Monday, January 19, 2015


If you like stat's here's some for the first 15 days of January:

Since 1900 there have been 17 January's where the SPX was more than 3% LOWER by January 15th (counting this year as well), of the prior 16 times 11, or 68.85% of them, finished the year at ZERO or LOWER, the average yearly return of those 11 times was MINUS 16.38%, the average return of ALL 16 times was MINUS 4.58%, and fully TEN, or 62.5% of those 16 times, we were involved with some part of a recession, as shown by the red boxes.
For those of you who believe in the YEAR ENDING IN "5" bull shit, there is only one year on the list, 1935, and that ended with a 41.37% gain for the year, at the green star.

Here's some more fun with stat's, this past week we had three days where the NYSE new highs and new lows were more than 4% of all issues, since 1970, or 11,000 trading days, we've had this happen 30, THIRTY, fricking times, and we just had 10% of ALL those times happen in the last week, and 30% of them in the last SIX WEEKS, here are the MEDIAN returns and percentage positive following those previous occurrences:

The most astounding stat is that over the last 365 days the week following the January options expiration has been NEGATIVE 100% of the time, and averaged a lose of MORE than 2.5%....................................

In case you haven't figured it out, that last stat was my idea of a joke, ha.................ha.................ha
The following was a dumb ass RANT, and should be read by NO ONE:

(It should be noted that in NONE of those prior 16 times was the Federal Reserve in the midst of "THE GREAT EXPERIMENT", where they increased their balance sheet to 4.5 TRILLION dollars, got involved with MASSIVE manipulation and criminal conspiracy to control the stock and bond markets, attempted to control the business cycle, and purposely created the greatest wealth gap in the history of this former great country between the rapidly dwindling middle class and the one percent that run the Wall Street banks and brokers that own the Federal Reserve, and, I might add, determine who is going to be part of the one percent that are considered "insiders" in the various listed companies.)

Gap of the day on Friday, BP:

That was my morning notes, this was the result:

Once above $37 it gained .86 cents, the other gapper this week, LLTC, never triggered, which was lucky as it sucked the big one all week after the gap up, shit happens ya know, that's why they invented this wonderful thing called a STOP. BP is, PROBABLY, going to take a shot at that declining 20 SMA.

 The stupid $NYAD's have been whip sawing around and finished the week on a BUY signal, HOWEVER, the $NYSI, $NYMO and $NYHL's all remain on SELL signals, I guess that's called a split market.

With the wild moves in FOREX this week I guess it's only fitting that a currency be the leader in my 76 markets this week, FXF up 18.35% for the week, followed by the fear guage, VXX up 10.91%, the peeps continued to flee into the perceived saftey of PM's as SLV was up 7.48%, GDX 7%, and GLD 6.59%, as I guess they expect BIG THINGS out of Super Mario this month. Our best sector made the first page, XLU up 2.62% as rates continue to DUMP, $TNX gapped DOWN every stinking day this week, with the BIGGEST gap down this morning, before it finally caught a bid and finished at 1.815%, which made TLT our best major market, up 1.62% on the week.

You had to look at the loser's list to find the rest of our majors, our worst was the NasDOGS, QQQ down 1.75%, even after a 1.17% gain today, next was DIA at -1.44%, then RSP and SPY down 1.34 and 1.28%, and the little guys were the BIG wiener's this week, IWM "only" down .74%.  It seems strange to see the PM's LEADING the markets higher, as the INDUSTRIAL metals, XME, was the second worst LOSER this week, down 5.66%, with the home builders, XHB, down 3.66%, AG's were down, DBA -2.74%, banks, XLF -2.11%, OIH down 1.86% EVEN THOUGH USO was actually UP on the week, an eye popping .27%.
8 markets finished at 20 day highs vs 8 last week, 7 at 20 day lows vs 4 last week, and 23 closed the week with a golden cross, 20 SMA above the 50, vs 22 last week, the stat's were just about as flat as you could get. 112 stocks on the NYSE closed with a PSAR buy vs 64 last week, 65 on sells vs 33 last week, 219 on 52 week highs vs 186 and 86 on 52 week lows vs 72 last week.

GME was the big winner in the S and P 500 this week, up 12.64%, with NEM following the PM's, up 7.58%, it's funny to see the XHB one of the down leaders and then see MHK as the fourth best S and P stock on the week, up 6.38%, I don't claim to be able to make any sense out of this.
34 S and P stocks finished at 52 wk highs vs 46 and  13 at 52 wk lows vs 5 last week, 39 at 20 day highs vs 54 and 100 at 20 day lows vs 11 last week, 315 finished with a golden cross vs 325, 4 stocks finished with an RSI 14 over 80, BRB, ESS, HCNand KIM, 2 finished with an RSI of less than 20, FDO and PCP, 211 stocks finished with an UP trending RSI above 50 vs 254 last week and 291 had an RSI UNDER 50 vs 248 last week.

Here's the S and P loser's, people are not buying what ever it is that SNDK makes, down 18.67% to emerge as the "winner", FCX was next at -16.82% as copper was down 4.6% for the week, I had actually thought about FCX in the upper 20's a few weeks ago, hahahahahaha, woooo weeeeee, I'm glad I controlled my slimy bottom fishing tendencies. One slimy fishing trip I couldn't resist was BAC, down 9.42%, but I consider this a MUCH longer term hold than my usual five minutes that I stick around in an "inwestment" thingey, PLUS, they are part of that RANT up there, and if you can't bitch about them, well, join them.

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