Saturday, October 11, 2014

WEEKLY WRAP UP

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Some "POSSIBLE" trade "IDEAS" for next week:

Long: ABC, APD, CAKE, CRI, INFY, JWN, MYGN, TRV
Short: ANSS, CVD, MDRX, OCR, SCSS, SKX, VRTX, WSM


STOCK TRADING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TO YOUR FINANCIAL HEALTH AND IF YOU TAKE ANY OF THESE TRADE IDEAS AND HAVE NO COMPREHENSIVE TRADING PLAN OR NO STOPS IN PLACE YOU WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LOSE ALL OF YOUR MONEY. I MAY ALSO HAVE A POSITION IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND I MAY BE PUMPING THEM HOPING TO FIND A SUCKER TO TAKE IT OFF MY HANDS AT HIGHER (OR LOWER) PRICES.
CAUTION IS ADVISED!!



The SPY stopped almost exactly on the 200 DMA and the prior pivot low from August, so, this, COULD, be some support, but of course, if the market is going into a hairy scary phase then we will have NO support, just like we had no resistance going up. The weekly chart at the top shows how minor this week looks, although it is the biggest down bar since the rally started in 2011. The indicators don't look very good to me, the MACD has just now started to turn down, the STOCH still has a ways to go before over sold, and the 5 RSI is just now starting to get over sold.
No need to show the $NYAD's, they broke the positive divergence, and the $NYSI is just a fricking mess.


There's no need for a weekly update of course, this is just for the stat's, there was actually more markets HIGHER this week in my 73 I keep track of than last week, 17 to 15 last week, mostly because the metals were positive this week, with SLV, GLD and GDX all higher this week. The grains were higher again this week, DBA up 2.76%, TLT was our leading sector, up 2%, followed by more defense in IYR, XLU, and XLP down at the bottom.


56 of the 73 markets were lower this week, a little surprising to see SMH as the big industry loser, down 9.1%, as they were the most loved during the rally, other than the big loser right in back of them, IYT, the transports down 6.94%, when the big momo's break down they really go. Our major market winner in the loser's bracket was no surprise, IWM down 4.48%, what WAS surprising was the industrial sector, XLI, was down more than IWM, 4.71%, that's not considered a major market but I consider MORE major than the DIA, but that's just me. The DIA was "only" down 2.66%, showing the big difference between the "TRUE" industrial market and the mostly just headline BS DOW. Our second place major winner was the Q's, down 3.8%, followed by the SPY at 3.04%, with the DIA the big winner. Another thing I like to watch is the difference between the EQUAL WEIGHT S and P 500, RSP, and the SPY, RSP was down 3.54%, it consistently goes UP faster than the SPY, and, DOWN, faster, a much better "Inwesting" vehicle, in my opinion, for when the market goes up, it's the same damn S and P 500 companies, they just aren't cap weighted.
We ended with 46 markets on a 20 day LOW, and just 16 markets are in a golden cross position, 20 DMA above the 50 DMA, and surprisingly to me, most of them are major markets, meaning most of the majors haven't even had a negative cross, YET, here they are in case you are interested:



70 stocks in the S and P 500 were up on the week, these are the 20 big winners, actually quite a few big names on there acting like Dot Comer tech stocks. We closed with seven 52 WK highs vs 16 last week, 42 52 WK lows vs 4 last week, only 24 are on a 20 day high, with 274 on a 20 day low, and 239 are on a golden cross.


These were the BIG loser's for the week, I have to tell you that I was shocked, SHOCKED I say, to see MU at the top of the list, that explains a lot of the weakness in SMH.
One NOT on this list, but one I just HAVE to talk about, is the bell wheather that leads off earnings season:


People who have followed me for years know that I just love, I mean, LOVE, this outfit, I mean, I traded this thing through thick and thin, 07', 08', you name it, but they lose TWO BILLION STINKING DOLLARS in the first quarter, they gap down a little, and then go on a MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOn shot, AND THEY LOST ME, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I sold some where in the moon shot, then they started pulling back, and I said, welp, this is IT, "IT'S", going BAC to eight bucks, hahahahahahahaha, geeze, what a stinking roach maaaaannnnn, I could just NOT get myself to chase this dog. I guess there's pro's and con's to knowing an outfit fairly well, it obvious that I was ANCHORED, and I just could not accept the idea that it "SHOULD" be trading at eight bucks.
Wad ever, I'm just showing it because it's hilarious, I mean, it FINALLY makes money after about 1,000 YEARS, they gap it up, and then sell the holey living shit out of it, it does crack me up, hahahahahaha! I honestly don't know where I would get interwested in it again, maybe at $10. Hell, a lot of what they drove it up on was based on the new FORD aluminum engines and bodies, and F has been destroyed so much I'm much more interested in it than Alkie, like I said, wad ever.

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