Thursday, August 14, 2014

WEEKLY WRAP UP


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Despite the decent up day today the $NYSI made an absolutely ZERO attempt to move higher and remains on a solid sell signal.


The more important issues, the $NYAD's, at least hooked higher today, and came within a knat's ass of issuing it's own buy signal. HOWEVER, I like to see them LEAD the market, by breaking that red down trend line before the markets move to new highs. A move to new highs by the market and a REJECT of that red line by the NYAD's would be a complete disaster.


Hmmmmmmmm, the Junk/Treasury ratio does a good job of bottoming when the market bottoms, and going up when the market goes up, CURRENTLY, it is working on a HUGE DIVERGENCE with those markets. It's always interesting when some thing does some thing totally out of character with it's past history.


There were 31 winner's in my 73 markets this week, 19 of them were our major markets or one of the sector's, so we are showing pretty good relative strength VS the rest of the world. Our big winner was the biggest laggard this year, the little guys, IWM up 1.44% on the week, They were followed by some sector's like XLY, XLB, XLP, IYR, XLE, XLI, XLF, JNK and TLT managed to slip in the middle of those, our next best major was actually RSP, the S and P equal weight, up .55%, although not considered a major it contains the same 500 stocks as the SPY, which was only up .38%, the big boys slipped in between them, DIA up .47%, and the NasDOGS brought up the rear, Q's up .24%.


The DIA's look to be the most interesting major to me, they pulled down to their 200 DMA, EXACTLY, and then had the big bounce today, that 200 MA is also the last swing low as shown by the red line, it triggered a new buy signal on the Woodies CCI, and it's sitting right at the "T" line, the black 8 EMA, which a break over is considered a buy signal in some circles. It's to bad we had such a big day today, that 200 MA is the ideal STOP level, but it's pretty far away now.


I consider the GDX pretty interesting as well, it's been going side ways for almost two months now in a visible range, it's on the 12th day of a BB Squeeze, which means a BIG move is a coming it's way, the Woodies CCI is saying that the move is going to be HIGHER, it's in the third day of a buy signal. My personal stop will be under Thursday's low around $26.40. Just an idea, I actually HATE gold as it tends to have OVER NIGHT moves, sigh, meaning you could wake up in the morning BROKE!! I won't exactly be going hog wild on my position sizing.


The loser's list was chock full of those udder worldly markets, kind of surprising to me that RSX was down in 18th, I figured they would be winning, eeeeeeerrrrrrr, LOSING, that honor went to Italy, EWI down 5%, followed by the Turk's, TUR down 3.48%.


The EWG just missed the top 20 loser's, it was 21st at -1.01% on the week. I bring it up because I was "looking" at it, Germany being the best of the lot over there IMPO, the daily looks horrible but I thought it might be hitting some support in the $28 "area", but the weekly chart doesn't really show it. There is a prior high way over on the left side from 2011 in this area, but that was right before it collapsed down to $17. Ya know, it had that beautiful run from mid 2012, but it's been going side ways all year, and it just broke the "BOX" it's been trading in, by breaking the last swing low last week. I mean, because it had that nice run it didn't leave many clear "support" "areas", the next swing low is around $25.50, then the 200 MA around $24.50, then the next swing low at $21.50, just a lot of AIR sitting under it. If it could climb back into the "BOX", and set up a BB Squeeze, I might get interested, but I don't think I'd touch it until some thing like that. The VGK looks very similar, which makes sense as I imagine Germany is it's biggest component.


I believe the markets with a death cross, 20 MA below 50 MA, increased again this week to 31 out of the 73.


Here's the winner's for the S and P 500, FSLR, "COULD", have more to run, just my personal opinion of course.


And here's the loser's.

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