Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Hahahahaha, a great chart, Kimble Charting.com has been keeping track of the continuing NEW records of margin debt on the NYSE, he was out this morning on StockTwits showing the new ATH's, eeeeeeerrrrrr, or, LOWS, in this case.
The implications of this massive margin debt are obvious to any one, it's just a matter of time before Da boyz take it to them, but I think people are asking the wrong question, the general question on StockTwits being, well, how much further can this expand before the end comes Chris?? If you look on the chart, the end came when margin debt CONTRACTED, not EXPANDED, I show that with the red lines I drew on the chart. The peak margin debt came on the FIRST high in 2000, then contracted on the SECOND high, then again in 2007, where it "appears" it contracted at the October 2007 high from that previous high.
The implication is, again, OBVIOUS, as, SOME BODY, the hedge funds, Institutions, IE the BIG boys, starting pulling their money as the market made new highs, so the way I see it is we should not get worried, IE the debt can continue to EXPAND as the market goes higher, the time to get worried is when it finally contracts at a new ATH. I would also note that in the two prior cases there was about a four or five month lag in the contraction periods before the END came, so there should be plenty of time here before we turn into worry warts, although, PERSONALLY, I worry ALL the time, hahahahahaha!

PastStat is out with their seasonality chart for the SPY since 1993, APRIL IS MOST BULLISH MONTH, the stat I find interesting is the month that is known for the biggest market crash's, October, is the SECOND most bullish month of the year.


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