Thursday, April 30, 2015




The $NYAD, $NYMO and $NYSI all closed on SELL SIGNALS today, I have no opinion on the next move in the markets, I'm just reporting the facts as given to me, personally it's a caution flag. The $NYAD's have NO divergence in them like in 2000 and 2007, the $NYSI and $NYMO have made a lower high while the market made it's new highs.
One REALLY bad thing for the markets is this:


The $TRIN closed at eighty stinking eight, .88, I mean, there was absolutely NO FEAR in the markets on this big down day, in, NORMAL, times, this would not be good, but these are not normal times and who knows what that stinking FED will do.
One "possibly" GOOD thing is this:

My market monitor has not registered such lousy DOWN numbers as we've had the last couple of days since March 26th, the red arrow on the top chart, which was the, quote, "BOTTOM", in that pull back.
My personal opinion is we need MORE pull back, especially with the sentiment so "buy the dippish" type stuff.
Good luck to you.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

TRADE "IDEAS" FOR TUESDAY APRIL 28, 2015

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Signals Click Here!

RMBS- LONG IDEA
CFX- LONG IDEA
NDAQ- SHORT IDEA
SON- SHORT IDEA
TRADE "IDEAS" FOR WEEK OF 4/27/2015
AER- LONG IDEA

FOSL- LONG IDEA

COL- LONG IDEA

AXP- SHORT IDEA


STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. Please consult your investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!


Saturday, April 25, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP FOR APRIL 24, 2015

FAMOUS TRADING RULES:

I NEVER TRADE ANY THING I WOULDN'T FEEL COMFORTABLE HOLDING FOR 15 YEARS.........................................
said the trader that paid $120.50 for the QQQ in 2000...................


I'm showing the $COMP this week mainly to congratulate those of you who have held on for 15 years, you deserve to yell and scream and celebrate the new ATH's with Bubblevision. This had a very clear move higher at the red line on the left, and if we project an "EQUAL MOVE" scenario on it we get a "target" price of "POSSIBLY" $5430, around that area, maybe........
ANYWAY, Twitter was yelling and screaming about the "DIVERGENCES" in the AD's, IE, the same thing was happening as what happened in 2000 and 2007 where we make new highs but the AD's do not, well, here's what I see:


I use the "CUMULATIVE" AD's, always have and always will, and, NO, they made a new ATH with the index, although it is kind of bad in that we went down on the new ATH on Friday. We won't have a problem until we make ATH's and the AD's do NOT, then, yea, it might be bad..............
Maybe the screamers are looking at this:


And yes, the divergence is true on the NON cumulative $NAAD's, we made the high's on Tuesday at the blue arrow on the top chart and have been lower ever since.
I don't use this kind of "noisy" data, but it is wad it is, so use it as you will.


The SPY is interesting, it DIDN'T close at ATH's, those were back at the red arrow at the start of March, we only missed by a few cents, we also have an "EQUAL MOVE" scenario on it that "COULD" point to $224, BUTT, it needs to go NOW, that is, start walking up the bollinger bands higher right away, as it put on a Hanging Man doji candle Friday and if we open lower Monday and leave it behind it would be the infamous Abandoned Baby or Island reversal candle, just like last week, which of course didn't work.


EWZ led my 76 markets higher this week, up 7.65%, I "THINK" because PBR made news about the mess it's been, wad ever, our best major was right there in fourth place, QQQ up 4.27%, all because of one stock of course, well, actually maybe three, next week will be the same thing as AAPL reports on the 27th, China and Russia continue to fly, both up over 3%, even the IYT showed up, up 2.71%, although it is still not close to confirming the highs in the DIA made on March 2, so the "DOW Theory" worriers are still, ahhhhhhh, worrying. SPY was second in our majors, up 1.78%, DIA 1.46%, and the "RISK ON" little guys came in last, IWM up 1.15%.


There was 18 loser's, all the inverse funds with QID getting slaughtered, India was down big, EPI down 5.21%, UNG, SLV and GLD came in next with GDX following a few spots down, and bonds were down, TLT down 1.81%. Oil was down, USO down .86%, which is strange because of the oil countries flying higher, but I don't try to explain "strange" in the market these days.
24 markets finished at a 20 day high this week vs 1 last week, 5 were at 20 day lows vs 3, and 49 finished with a golden cross, 20 SMA above 50 SMA, vs 48 last week, 147 NYSE stocks closed on a PSAR buy signal vs 18 last week, big jump there, 86 closed on a sell signal vs 362 last week, 160 closed on new highs vs 34 last week, and 17 on new lows vs 7.


