Saturday, April 26, 2014

WEEKLY WRAP UP



The Q's rallied right into that $88 level I talked about last week that would "possibly" set up the head and shoulders scenario, it did it on the gap up from the "Financial Engineering" earnings from AAPL At one point they had a horrendous bearish engulfing bar that day but managed to close right at the highs from Wednesday and I thought it might have saved them, but some more lousy earnings Thursday set up the big down day on Friday.
Really, they are in no man's land right now as it's a huge congestion zone between the shoulder tops and the neck line at $84, going back to last December, so, it could be a choppy piece of you know what until we either break the neck line or go higher. "IF", Madam Chairman Yellin doesn't totally panic if we do ever break that neck line, then it sets up a target on an "Equal Move" scenario from the shoulder top down to $81, an "Equal Move" from the Head to the neck line sets up a target down to $77. Every thing sets up on this pattern, the last piece was the "Time" element, as the right shoulder is the same time distance from the head now as the left shoulder was, sooooooooooo........ it all depends on the FED should we get to the neck line.

The $NYSI remains on a buy, we've had no whip saw, YET, it would take a couple of more days of down side to go back to a sell.


The big winners in my 73 markets this week were GDX and EGPT, both up over 3%, OIH and XLE were higher again, DBA and IYR joined the inflationary push to try and crush the massive economic recovery as soon as possible, XLU was the sector winner up 1.91% with TLT joining the flight to safety up 1.16%, other sectors that were higher were XLV and XLP.


Russia, RSX, was the big loser this week, down 9.38%, oil, USO, was actually down this week 2.81%, most of the other loser's were those Udder Worldly markets, the SMH was the worst industry this week, down 1.53%. In a surprise to me, Da Q's were actually our best major market this week, only down .01%, they were followed by the SPY, DIA, with the little guys, IWM, the big loser's at 1.16%.


These are the markets that have a death cross, defined as the 20 DMA lower than the 50 DMA, both the Q's and IWM are on the list, XLY and XLV are on the list, GLD and GDX are on the list but they are both green as they rallied back above the 20 DMA this week.


Here's the winner's in the S and P this week, some "interesting" moves were made by NEM, up 12.36%, as the CEO saved the horrible earnings report by saying he was open to merger talks with ABX, the REALLY interesting one was BTU, the earnings report was a LOSS of 18 cents compared to an expected profit, their revenue per ton DECLINED by 17%, and the CEO compounded it by saying the LOSSES would CONTINUE to MOUNT, hahahahahahahaha, all it did was RALLY 7.72% after they said they would cut production MORE and close some Australian mines, which makes sense I guess as it cuts the LOSSES for each ton they produce, wad ever, I was HOPING the report would be bad enough to get them down to their fair value of $14.50, but no such luck.


IRSG is my new hero as they are the big loser in the S and P for the second week in a row, down 11% this week, I'm, SURE, they'll be higher one of these weeks, IGT continues to get ripped, I get the feeling that might be saying some thing about Vegas, ISLE, MGM, WYNN, CZR were all down on the week but LVS was slightly higher, some of the Momo boys in the NasDOGS showed up, like TRIP, NFLX, AMZN, CRM and YaHOOOOOOO.

If stock market prices unfold in the way that we expect, the financial headlines at the end of 2014 will look a lot different than last year. Read more.

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