Sunday, September 21, 2014

Although DJIA and S and P 500 managed to close at new all-time highs this week, celebrations could be short-lived as fund managers tend to clean house as the end of the third quarter approaches. In the table below, it is clear that next week, the week after September options expiration, has consistently been one of the worst of the year. Since 1988, weekly declines average from –0.88% for NASDAQ to –1.43% for Russell 2000. S&P 500 has only posted full-week gains five times in the last 26 years.

The SPY is still on a bollinger squeeze, some one mentioned that was the narrowest distance between the bollinger's since, well, some thing like when Columbus reputedly discovered the West Indies, the squeeze doesn't tell you the direction, only that a BIG MOVE "could" be coming once we start walking one side of the bollingers. We need to reverse Friday right away, it made a new ATH and failed to hold it, it had an outside day, and could be setting up an Island reversal, or an abandoned baby.

The "risky" assets look flat fricking horrible, just a Uuugilly bearish engulfing bar, I just love the dramatic drop in volume for the three days preceding Friday, that's just enthralling isn't it?? They are already on the bollingers and SHOULD continue to walk down them.

The $NYAD's made a serious effort to get over the trigger line on those three up days, but failed right at it on Friday.

The $NYSI has no qualms at all saying that breath sucks, it's made a MUCH lower high and is showing no signs of turning up.

These are the big winner's in my 73 markets this week, several of our markets made the leader board, the XIV exploded on Wednesday after Grandma said she would never raise interest rates again in my life time, XLV was our best sector, up 1.68%, then the stoggie old DOW showed up this week as our big winner in the majors, up 1.5%, then one that cracks me up is TLT, up 1.08% and edging out the SPY which was "only" up .79%, that's just the new normal under the massive FED manipulation champain as stocks go up while at the same time inwestor's are piling into the safety of bonds. Speaking of "risk" the Q's were only up .50% this week, with the IWM bringing up the rear DOWN 1.21%.
A majority of the markets still have a golden cross, 20ma above 50ma, 39, but that's down from 44 a week ago, 11 markets made 20 day highs this week, up from just one last week, while 18 made new lows, down from 19 last week.

I think this is the second week in a row with GDX leading up lower, down 5.11%, SLV was down 3.91% which makes GLD look a little strange, as it was "only" down 1.09% on the week. One of my favorite countries, EWA, has closed below the lower bollinger for seven days in a row, and has taken out almost seven months of gains. I probably won't get interested unless the dollar starts dropping again, and the yield gets back over 5%, which with the reduction in the rate it would have to get back un $20.  It's my favorite outfit because they told the Obama environmental extremist to go screw themselves and repealed the carbon tax that was costing consumers 9% of their electrical bills.

VRTX was the big winner in the S and P 500 this week , up 11.57%, but I like the one in second place, DD up 10% after Nelson Peltz said it would be worth more if it became some thing else, hahahahahahaha!!
The S and P ended the week with 84 new 52 week highs, up from 18 last week, new lows were 10 vs 7, basically the same stocks keep showing up on the list below, like OI, BTU, DO, RIG. 20 day highs increased to 153 from 35, and lows dropped from 147 to 48, 368 are on a golden cross.

Hhhhmmmm, AA showed up way down at the bottom of this list, down 3.05%, is the party over??

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