AMZN was the beeeg wiener in the S and P 500 this week, up 18.52%, this off of a LOSS of 12 cents vs a PROFIT of 23 cents last year and 45 cents last quarter, I think revenue's increased, but I fail to see how it's GOOD when increasing revenue leads to losses, but, wad ever, it just gives the perma bears some thing to yell and scream about in comparing the new highs to 2000, and by the way, AMZN gets it in the "Costanza" market, where BAD is really GOOD. MSFT, JNPR, SBUX, GOOG all joined the 2000 brigade in leading the Nas-DOGS higher this week, not to mention the S and P.
Speaking of the S and P only 18 closed at 52 wk highs vs 2 last week, I thought by the strength of the Bubblevision scream-O-meter the number would be much higher, only one closed at a new low, XRX, which I wouldn't even remotely consider looking at until they get rid of that stinking CEO, in fact, I don't even remember what XRX does, what a piece of crap. 69 stocks closed at 20 day highs vs 9 last week, 26 at lows vs 102, 259 on a golden cross vs 282, a little strange on that one, 2 closed with an RSI 14 above 80 vs 1 last week, MAT and AMZN, ZERO closed with an RSI below 20, for the umpteenth week in a row, 284 closed with an RSI above 50 vs 186 last week, 218 were under 50 vs 316.


Here's the loser's in the S and P, it sure seems to me that the oil stocks over reacted to the little drop in USO this week, but what do I know, semi's were not looking good, which kind of flys in the face of ATH's in the Nas-DOGS, but, again, what do I know, a couple of surprises, IMHO, are HOG and HSY, with MMM just missing this list, all off of earnings misses, CMG joined that consumer bunch.


I have to laugh when I write this crap because I actually had another good week, hahahahaha, I'd hate to think how bad my attitude would be off of a BAD week.
I had AKS in options and had sold out on that big bar outside the bollingers from eight days ago, got screwed on the fake out five days ago, then reloaded again on Thursday and got out on the big pump on Friday, I may try this again some time.


I only mentioned AKS because I am OUT of VALE, which I will look to get back into again on a PULL BACK like AKS had, maybe all the way back to $6, but of course I risk it just continuing to blow up, but I have to sell with the thing running up into resistance at $8 and being so far above the upper bollingers for three days.
I also mention these two because they make me DISGUSTED with myself, I took them off of ZERO patterns, sigh, although AKS had a little cup and handle I bet on, I took VALE based on a huge June $7 call buy made by some big player, I figured if it was good enough for him it was good enough for me, DOUBLE SIGH, I just don't do stuff like that, but I've been doing it lately, TRIPLE SIGH!!
Wad ever, let me show you my LATEST wonderful little buy:


Hahahahahahahahaha............... wonderful, "PATTERN", isn't it!!!
I bought the June 5's, sigh, to limit my risk of course, the actual "PATTERN" is that ACI was up 4%............................. I mean, BTU is such a better company than ACI it just HAS to go higher, right??................................ RIGHT?????
It can't possible go any lower.............right??.......................RIGHT????

I've said this a million times, and I'll say it a million more times, that is, you risk ONE "R" to make THREE "R", with "R" being your INITIAL stop, and luckily I don't have to write it out, Mark Dow already did:




The new NORMAL in the NEW MARKET:
YOU RIDE THE ELEVATOR UP AND TAKE THE STAIRS DOWN!!!!!!

Monday, April 20, 2015

TRADE "IDEAS" FOR WEEK OF APRIL 20, 2015

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

IMAX- LONG IDEA

VGR- LONG IDEA

AER-LONG IDEA

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. Please consult your investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!


Saturday, April 18, 2015


Some one posted a chart like this on Twitter with the caption "Here we go again", IE, we are testing the bottom trend line going back to last October, well, really:

I count SIX previous trend lines going back to "OCTOBER", that were ALL busted, and haven't meant a damn thing. I completely understand the point of trend lines, they are a nice trigger/stop points for trading, but you can't just keep moving it out and using the worn out "October" claim, wad ever, I'm sorry I even mentioned it, after all, they are useful. 


PERSONALLY, I prefer lateral support/resistance lines, like the "Pristine Method", Greg Capra type stuff, etc, it's all up to the individual. One thing that's OBVIOUSLY clear to any one, even me, is we've made a series of HIGHER LOWS and LOWER HIGHS since the low and high in February, or, an OBVIOUS triangle since the February high and the March low, which we've been talking about for a couple of weeks now, and some thing that we have still NOT broken, and when we DO break it, well, the odds are that we get a pretty big move in one direction or Da Udder. Just as more than likely, the FIRST move will, "PROBABLY", be a FAKE OUT move, like that February low at 1980 was, as the "Market" rarely makes things very easy. 

