Sunday, July 06, 2014

WEEKLY AND MID YEAR WRAP UP

The SPY had a quick two day bollinger squeeze, in the red box, as we waited on the pay roll report, the Woodies CCI in the green box gave a buy signal two days before the report, so it ended up being correct, remember, the "Squeeze" indicator doesn't give you a direction, it just says a big move is eminent.
Well, we got an almost perfect "Equal Move" scenario based on the February low to the March high, the Equal Move came from the April low to the June high, that's the blue lines, Ssssoooooooooooooo, based on that, I, COULD, make a case that we, MIGHT, be setting up for another "Equal Move", the orange lines, where we use the May lows to the June highs as the base, and that gives us a target in  the "AREA" of $203. THIS, of course, is a lot less of a move that what the last one was, but the pull back in April and May were a lot less than the February pull back, so I guess that's to be expected.
Just like DOW 1,000 and 10,000, and the S and P 1,000, we, MAY, tend to struggle at the whole number of 2,000, where we dance all around it for quite a while, it's kind of interesting that we are getting ready for this test while going into an earnings season. Alcoa leads us off on Tuesday, and since they went to Da stinking moooooooon after losing two BILLION dollars last quarter, if they can just manage to LOSE about THREE BILLION this quarter, they may REALLY go to Da stinking mooooooooooon, hahahahahahahaha!


India and China, EPI and FXI, led us higher this week in my 73 markets I keep track of, up 4.46 and 3.5%, with Taiwan and our best industry, the Semi's, EWT and SMH, squeezing in between them at about 4%. The NasDOGS and little guys were our major market leaders again this week, QQQ and IWM up 2.53 and 2.32%, DIA were up 1.42% with the SPY bringing up the rear at 1.41%.


The loser's, other than the inverse funds, were any thing interest rate related, as XLU lost 2.83% and TLT 2.16%. Commodities were a little weak as well, pbrobably in anticipation of the World Wide economic boom that we've been promised for five years, with DBA, USO, UNG, and DBC all down, which probably didn't help Brazil, EWZ down .91%, JNK, IYR, SLV and GLD were all just barely higher on the week, as higher interest rates didn't help any of them. 


The list of markets with a Death Cross, 20 DMA below 50 DMA, increased a little this week to 15, with several of those "udder" world ETF's on the list, like EWD, EIRL, EIDO, ECH, EGPT and EWK.


The Mid year actually ended on Monday, but here's the list of market winner's YTD, I'm kind of surprised by GDX being up 25%, GLD was "only" up 9.5%, our best industry was the Semi's again, up 20%, with our best Major market being............................. are you ready for this...................... TAAAA DAAAA............ BONDS, with TLT up 10.32%, as people fled into the safety of bonds to avoid the World Wide economic boom I guess. Our best stock market was Da Q's, QQQ up 9.8%, then the SPY, IWM, with the big Dogs, DIA, bringing up the rear, they were up 8.31, 4.54 and 4.11% respectively. One note of interest, the equal weight S and P 500, RSP, was right in back of the Dog's, up 9.59%, as they generally lead the SPY on the upside, AND, on the down side, but, of course, we don't have to worry about the DOWN SIDE any more, as Grandma Yellin and her croonies have every thing under control.


Here's the S and P winner's YTD, energy got the gold and silver medals, with NBR and NFX the big winners. AA, after two horrendous earnings quarters in a row, ONLY, managed to tack on 41.59%, like I said, if they can just manage a three BILLION loss on Tuesday, well, hey, the sky's the limit! By the way, this is NOT, sour grapes, as always I've been in and out of Alkie, for as long time reader's know I've traded this thing for like, EVER, and I'm currently IN it, that's why I'm rooting for a huge loss on Tuesday, hahahahahahaha, for after watching the share price go down when they were MAKING money, I guess it's only fair for it to go up while losing money.


TMK was actually NOT the big loser, it had some financial engineering stuff it was doing, COH won that distinction, followed by CLF and WFM, I still don't know why they booted "X" out of the S and P and not CLF, they were the only ones with a lower market cap than "X", but, wad ever.


These are the S and P stocks with an RSI 14 over 80, which in the good old days used to be considered over bought and probably shortable, but in the NEW World order these are the ones that will probably get MORE over bought.


Hahahahahaha, this is funny, I ran a Peter Lynch value scan of the S and P 500 just as a kind of joke, to see if any one actually showed up on it, and the six stocks above popped up, and I said to myself, WHAT THE HELL ARE THOSE TWO PIECES OF CHINESE SHIT, CGA AND EDS, DOING ON THE LIST, THEY AREN'T IN THE S AND P????? It turns out there are NO S and P 500 companies on the list, what this scan does is scan companies with a market cap of 10 Billion or less, which is about 4200 companies, when I take the 10 Billion cap out of the parameter's and just scan the S and P 500 nobody shows up.
ANY WAY, I'm thinking about it, out of 4200 stocks, SIX, show up........................hhhhmmmmmm, and TWO of them are Chinese..................hhhhhmnmmmmm........................


The charts certainly aren't that GREAT, but if you are a Peter Lynch follower I guess it wouldn't matter to you.............. RIGHT????? Generally, he holds his stocks for like six to eight years.
By the way, I have Magic Jack, which is what "CALL" is, and I can tell you that they are pulling FORWARD a LOT of their earnings, as you can NOT sign up for the $18.95 for the next year now, you have to PRE-pay for the next five years in order to get that rate, I'm sure that any one who has done their due diligence before "investing" in the stock knows this, so they are not going to be getting a DIME from me, and probably a lot of their other existing customers, for at least five years.

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