Saturday, April 18, 2015

Some one posted a chart like this on Twitter with the caption "Here we go again", IE, we are testing the bottom trend line going back to last October, well, really:

I count SIX previous trend lines going back to "OCTOBER", that were ALL busted, and haven't meant a damn thing. I completely understand the point of trend lines, they are a nice trigger/stop points for trading, but you can't just keep moving it out and using the worn out "October" claim, wad ever, I'm sorry I even mentioned it, after all, they are useful. 

PERSONALLY, I prefer lateral support/resistance lines, like the "Pristine Method", Greg Capra type stuff, etc, it's all up to the individual. One thing that's OBVIOUSLY clear to any one, even me, is we've made a series of HIGHER LOWS and LOWER HIGHS since the low and high in February, or, an OBVIOUS triangle since the February high and the March low, which we've been talking about for a couple of weeks now, and some thing that we have still NOT broken, and when we DO break it, well, the odds are that we get a pretty big move in one direction or Da Udder. Just as more than likely, the FIRST move will, "PROBABLY", be a FAKE OUT move, like that February low at 1980 was, as the "Market" rarely makes things very easy. 

The option makers are pricing the July SPY 208 calls at $5.50 and the 208 puts at $6.00, you, "COULD", buy the straddle and then TRY and sell weeklies against it, the weekly ATR is $5, you could go $3 OTM and sell the April 24 211 calls for maybe .23 cents and the 205 puts for .50 cents, you got 13 weeks until expiration so you pick up $2.99 on the calls and $6.50 on the puts, in, "THEORY", or, be brave, and wait and see if a BIG move cover's the spread.
Wad ever, it's just a thought, there's probably a million, and ONE, ways to do this stuff. 


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