The option makers are pricing the July SPY 208 calls at $5.50 and the 208 puts at $6.00, you, "COULD", buy the straddle and then TRY and sell weeklies against it, the weekly ATR is $5, you could go $3 OTM and sell the April 24 211 calls for maybe .23 cents and the 205 puts for .50 cents, you got 13 weeks until expiration so you pick up $2.99 on the calls and $6.50 on the puts, in, "THEORY", or, be brave, and wait and see if a BIG move cover's the spread.
Wad ever, it's just a thought, there's probably a million, and ONE, ways to do this stuff. 

Friday, April 17, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP


Wow, what a bad day, so bad that the main men in the breath indicator family, the NYAD's, triggered a sell signal. This, of course, could be another whip saw, as the BIG picture is just fine, as it made new all time highs along with the $NYA, so we have no nasty divergences like we had at the ATH's back in October of 07'.


Those ATH's were just two narrow range days on the chart, which with the big down day leaves an Abandoned Baby, Island Reversal, or wad ever you want to call it, it did hold the Automatic trend line that shows up just under the close today. Besides, when the Chairlady gets a look at this over the weekend she will undoubtedly panic and pump a few trillion bucks into GS and JPM and the rest of Da Boyz on Da Street with orders to buy the shit out of the futures on Sunday night, maybe even with orders to buy the Chinese markets, with MARGIN, hahahahahahahahaha................


These are the big wiener's in my 76 markets I kept track of this week, USO and UNG won with gains of 7.77 and 5%, not surprisingly our best sector was DBC and OIH, two oil producing countries were right there as well, EWC and RSX up 2.69 and 2.66%, our best major market showed up on the first page this week, TLT up 1.41%, 1 market closed at a 20 day high, BND, vs 13 last week, 3 closed at 20 day lows, two were IYR and XHB, which is weird, as the 30 year went down this week to close at 2.505%, EWG was the other one that closed on a low because Chinese traders were using to much margin, by the way their ten year bond is yielding some thing like .046%, or some thing like that, I think that's more likely the problem, 3 closed at a low last week as well, 48 finished with a golden cross, 20 SMA above 50 SMA, vs 39 last week....


Here's the loser's for the week, which include all of our stock markets, EWG was the winner, down 3.80%, on a side note I know a big trading outfit that's been around a long time, DTI, whose whole thesis in trading futures is that the DAX leads the S and P 500, so I wonder what they think these days. QQQ, despite NFLX, was the "winner" in our markets, down 1.61%, then DIA at minus 1.35%, SPY was down exactly 1%, then our big gainer for the week was IWM, ONLY, down .95%.


In the spirit of Alcoa and the rest of the Costanza markets, NFLX missed earnings estimates by almost 50%, were 22% LOWER than last year, and ZACK's said their earnings will fall by almost 30% YOY in this quarter, so, NATURALLY, they were the unchallenged winner's in the S and P 500 this week, up 25.73%, beating all those dumb ass stocks that may have made the mistake of putting out GOOD earnings. Of course, their subscriber growth was huge, and their margins increased, but being ME, I fail to see how adding subscribers that leads to LOWER earnings can be a good thing down the road, but, HEY, who cares about earnings, as the social media stocks can attest to. On a side note I really would like to meet the person who paid $47 for the $475 straddle at the close before earnings, and lived to brag about it the next day. MAT ended up in fourth place, I mention them as they got smart as well, reporting a LOSS on the quarter, as, THEY GET IT, their problem was the loss wasn't BIG enough, or they would have gone up more.
I made money on FCX this week, and I don't have the foggiest idea of how I did that, hahahahahahahahaha...................... I was the proud owner of 19.50 calls that were set to expire this week, I had forgotten about them and was checking some thing else on Thursday and they were in the money by a buck and a half, I thought it was a bad tick, hahaha, I guess they must have missed earnings or had some other bad news to report, RIGHT???!!!


Here's the big loser's this week, or more probably the earnings WINNER'S, he he he, surprising about WYNN as I woulda thunk that all those Chinese millionaires that were created the last few weeks would be blowing it at Steve's place, TWC was down as the justice department is actually thinking there MIGHT be a little anti-trust problem in their merger with Comcast............ YOU THINK!!!! KR and WFM were down because NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO AFFORD FOOD if we have many more days like this.

