Thursday, April 02, 2015


Above is a weekly chart of the SPY, it goes back to the start of the current bull market from October of 2011 when the world and the markets were falling apart until the FED promised QE INFINITY, WOOOO HOOOOO! Free money does wonders for stock markets and financial engineering, but, wad ever, I mention the weekly because the SPY has been on a bollinger squeeze for the last five weeks, in the red box on the right side. As I've stated before, BBSqueeze's do NOT tell you which way the market is going to go, only that a BIG MOVE is "expected" to happen as the markets are consolidating and building up pressure as the bollinger bands "squeeze" together, and as you can see on the price action we have basically gone sideways since last Thanksgiving. 
We are almost exactly in the middle of the bollinger's and the initial "move" is going to take us one way or da udder to the bollinger at which point we will start to "walk" the BB either up or down. WoodiesCCI is saying the move will be DOWN, as it's red, and the signal bars on the BBSqueeze are green but they are DARK green which is falling momentum.
We may follow the pattern in the red box at the far left in April-May of 2011, where momentum went flat through earnings season and then triggered short and the markets fell all the way into October of that year. In the other "majors" the DIA are exactly like the SPY, neither the IWM nor QQQ are on a squeeze, Mr. "Woodie" says sell the Q's and buy the IWM, but the signal on IWM has gone UP/DOWN back and forth for the last six weeks, currently on a buy. 
Any thing is possible I guess, I may try an option straddle in anticipation of the coming "move". 

The NYAD's, in the bottom chart, are actually in their best configuration as they are LEADING the markets higher, as they've broken over the February and March highs while the $NYA has not, the $NYSI is still struggling though and is dead flat, awaiting a signal one way or the other.

Putin won big time this week, leading my 76 markets higher as the RSX gained 9.07% as WTIC gained 2.31% this week, which also pulled up emerging markets like VWO and EEM and EWZ, although I have NO idea why FXI was number two at 7.51%, I thought they were consumers rather than producers. The only domestic market that is on the first page is XHB, up 3.67% on the week, as new, existing and pending home sales were all up, but that was on a percentage basis, like we sold one house in the country last month and we sold two this month so sales were up 100%, hahahahahahaha............
This article on the Case-Shiller index is really some thing, case-shiller-home-prices ,the head of the outfit talks about how wonderful the price increases are, and then turns around and says "Home prices are rising TWICE as fast as wages", meaning the FED is so far behind the curve on inflation, relying on the lies out of the CPI, that they can't even see the front end of it, and then he follows that up with "Any time before 2008 that housing starts were as low as the current rate of one million, the economy was in a recession".......................... can you fricking believe that??????????????
Another article talks about that Bay area janitor with five kids that was making $50K in 2007 and brought the average home at $550K is NOW making $40K and buying the average house at $575K, IF HE'S LUCKY, as the average in San Francisco is over $1,000,000.............
Wad ever, I could go on for hours, lets get to the stats, IWM led the majors, up 1.90% on the week, followed by the SPY, DIA, and then the Nas-DOGS bringing up the rear, only up .02% for the week, 17 markets closed with a 20 day high vs 2 last week, 2 on a 20 day low vs 1, they were IYT and EGPT, which also brings up that IYT has NOT confirmed the DOW theory of making new highs with the DIA, 31 markets closed on a golden cross, 20 SMA above 50 SMA, vs 38 last week, and here's a look at 12 markets and the 20/50 SMA's:

The $INDU, $NYA and $SPX closed right on the DEATH CROSS, while the $RUT is not even remotely close to a cross, while the 20 SMA on the $COMP is sloping down, the Q's look the same as the $COMP. 
116 NYSE stocks closed on a PSAR buy signal vs 45 last week, 45 on a sell signal vs 119 last week, so they almost exactly reversed positions, 133 closed on new highs vs 51 and 10 on new lows vs 24 last week, so we closed strong. 

There were only 15 loser's this week, 3 were inverse funds, USO was the BIG loser, down 3.57%, the Aussies got hit for some reason, EWA down 2.67%, I guess because of iron/ore prices or some thing, sliver and gold were down, JNK and XME were dead flat.

Here's the BEG WIENERS in the S and P 500 this week, I'm looking at LEN in 10th, they are up because of the home number bull shit I talked about above, but I was looking at the news on them and they reported on the 19th, it was a good report but one of the scribes said that in the report "Houston had a problem", and I thought it was hilarious as I just watched Tom Hanks "Apollo Thirteen" movie again a few days ago...............
Ya know, in my "PERSONAL" opinion, the charts on LEN and XHB look absolutely FAAAAAAAAAANNNNN..............tastic, if you are into that kind of buy high and hope to sell to some sucker at higher prices kind of stuff...........
20 stocks finished at 52 wk highs vs 6 last week, and 3 at lows vs 4, 47 finished at 20 day highs vs 11 last week, and 22 at lows vs 32, 277 finished with a golden cross vs 314 last week, 2 had an RSI 14 above 80, HSP and KSS, and again we had ZERO with an RSI under 20, that ZERO dates back to January 30, wonderful opportunities for bottom fishers, 274 finished with an RSI above 50 vs 225 last week, and 228 were under 50 vs 277.

And here's the big loser's on the week, I thought Apple stock was AAPL, but I guess they must have spun off the MAC............... I'm REALLY surprised to see GOOG and CELG and AMGN and URBN on the list, but like I've said before until we get about a 60% correction I won't be interested in doing my slimy bottom fishing thing............... ok, maybe, aaaaaahhhhhh, 20%????? 10%??????............. ANY THING????????


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