Saturday, March 01, 2014

WEEKLY WRAP UP

$Forecastis, which you can get on StockTwits, uses fractal geometry and behavioral fiance to "forecast" the future direction of stocks, perfect for people who use VooDoo to choose stocks, their list as of 2/28 is:
OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS:
MSFT: 60% CHANCE HIGHER, TARGET $41
QQQ:  60% CHANCE HIGHER, TARGET $94
IWM:  70% CHANCE HIGHER, TARGET $123
GOOG: 70% CHANCE HIGHER, TARGET $1300
SPY: 70% CHANCE HIGHER, TARGET $190
CRM: 70% CHANCE HIGHER, TARGET $72

I have no comment on the above, I, DO, however, intend on doing a spread sheet on their "predictions" and see what kind of reliability they have.........they currently have about 2,074 "ideas", so, it may take me a............COUPLE................ of years. Once in a long while they give you back test results, for instance, since 1986 their results on MSFT have been 90% correct.

Ok, after four or five hours I do have a comment, I ran the results back to mid December, mainly because I wanted to get the predictions going into the drop in January, and out of 305 predictions the thing was wrong on 166 of them, or 54%, so he's right about 46% of the time, typical.
In going through all the charts I did find some thing interesting, I don't follow this stock so I was a little surprised, considering that all the hype I've heard on it I expected it to be straight UP, like all those udder stupid 1000 P/E social media stocks, or some times called the "Two Kids in a Garage Company":


It's LNKD, geeze, the things been consistently making lower swing highs and lower swing lows since last September, and just got REEEEEEEEEEEE...........JECTED, at an automatic trend line that's on the software, the thing don't look that stinking good to me, at least, right now it doesn't, I thought this thing was the greatest thing, like, EVER! 



I have the SPY chart up there just to show the NEW ALL TIME HIGHS, and also to show how my post from Thursday about the strange action of the $VIX and $TRIN might result in a surprise gap down, it proved correct as the SPY gapped down FIVE CENTS, hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
Speaking of NATH's and "strange", that table is my spreadsheet that monitor's 2500+ stocks that finish 4% or higher on a daily and weekly basis, it seems strange that on a NATH day the stocks DOWN 4% would out number the stocks HIGHER by 2.50 times, but, HEY, after Thursday I've decided not to DO "strange" any more, it probably just means we gap even higher on Monday, especially with the Russian new's as Wall Street just LOVES war and blood shed. The late day sell off was probably Da Boyz getting the news from their lackey's in Congress and the Senate about the possible invasion, as that's why they've made them the richest people in the world, to get that inside info ahead of time. 
Speaking of the slim bag's in DC and their insider trading, it gets even more incredible as we find out that the employee's in the SEC are using their regulatory powers to enrich themselves with their own insider trading,

The incredible stock-picking ability of SEC employees.


Hahaha, I can just hear the phone conversation when the fund manager that owns a billion shares of some outfit call's the CEO to get his customary insider information on their earnings report, and the CEO says I'm sorry but SEC regulations require I give that info to their employees first, then POTUS, then Senators, then Congressmen, and, THEN, I can give it to you. 


The big winner's in my 80 markets this week were mostily the Udder worldly markets, with Egypt leading the way this week, EGPT up 5%, followed by Ireland, EIRL up 4.76%, Chairman Yellin has to be a happy camper as the DBA was up another 2.74% this week, helping to full fill her dream of crushing the average American with inflation. Our sector winner's were OIH up 2.67%, followed by XLY, XLB XLP, our major market winner was the little guys, IWM up 1.78%, and in another "strange" one it appears inwestor's were fleeing to the safety of bonds as they finished next, TLT up 1.69%, the DIA was next followed by the SPY, and then a surprising fourth place for da NasDOGS, QQQ up .87% on the week.


The loser's were mostly the inverse funds, UNG was the big winner as it had a record drop when it appeared warmer weather my be on the horizon, so their rip off schemes kind of went out the window. RSX dropped another 4.79%, not because of the possible invasion but because of the Olympics, precious metals on the list kind of surprised me as I woulda thunk they would go up on International tensions, but I woulda thunk wrong. Another surprise, to me, was XLU down .32%, aren't they supposed to go up when interest rates go lower?? Oh, that's right, I guess we can't go any lower than the FED mandated ZERO PERCENT!


The big loser in the S and P this week was CLF, as Da Boyz took it to any one that brought the snap back rally above $23, down 8.83% on the week, as it literally fell off a "CLIFF".........................
Some notables on the list were the refiner's, as I guess they were getting hurt by the WTI/BRENT or crack spread, which seems a little weird as I'm sure Colorado will approve the purchase of CRACK any day now.


As always, the big winners are presented as a courtesy for those of you that love to BTALTFH's.


I'm presenting the weekly Alkie chart, AA, because, well, I always carry a little "inwestment" in it, and frankly I was caught a little by surprise by the 2.41% drop on Friday, it didn't make the list of weekly winner's even though it finished higher by ONE CENT on the week. I thought with the Russian invasion it would go up on possible replacement pickups for the Ukraine, but then it dawned on me they probably don't have that many Ford or GM trucks there, PLUS, I've heard that aluminum truck bodies don't hold up that well when hit by phosphate bombs.
ANYWAY, I would, NEVER, say it might be finding resistance at $12, but those are some MASSIVE topping tails on that weekly chart, and it, COULD, pull back and test $11 again, and, who knows, it may even try $10..........$9??? Of course, one of Da Boyz on Da Street that holds a massive position in it may decide enough is enough, and come out next week and upgrade it to $100 or some thing like that, that's always possible.

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