Monday, March 23, 2015


You, COULD, say the NYSE has created a year long "DARVAS BOX", you could say that, you could, it actually is fairly close accept for that little dump in September to October, it also meets one of the requirements of Darvas and that is it is working on new all time highs, or just a new 52 week high will work. 
To have true boxes, of course, you have to have consecutive boxes following each other, and on the weekly chart you have no PRIOR box, sooooo......, it's not a Darvas. I was looking at this after our friends at had their Friday update, he's concerned this is a failed double top last September and then it's a failed triple top break out from last month, and with out a huge volume break out on the next test it will be a QUAD-druple failed break out attempt, so "prudent" investor's should be hedging themselves on the next attempt.
PERSONALLY, I think it's going to do the same thing as the IWM and break out, it's the same pattern if you look at them, the NYSE is just lagging in time frames. The problems I see is that if you use an "Equal Move" scenario for the box you only get about a 4.6% move for the break out, even if you use the October low for the "box" you still only come up with 10%, which is a nice gain  for the year, but it just seems like a lot of risk for the huge amount of resistance at that prior top. 

ANYWAY, forget the QUAD tops and all that crap, the, REAL, problem, is:

Prepare-We are at the Verge of Collapse Says Jonathan ...

Hahahahaha, I'm laughing because I started watching that video as a joke after it popped up on my Youtube feed, but I stopped laughing when I saw the NUMBERS he was talking about, pretty amazing stuff. 
I'm just hoping I can get my 10% off the NYA before I go into my cave this fall!!

Sooooo... as I do, EVERY WEEK, I'm watching the weekly Farm Report on RFD TV, , and, THIS IS IT!!!! Really!! HONEST!!
Hahahaha, the "experts" this week are saying that the next two months are historically bullish for crop prices, and with the drop in  the dollar and some potentially bullish planting predictions and foreign yields less than expected, the bottom, MIGHT, be in!
Number one, a ONE DAY drop in the dollar does not a trend make, and the bullish "Predictions" for planting and yields are just that, guesses, but the way I see it, now is as good a time as any.
I should tell you that last week on this very same show the "experts" were saying to use ANY rally to LOCK IN PRICES, so you should be aware that the producers, IE, FARMERS, may cap the rally pretty quickly, ALSO, the DBA is not all crops, it's got hogs and cattle futures in it as well, which may be due for a fall.
Naturally, I will limit my risk by using options, "probably" by buying the July $23 strike calls for .70 cents, and will try to sell some April premium if we get lucky and it goes up enough.

The "leading" index, easily, is the little guys, IWM, having broken out over every thing, with nothing but sunshine and lollipops ahead, they may be a little over bought as the daily has closed outside of the upper bollinger three days in a row and closed outside the bollinger on the weekly chart as well, which is a typical pause area, but, HEY, we may never "pause" again if Grandma Yellin has her way.
Oh, did I say "LEADING" index?? Here's what I REALLY meant:

 They are leading the charge in MULTIPLE EXPANSION, IE, "EXPENSIVE", as shown on the WSJ site, and I remember last year at this time when peeps were yelling and screaming about the UN-FRICKING-believeable P/E of 83.69, and they promptly pulled back 10% into the end of May, but, HEY, I see no problem with that 89.27, Janet can get it MUCH HIGHER, WOOOOO HOOOOOO! By the by, the P/E got down in the 50's when we started to end the decline, so........

The $NYAD's had a pretty quick whip saw back into a buy signal, and are actually LEADING the NYSE higher by just a little bit, a good sign, HOWEVER:

I was REALLY surprised to see the $NYSI and $NYMO still on sell signals, hhhhhmmmmmmm, a little weakness under the surface, but a couple of more up days will give a new buy signal.

 After being the eight worst market in my 76 markets last week Turkey moved to the lead this week, TUR up 10.22% on the week, right ahead of last weeks big WINNER of the LOSER'S list, EWZ, up 7.61%, 4% of that on Friday, so I guess "mean reversion" really is a working phrase. SLV and GDX were both up about 7%, I only mention them because I don't see GLD on the first page, you have to go to the third page, up 2.43% in 50th spot. IYR was our best sector this week, up 5.33%, as the thirty year yield dropped 7% this week after Chairperson Yelling said the economy was just about the worst she had ever seen, while also failing to take any credit for it.
14 markets finished at 20 day highs vs 3 last week, 4 at 20 day lows vs 30 last week, 44 were on a golden cross, 20 SMA above 50 SMA, vs 55 last week, some thing to think about, 278 NYSE stocks finished with a PSAR buy vs 98 last week, and 12 on a PSAR sell vs 63, so some good strength there, there were 365 new 52 wk highs vs 84 last week and 31 new lows vs 117 last week.

There were only 7 markets lower and 4 of those were inverse funds, USO was down 2.2% on the week and XLB 1.22% on the week.
I didn't mention any of the majors because none of them were on that first page above, TLT was the best major, hahahahahaha, up 3.78%, then the NasDOGS were the best stock index, QQQ up 3.03% for the week, IWM 2.76%, SPY 2.23%, with the DIA bringing up the rear at 1.91%, which is "ONLY" about 54% a year, just your typical gains.

Bio-techs ruled the roost in the S and P 500 this week, with BIIB, REGN and AMGN the top three gainers, then we had a couple of those mean reversion thingey's, like RIG and NBR.
The S and P closed with 89 new highs vs 22 last week, and 0, that's ZERO, new lows vs 17, 125 on new 20 day highs vs 33 last week, and 3 new lows vs 105 last week, they were ARG, MOS and PX for any bottom fishers, 348 closed on a golden cross vs 364, another strange reading, 5 closed with an RSI 14 over 80 vs 2 last week, and for the upteenth week in a row we had NO stocks with an RSI under 20, just amazing stuff, I get the feeling when that streak ends it will end with a BANG, 366 closed with an RSI above 50 vs 202 last week, and 136 under 50 vs 300 last week.

Once again I'm a little surprised at the loser's, DD down 7.65%, AA 4.42%, MAT, NFLX, EBAY, BAC and C, etc etc etc.

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