Saturday, February 21, 2015

WEEKLY WRAP UP


Here's more chart porn relating to the "WEAKNESS" we have, the ECRI growth rate came in at -4.3 and in the last 24 years we've always, "ALWAYS", had a major market correction when that happened, hahahahahahahahaha..................HAH! YEA, other than 2010 and 2011 in the red circle, when the markets actually went to da stinking moooooooooonnn! THAT, of course, was the A-hole FED and their QE bull shit.

Wad ever. 

"The Smart Money Is Selling, Not Buying" Goldman Warns With Valuations In The "99th Percentile"



Here's a late entry chart today that goes with the lower charts about the "FALLING EARNINGS" forecasts, Bloomberg says we've never had this type of a fall in forward earnings forecasts with out being in a NBER recession. I drew the vertical red lines on there to show how the markets had already turned DOWN by the time the earnings forecasts turned down, I get the feeling, some how, that the markets are not DISCOUNTING the new earnings, OR, they just don't give a damn because they know that stinking FED will pump as much money into Wall Street as needed to avoid a down turn.


YAAAAAAAAWWWWWNNNNNN- I have NOTHING to "update", all the breath indicators are on solid buy signals, the markets are going up in case you haven't noticed, all those lousy bullish percent indexes rolled higher this week, good stuff, for the bull's that is, so, instead, let's have some fun:

You might say that Larry Levine is just a little, aaaaahhhhhh, JADED, with the markets screaming higher while the economic "DATA" screams LOWER:

"Once upon a time long, long ago, in a mystical land of non-central bank planning, economic data used to matter.  Much like today, economic reports were released nearly every day.  The difference between then and now, however, is that in the mystical land of "semi-free markets" the data mattered.  Today it is of no matter whatsoever.  Now, all that counts is what size will the next global QE be.
Let's take a look at this week's data and search for a trend.
  • Monday - Markets were closed for President's Day.
  • Tuesday - Empire State Mfg Index was worse than expected.  Housing Market Index (HMI) was worse than expected. E-Commerce retail sales report was even worse than expected.
  • Wednesday - MBA Purchase Applications were expected to be bad, but it was actually even worse than that (-9.0% vs. -13.2%). PPI (inflation) data was worse than expected, from the Fed's point of view. Industrial Production data was 50% worse than expected.
  • Thursday - Weekly Jobless Claims were better than expected. The Philly Fed Survey was worse than expected. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) were worse than expected.
  • Friday - Will it really matter?

One wonders why Friday's data will matter, or any economic reports for that matter, because the whole time that nearly every data point was worse than expected, the S&P500 rallied: New highs, new highs...bad data?..."meh" new highs. 
Apparently the oil market was feeling left out.  Oil traders tore a page out of the equity trader playbook when they got today's DOE data: much higher (worse) supply...and it rallied like a scalded cat running up a tree. 

Isn't it awesome?"

Jared Levy wrote this RIDICULOUS article about how the market fell 57% the last time this happened: Warning: Market Fell 57% After It Flashed This Same Signal

For some strange reason he's concerned about some thing called, "VALUATIONS", I mean, like, WHO CARES ABOUT THAT:

The FORWARD P/E on the S and P 500 is a full point HIGHER than it was prior to the 57% crash in 2007, but who gives a shit about that, hahahahahahahahaha.................HAH!! PLUS......3



S and P 500 earnings are now FALLING for the first and second quarters, so let's recap, S and P forward P/E higher than it was before the crash in 2007, and earnings are FALLING, hhhhhhhmmmmmmm, let me think now, oh, yea, THAT SHOULD BE GOOD FOR ANOTHER 30% RALLY WHEN IT DID THE SAME THING IN 2012, WOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!


OK, on to the boring old stat's, Nat gas led my 76 markets this week, up 8.29% as Wall Street sticks it to all you poor people back east having that horrible weather, we've been having record highs here in Utah, which I consider WORSE than your weather, as we need the snow pack for the farms. To show how WONDERFUL every thing is in Europe ITALY led the Country markets this week, hahahahahahahaha, up 4.59%, then Japan, then Spain, it's like trader's just took the worst possible countries they could find an jacked them higher this week (how come WE were UP?:??:). Our best major market showed up on the first page, Nas-DOGS up 2.27%, our best sector was XLV, up 2.47%, IWM was the next major, up 1.30%, then SPY 1.11%, with the Big Dogs bringing up the rear, DIA up .72%, actually, accept for the Q's the rest of the gains weren't that exciting, accept for all the yelling and screaming that is. That reminds me, my market monitor looked kind of strange:


The last three days we had less than 100 our of the 2900+ stocks I keep track of that were up or down over 4%, really poor breath if you ask me, butt, no one's asking of course. At least today the volume actually went HIGHER for a change for new ATH's.
33 of my 76 markets closed on 20 day highs this week vs 34 last week, a little light there, 4 closed on a 20 day low vs 7, 60 closed with a golden cross, 20 DMA above 50 DMA, vs 47 last week, a nice improvement, 66 stocks in the NYSE closed on a PSAR buy this week vs 47 last week and 90 closed on a PSAR sell signal vs 36 last week, not a very good stat, 283 closed at 52 wk highs vs 288 last week and 24 on a 52 wk low vs 21 last week, again, not very good stat's for an UP week.


For some reason I had the idea that the PM's did well this week, I guess I wasn't watching that close as SLV was down 3.78%, GDX 3.31% and GLD 1.76%, USO was down 2.76% as it prepares for the WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC BOOM, TLT got ripped by 2.30 as I guess the coast is all clear now to increase rates, real estate went down, IYR down .99%, Ag continues it's slide with DBA down .90%. 


Here's the big wiener's in the S and P 500 this week, once again it was noticeable that there were no double digit winner's, but at least nobody lost their shirts as PVH led the pack at 4.35%.
84 S and P stocks closed at 52 wk highs this week vs 78 last week, ZERO at 52 wk lows vs 1, 137 at 20 day highs vs 198 last week, 15 at lows vs 37, kind of strange that BOTH of them went down, 321 closed on a golden cross vs 262, so a nice improvement there, 7 had an RSI 14 of OVER 80, for those of you considering a bear call spread they were BA, EFX, HSP, NOC, PETM, VLO and  VMC. Once again us slimy bottom fisher's have ZERO to look at as that's how many closed with an RSI below 20, 393 closed with an RSI above 50 vs 401 last week, and 109 closed with an RSI below 50 vs 101, kind of continuing the momentum loss.


Here's the loser's this week, once again I'm not interested in bottom fishing these with the markets at ATH's, just in case it decides to correct one of these years. 

This is like, totally amazing, "THAILAND ENTER'S THE SPACE RACE":

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