the SPX finishing higher on the week, 1 stock closed with an RSI 14 above 80, GAS, none below 20, and 90 closed with an RSI above 50 and 410 below 50, so it's still VERY WEAK, despite what some people might try and bull shit you about.


Sunday, August 23, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/21/2015

Free Report: Pandemonium in the Stock Market

In this just-released report, you'll see new excerpts from our two flagship monthly publications, The Elliott Wave Theorist andThe Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Get valuable insight into the volatility we saw in the markets this week. We think you'll come away better prepared than most investors.


 (I shouldn't have to say it, but click on charts and tables to enlarge)

There was one market in those 12 above that is on a Silver Cross, 20 SMA above the 50 SMA, that's the TLT, the rest are on Death Crosses, and, EVERY THING, accept for the TLT and GLD, finished lower on the week. This morning (Friday), at one point, ALL those markets were lower, as we were in one of those situations I've seen in the past where every thing goes one way, which is almost impossible until you see it, like the dollar down, AND, gold and oil down, interest rates down, AND, TLT down, etc etc etc, really fun stuff when it happens. 
You won't have to sit through my ragging on the "Breath Charts" any more, the next mention of breath will be if we start getting positive divergences or new buy signals, suffice it to say that the "BREATH" is REALLY bad, but that's to be expected on a 500 point DOWN day in the DOW.............


There's a little divergence in the RS between the four major indexes, the DOW has broken well below it's December low and the SPY is sitting almost EXACTLY on it, while both the NasDOGS and little guys, QQQ and IWM, are still above that low. In the OLD days, before MASSIVE FED manipulations, I would say the odd's favor the leader's playing catch up to the big cap laggards, but I can't say that any more, who knows how bad the FED will panic, and how much printed paper money they throw at the stock markets, AND, if this continues into the FOMC meeting next month there will be NO rate hike, AND, the FED will be effectively boxed in as they won't be able to lower rates, unless they pull a Swiss or Swede thing and go to NEGATIVE rates.
Because of the bastards coming in five minutes before the open and lowering rates in 2008 and screwing me out of all my over night gains (that was with put positions), I DO NOT short any more, instead, I just sit it out and wait for a chance to go long. It's not any fun, or profitable, but it sure saves me a lot of aggravation, yelling and screaming, and mental anguish.
In NORMAL times Asia, SHOULD, sell off HARD on Sunday night, and we, SHOULD, gap DOWN Monday morning, which would, PROBABLY, we a buyable event, but for me I'll wait until a bigger bottom forms.


Even with the huge down day my Market Monitor was a little more positive than Thursday, there were 66 stocks up 4% today vs 19 yesterday and "only" 330 down 4% vs 552 yesterday, that's out of over 2900 stocks. There were some records on that table, the 1819 stocks that were down 4% on the week, the 7 stocks on 52 WK highs, the 38 on 20 day highs, the ZERO SP 500 stocks on a 52 WK high was tied on ONE other day, October 16 last Fall, which was the dead bottom in the SP back then, the 4 stocks on 20 day highs is a record, and for reference there were 16 stocks on 20 day highs on October 16, those 4 were NEM, EIX, HCN and DUK.


Here's the beg wiener's in my 76 markets this week, only 9 and most of an inverse nature, it's amazing to see the FXF and FXE up so much this week, meaning the dollar was DOWN, and our markets not in rally mode, but, that's how Da Boyz on Da Street screw most of us retails, taking away traditional correlations.
Big jump between the last winner, SLV at .41%, and the BEST loser, XLU at MINUS 1.14%, even record housing prices couldn't keep the XHB up this week, which reminds me that I can't believe I heard some one say that RECORD HIGH housing prices were GOOD, it seems to me some one was saying that back before the 08' fiasco.


Here's the big loser's, WOW, some of those udder Worldly thingey's got their asses kicked this week, our major market winner............eeeeeeerrrrrrrr...... loser....... made this page, QQQ down 7.34 stinking percent this week, DIA was next at -5.95%, SPY -5.60%, with the little guys being the big winner, ONLY, down 4.44%, wooooo hoooooo........................


Here's the MASSIVE list of the big winner's in the SP 500 this week, I got tired trying to read through all 15 of them so I gave up...... that 445 stocks that had an RSI of less than 50 on the table above is also a record.