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

TRADE "IDEAS" FOR WEDNESDAY 4/15/2015

Sign Up for Ivica's Free Trial and Trading 
Signals Click Here!

TILE- LONG IDEA
KRG- LONG IDEA
WSM- SHORT IDEA
LGF- SHORT IDEA



TRADE "IDEAS" FOR WEEK OF 4/13/2015
IFF- LONG IDEA

TXT- LONG IDEA

IBM-LONG IDEA

JNS- LONG IDEA


INVN- SHORT IDEA

STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY, PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AND PRIVACY POLICY AT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEB SITE. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES (JUST LIKE GOLDMAN SACHS, HAH!).
TAKE ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU REALLY LIKE AND UNDERSTAND. ALWAYS ENTER A TRADE WITH A TRADING PLAN. THE PRIMARY FOCUS IS TO FIND SWING TRADES BY USING INTRADAY SETUPS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME SWING TRADES. OUR MAIN FOCUS AS TRADERS IS TO TAKE HIGH PROBABILITY AND R/R TRADES AND CONTROL OUR RISK.
Further, any opinions, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this blog page is provided for educational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or solicitations to trade. Please consult your investment adviser before committing any actual funds to the markets. 

CAUTION IS ADVISED!!


Friday, April 10, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP


Despite all the yelling and screaming all the SPY has done is rally right up into resistance, under the down trend line. Of course, despite all MY yelling and screaming, I have NO DOUBT that we break over that high, into previously unseen heights.


Helping the Bull's cause is the weekly chart, it's still on a "BBSqueeze" and has triggered a buy signal, in the red circle. It has the same down trend line above it as resistance, but once it breaks that it should get up and start walking the upper bollinger band.
Naturally, all the breath indicators are on buys signals.


An unusual even happened in my 76 markets this week, one of them got over bought with an RSI 14 reading above 80, but first I want to show the chart of what I am involved with, VWO:



It was down in sixth place on the winner's list as it, ONLY, went up 4.14% on the week, in back of EWH, OIH, and USO, it's very over bought on the "indicators", which we all know can stay that way and get MORE over bought, one over bought indicator that I thought was pretty amazing was that it closed outside the upper bollinger band for the last six days, being the genius I am I sold half after it was outside them for four days, I thought that was pretty wild until I saw this:


That's this week's leader, FXI, which has closed outside the upper bollinger for the last nine days.
I've seen the pictures of the street vendors acting as brokers and selling stock over there in China, hahahahahahaha, I could say some thing here but I won't...............
Our best major for the week was the Nas-DOGS, QQQ up a measly 2.50%, followed by SPY at 1.74%, then DIA at 1.71%, with the little guys barely finishing higher on the week at .78%, surprising as they have been leading and every one and their brother's uncle expected them to break out.
Only 6 markets closed at a 20 day high vs 17 last week, 3 on a 20 day low vs 2, 39 finished with a golden cross, 20 sma above the 50 sma, vs 31 last week.
One weird note today is that GDX, SLV, GLD, USO, TLT, SPY and the dollar all finished higher, hahahahahahaha................. I wonder how often that happens, the buck also finished higher on the week, 1.97%, putting on a huge bullish engulfing bar, to join USO and GLD, at least SLV and TLT were lower on the week.


Here's the big loser's for the week, IYR, XHB, and TLT were "probably" down due to 10 year yields rising 2.47% on the week, finishing at 1.951%, still EXTREMELY low, IMHO that is.


Here's the big winner's in the S and P 500 this week, kinda funny to see GE on the list, lots of energy names as oil defied the dollar.
27 stocks finished at 52 wk highs vs 20 last week, 0 at 52 wk lows vs 3 last week, 87 at 20 day highs vs 47, 7 at lows vs 22, 286 closed with a golden cross vs 277, 2 finished with an RSI 14 above 80, GE and PRGO, ZERO with an RSI below 20, 347 finished with their RSI above 50 vs 274 last week, 155 with an RSI below 50 vs 228, 121 stocks on the NYSE finished on a PSAR buy signal vs 116 last week, 71 on a PSAR sell vs 45, strange that they were BOTH higher than last week, 141 finished on new highs vs 133 and 14 on new lows vs 10 last week.

Here's the big loser's for the week, one name not on the list is AA as it finished higher by ONE CENT this week, it dropped 3.8% the last two days after it BEAT earnings and reported a PROFIT of 26 cents a share, I told the dumb bastards NOT to do that, that they needed to report another TWO BILLION dollar loss so the stock would go to Da Stinking MOOOOONNNNN, but no, they hada report a fricking profit, sigh, wad ever, there's always next quarter.............

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