Monday, November 10, 2014


I, NEVER, look at the $COMP, no particular reason, I just follow the Q's, but I'm reading the latest Monday Morning Outlook at Schaeffer's, mostly to see what Rocky White had to say, and the guy on the first page is talking about how the Comp is, "slowly INCHING", toward the all time highs above 5,000, and I almost fell out of my chair laughing so hard, as I don't exactly consider a 12.5% gain in ONE MONTH to be, "INCHING", towards ATH's, but, to each his own!
Any who, he gets to talking about how good it is that the current rally doesn't look any thing like the "Parabolic" rally in the five month's leading up to the top in 1999-2000, and I got to looking at it, and I decided that I AGREE, accept that I see the current one as MUCH more parabolic than the old one, hahahahahaha!
2014 is on the left side, above, with 2000 on the right side, I started at the vertical red line where the STOCH turned red when it gets above over bought, or above 80. Now, I started out by screwing around with some trend lines, in blue, by going from the close of the first month of over bought, which was actually December of 98', to the start of the first month of the dumb ass five that he talks about, which is 11 months, trying to compare it to the current trend line that started at over bought and go out 11 months, and the current trend line is steeper than any of the three that I drew in 2000, which I found mildly interesting, but what caught my attention is where the 2000 rally ended, when the STOCH dropped BELOW 80, that was 17 months from where the over bought started, and the CURRENT over bought run is working on month 22, five months longer than the previous "RECORD" run of being "over bought"!! My data on Ninja Charts goes back to 1971, and we had one other 17 month over bought run, in 95' to 96', so the 2000 run was actually a TIE of the previous record.
Now, I've said it a MILLION times, "Indicators" don't mean diddly fricking squat, they're just a little tool, and can stay over bought and over sold for LOOOOOOOONG periods of time, so the current one can probably go MUCH longer, and probably WILL, but I have to admit it sure gets me intrigued when we are almost 30% longer than the previous record, intrigued as to how long this run will last, sigh, the over bought run leading to the 07' top was "only" 14 months long and look how that turned out.
Things that make me go hhhhhmmmmmmmm:


Stocks just stormed back into the lead against bonds

The author was talking about the "TOTAL" return of SPY, or in his case, SPX vs the AGG bond fund, this is why I'm going hhhhhhhhhmmmmm:

So the TLT is up 20.53% YTD vs 11.63%, and the SPY has moved into the LEAD?????????
And that's not even "TOTAL" return, as the TLT yields 2.91% vs 1.82% for the SPY...............hhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmm...........................
Sure makes me wonder what the PEEPS are trying to SELL to Mom and Pop. That headline and article was even quoted by the honorable Jeff Miller, sigh, wad ever.................
By the by, I am, NOT, advocating buying those stinking bonds...........


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