Here's the top 20 loser's for the week, I have no comment, although it does surprise me to see NFLX at the top of the list, especially when you look at that YTD gain of 113.03%.
I just HAVE to comment on DE, as I've been ragging on it all stinking year, I mean, I, LOVE, the company, no doubt, but it just kills me that Da Street acts like it was just totally taken by surprise by the horrible earnings report, but Ya Know, their ANAL-ysts actually had estimates that were LOWER than where the EPS came in, I mean, the f##king stock was UP 12.7% YOY going into this earnings report when they KNEW that earnings were going to be about 38% LOWER than last year and revenues 20% LOWER, just fricking STUPID............. I ahve NO explanation for this kind of bull shit, just incredible. I watch the weekly farm report every Saturday morning and I've been saying for months that Farmer's that were interviewed were saying they may not buy new equipment for YEARS because of the shitty grain prices, I mean, WAD EVER,,, and speaking of the shitty grain prices, when is that dumb ass Congress going to get off their ass and sue Kellogg's and General Mills for their duopoly in the breakfast cereal markets, their prices have not dropped at all, f$$king Washington just kills my ass.................................

Thursday, August 20, 2015

552 stocks of the 2900+ in my Market Monitor were down 4% today, that's the second highest in my records, the highest was Feb. 3, 2014, which was the low for the entire year in 2014.


That might be of interest to you "contrarian" players, however, "A", problem, though, is that the number of stocks that are down 4% on a WEEKLY basis has been exceeded numerous times, as have the 52 WK highs and lows, so I can't say this is the most extremely over sold that we've been.

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Possible Trade "Ideas" for Tuesday 8/18/2015

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Signals Click Here!

RXN- LONG IDEA
FSLR- LONG IDEA
CX- SHORT IDEA

Possible Trade "Ideas" for  week of 8/17/2015
HW- LONG IDEA
The "general" trading plan is to take them over the high of the prior bar with a stop under the low of that bar, but, of course, you should have your OWN trading plan.

LULU- LONG IDEA

KND- LONG IDEA

PAYX- LONG IDEA

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. Please consult your investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

On Tuesday the $SPX traded DOWN 1.5% and then finished HIGHER on the day, the last time it did that was October 4, 2011, and "some body" on Twitter was nice enough to point out that the SPX gained 11.5% over the next MONTH, now, I would NEVER say NEVER to such a gain, BUTT......................


I would be EXTREMELY hard pressed to say the two BLUE boxes are the same set up, the RED arrow is where it last made a move like that in 2011, we were just coming off of a 21.6% pull back from the prior five months, AND, we were 31.8% off of the ALL TIME HIGHS.........
I find it a little hard to compare to NOW when we are coming off a 2%...........aaaaahhhhhhh......."PULL BACK"..... AND.......... we are 2% off the ATH's.............
SIGH, it would certainly not surprise me in the least to see an 11% move to new ATH's, the FED is capable of any thing, but I'm tell'in Ya, I'm sure getting tired of Jesse Felder's (@jessefelder) pull back beard, so I'm hoping the "move" is to the down side, good luck to you................

Friday, August 14, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/14/2015

{double click the charts for bigger view)
Here's 12 rather important markets with a 20 and 50 SMA on them, a little change this week as only 4 are now on a buy signal, or a Silver Cross, $COMPQ, SPY, $USD, and TLT. I heard a LOT being made about the "DEATH CROSS" in the $INDU this week, PLEASE, some one will have to show it to me:


Hahahahahaha, the DIA does NOT have a "DEATH CROSS", not even close in fact, some one will REALLY have to explain THAT one to me, sigh, how the $INDU has one and this one doesn't.
On the NYSE this week 96 stocks closed with PSAR buy signals and 46 on sell vs 102 and 148 last week, much better, 60 closed at 52 wk highs and 94 at lows vs 33 and 161 last week, pretty disconcerting to see so many more LOWS than HIGHS on the UP day Friday, probably not to good, and 117 on CCI buy signals and 61 on sell vs 88 and 284 last week, another big improvement.


The Bullish Percent of the major indexes STILL don't look at all GOOD...........


And here's a Point and Figure chart of the SPX that still shows it on a CONFIRMED SELL SIGNAL from July 10, in the red box, as is ALL the major indexes.


The $NYAD whip sawed into a buy signal, as did the $NYSI, but it hasn't even made it back up to the little high in late July, much less the major high we made in July, the $NYA at the top got over the late July high but has closed back below it, personally, I ALWAYS want to see the $NYAD's LEADING the markets. As shown we do have a POSITIVE divergence on the MACD, which certainly can't hurt any thing.


Here's the beg wieners in my 76 markets this week, it was all the major LAGGING commodity markets this week, as we get a little mean reversion I guess, over sold bounces?? XLU was a little surprise sitting in 6th spot, the SPY was the only major on the first page, up .69% on the week, although I consider RSP more major than it and it was up .99%, DIA was next at .62%, then IWM at .38%, with the NasDOGS bringing up the rear at .18%.  5 closed at 20 day highs
vs 6 last week, 7 closed at 52 wk lows vs 14 the prior week, and 29 closed on a Silver Cross vs 29 the prior week.


Here's the big loser's for the week, ERY is going off the list, EWM showed up as the wiener again this week, this shows oil down 3.91% this week if you were in USO, despite all the yelling and screaming about China FXI is NOT on that list and was only down .25% on the week, hardly worth Bubblevision getting every one all upset if you ask me.


Here's the big winner's in the SP 500 this week, let's see, PCP is a Buffett thingey, SYY is a Peltz thingey, which is good because it missed earnings, WHICH, I might add, I thought was hill-fricking-larious, as they said US food "related" costs hurt their earnings?????? You mean the, LOWER, costs, RIGHT???? HURT EARNINGS??? WHILE YOU KEEP CHARGING US THE SAME INFLATED FRICKING PRICES EVEN THOUGH BASE COSTS TO YOU ARE LOWER??????????????????????? Fricking roach's............


Here's the loser's for the week, I honestly don't remember hearing any one complain about LOWER costs hurting their margins out of this bunch, a lot of them have been on this list for awhile, like FCX, which CAN complain about lower costs, as they are the ones that provide the base cost to those udder outfits.
21 stocks closed at 52 wk highs and 13 at lows vs 4 and 20 last week, 63 at 20 day highs and 19 at lows vs 31 and 70, 245 on a Silver Cross vs 249 last week, 4 closed with an RSI 14 over 80, SYY, ED, PSA and K, and one with an RSI under 20, VIAB, 269 had an RSI over 50, here, let me list them................... NOT! 230 were under 50, last week was 227 and 270, so a reversal on that one.


On a side note I started a new LONG term position in PG over a week ago, it's sitting on prior support from 2014 and 2013, it's a dividend aristocrat and all that crap, ANY WHO, I just about hit the fricking floor when I saw this:

Why P&Gs CEO Is Focused on Value Creation over Growth

Hahahahahahahaha, if you don't know why I'm laughing... well, I'll tell you, talk about a fricking COP OUT!!!!!! Well, we can't GROW, so we'll just concentrate on VALUE................. OK WARREN!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hah hah hah, I'm still laughing over that one, I wonder how many heads in the ANAL-yst community snapped around when he made THAT statement...............

ANYWAY, I Yam an IDIOT, so I'm still with it.............. at least I know EXACTLY where my stop is, it, COULD, be under that RED line, but it's actually in trying to keep the CEO's mouth SHUT!



Friday, August 07, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR 8/7/2015


Here's 12 rather important markets with a 20 and 50 SMA on them, a little change this week as half are now on a buy signal, or a Silver Cross, $COMPQ, SPY, $TRAN, $USD, TLT, and VTI.
On the NYSE this week 102 stocks closed with PSAR buy signals and 148 on sell vs 296 and 39 last week, a BIG degradation in breath, 33 closed at 52 wk highs and 161 at lows vs 131 and 71 last week, and 88 on CCI buy signals and 284 on sell vs 215 and 76 last week, all bad numbers, which, in this "COSTANZA" market, probably means we go to Da stinking MOOOOOON next week.



The $NYAD's at the top are on a sell signal as is the $NYSI, but both are so close that probably one decent up day and we get buy signals.

The Bullish Percent of the major indexes look just AWFUL!

And here's a Point and Figure chart of the SPX that shows it on a CONFIRMED SELL SIGNAL, in the red box, as is ALL the major indexes.


Here's the beg wieners in my 77 markets this week, the first two are inverse funds, nobody cares about Nat gas, so the leading market was...............BONDS, with TLT up 1.70% on the week, PLUS, they pay, WHAT, 18% a year, like they did in 1980 when the greatest bull market in history started??? OH, that's right, that stinking FED has them down at 2.76% as they NOW think the way to start a 20 year bull market is to starve every one for yield, sigh, wad ever! The last market on that list, EWU, was dead flat so I guess that means 57 of the 77 markets were down on the week, 3 closed at a 20 day high, TLT, XLU and UUP, none of which I guess you would consider to be "good" indicators, 9 closed at highs last week, 14 closed at 52 wk lows vs 4 the prior week, and 29 closed on a Silver Cross vs 18 the prior week, it went up because some of them are inverse funds.


Here's the big loser's for the week, I had to look EWM up, hahaha, its Malaysia, down 7.08% on the week as evidently their Prime Minister got caught in some sort of housing market scandal thing, that would be like our FED getting caught allowing the banks that own them to sucker in ignorant subprime buyers into buying houses they couldn't afford...........ohh, wait, they already did get caught doing that..... we ALL know whats wrong with Brazil, EWA was 9th worse, my favorite Country ETF it is, but I still won't touch it, their housing market is waiting for the shit to hit the financial fan like ours did in 08'.
Our major loser is on that list, IWM down 2.46% on the week, the leader was the SPY, "only" down 1.20%, then the NasDOGS, QQQ down 1.46%, then the BIG Dogs, DIA down 1.66%.


Here's the beg wieners in the SP 500 for the week, definitely NOT for the BTFD crowd, as there weren't any...... dips that is. I thought FSLR had gapped up with the other solar stocks on the Obama plan to finish killing off millions of coal related jobs so he could create hundreds of green jobs, but it was actually on earnings, hhhhmmmm, how bout that...... PCLN looked pretty impressive at 5.93% until I realized that they were up 8.39% on their earnings day.


And here's the loser's for the week, I still SWEAR that I thought GMCR was supposed to have been brought by KO for like $110 or some thing like that, I guess it fell through???..... DIS had a little surprise in store for inwestors, I was kind of surprised the BTFD'er's had not piled in by the end of the week, oh well, just a matter of time.........

Saturday, August 01, 2015

WEEKLY AND MONTHLY WRAP UP FOR 7/31/2015

All I can say is HOP TO IT!!!


In 12 major markets only 3 are on a Silver Cross, 20 SMA above the 50 SMA, $COMPQ, $USD and TLT, the rest remain on an MA sell signal. 


The only breath indicator on this Candleglance group that's on a buy, cross up through the 10 sma, is the $NYAD, which is the MAIN group, but I was really surprised at the $NAAD, I thought for sure they were on a buy. 


The Bullish Percent indexes continue to look like dog poop, I mean, not only do they LOOK like Dog, but they are all on "Bear Confirmed" on the Point and Figure charts, as demostrated by the 
$BPCOMPQ below:



Here's the weekly winner's in my 77 markets, IYT was the big winner, up 4.09%, and is also one of the few in "Bull Correction" mode on a Point and Figure chart, XLU and XHB were big winners as the 10 year yield moved down 2.91% this week, as inwestors fled into the safety of bonds, although TLT was only up .94% on the week. Our first major market shows up on the second page, SPY up 1.21%, the IWM 1.06%, QQQ .77%, with the DIA being the dogs for the week, up .68%.
9 markets finished the week on a 20 day high with 4 on a low vs 3 and 23 last week, 18 finished with a Silver Cross vss 13 last week, 296 NYSE stocks finished with a PSAR buy and 39 on a sell vs 47 and 360 last week, so a big improvement there, 131 finished on 52 wk highs and 71 on lows vs 41 and 371, so another huge improvement, also notable was that even though all three major markets finished lower on Friday my Market Monitor, with 3029 stocks in it, closed with 145 stocks up 4% on the day vs 126 on Thursday, and 99 4% lower on the day vs 132 Thursday, so a little divergence of interest there.


China lost another 3% this week in FXI, commodities were laid out in a line with USO, DBC, UNG and GDX fourth through seventh, Ya know of course that commodity weakness is indicative of the massive demand needed for the WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC BOOM...........................


Here's the monthly winner's in my 77 markets, TLT and XLU kicked ass, up 5.98 and 5.47%, the NasDOGS were our best major, QQQ up 3.73%, ALL of it, of course, GOOG and AMZN................


Not much surprise for the monthly loser's, all commoity based, also FXI, EWZ, EEM, XLB, etc etc.


Just for your edification here's the weekly beg wiener's in the SP 500, I have no ideas on these as I tend to specialize in the loser's..........


Which are these, I have to admit there is one stock on there I don't have, QRVO, as I have no fricking idea what it is....................... I have to also admit that PG is looking a little "interesting", another two or three points LOWER that is!


Here's the monthly winner's in the SP 500, and I'm doing a double here as I ALSO have no fricking idea what TE is................ it's unbelieveable seeing those MEGA CAP tech stocks in the top six for the month, and the $NDX bullish percent is on a SELL, hhahahahahahahahaha, wooo weeee, what a, aaaaaahhhhh, bifurcated, market........................


And there's the monthly loser's, not these, I know ALL about THEM, hahahahaha, Ya Know, I, LOVE, FCX, NEM and JOY, you can throw COP and RIG in there to, BUTT, there's no way I can touch them, I mean, every time I get itchy I look at another out fit I USED to LOVE, BTU, and I tend to get a little, aaaaaaaahhhhhhh, cautious................... you just never know how far those Aholes on Da Street will take them down before they figure they've screwed enough retails!

The Fed Can't Stop the Commodity Bear Market 

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