Sunday, February 23, 2014

WEEKLY WRAP UP


If you are looking for day trading ideas each day you can like "Pristine.com" at Facebook and get their day trading ideas about 15 minutes before the market opens each day, they usually concentrate on gapper's for that day, here's an example of what they sent Friday morning so you can check out what they look at:

Longs: ISIS PCYC FUEL COMM DISH ARUN QLIK

Shorts: ACTG BCOR GRPN VMI JWN MHK

I want to point out that if you check the charts out each one of the LONG ideas went DOWN after the open with the exception of ISIS, and all the SHORT ideas went UP after the open with the exceptions of GRPN and BCOR, just another example of how totally screwed up this stinking market is. 
Another question I have is GRPN going to ZERO??!!!!! Hahahahahahaha........HAH! EVENTUALLY, all those stupid and worthless Social Media stocks will be joining them. 

For those of you who enjoy some light reading on weekends you can down load a very interesting article from Caginalp and Laurent on the "The Predictive Power of Price Patterns",
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=932984

This is actually about CandleStick patterns, they looked at eight CandleStick patterns on ALL the stocks in the S and P 500 from 1992 to 1996, and used EXTENSIVE statistics and science to test them to see if they actually had any predictive power. To no ones surprise, especially ME, they found that they DO, hahahahahaha, imagine that, they found out that some thing that has been around for Centuries actually WORKED.......WOW!
Their favorites were the TWS, "THREE WHITE SOLDIERS", and the TIU, "THREE INSIDE UP", both of which had PREDICTIVE powers of about 75%.
Their whole reason for doing the article was to disprove their fellow scholars who believe in the EMH, "EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS", who scoff at technical analysis and claim it has ZERO predictive power, and they claim that this article is the FIRST scientific study to do so.
One of their more unbelievable conclusions was, "The results provide evidence that trader's are influenced by price behavior".................hahahahahahahahahahahaha...........HAH! Are you fricking shitting me, I mean, ALL price is, is, BEHAVIOR, of, PEOPLE, it's about the psychology of individuals, which is why Wall Street fired all their technical analyst year's ago and do nothing but hire thousands of PHD's in psychology and sociology, as it's their fear and greed that they prey upon, of which, I might add, I HAVE PLENTY OF!! Fear and greed that is, and I might add that I actually have VERY little greed, as I tend to (much to my detriment at times) exit the building way before Elvis......... I JUST DON'T TRUST THE BASTARDS!

Which brings up another article, the last, Todd Harrison wrote about his Angels and Demons, http://bit.ly/1mzXIW0, in which he basically says the same thing, his experiences in the market the last 15 years have left him with a general mistrust of the markets.

Ok, I, LIED, one more, What Will Blow Up First? Part I



No need to show any "Breath" indicators, they all remain on buy signals, no divergences yet, nothing. AS ALWAYS, I hate to bring up any charts of the SPY or the rest of them, as the "Invisible Hand" keeps pushing them higher with the battle cry of "MULTIPLE EXPANSION", or in jargon for us common folks, "EXPENSIVE". ANYWAY, if this was in "normal" times, I might say that we had a failed break out to new highs Friday, but it's not really as we failed to take out the prior high from a few days ago, one thing that looks a little shaky to me is the ROC at the bottom, we still have not gotten over the ZERO line. The September-October period over on the left side looks VERY similar to our current period, by the third day of the rally then we were over the ZERO line, here we are 13 days into this one and we have not been able to get over it. Another thing is the volume, we had pretty decent volume the first 10 days of the October rally, MUCH more than what we've had now, heck, the little rally in December dwarf's any thing we've had in the current period.  Lastly, the green circle in October shows how we went up to the prior swing high and that "HAND" gapped us right over the prior high, we've been sitting up here for four days and haven't been able to do that. 
I would, CERTAINLY, never say any thing stupid like we've double topped it and are probably heading down, but it sure doesn't seem all that great to me. 


Nat gas led the charge in my 80 markets this week, up 10.04%, and with oil over $100 and our food products, DBA, blasting higher another 4.51%, the FED may be getting close to it's dream of killing off the rest of what's left of the middle class. Most of the other winner's were those other worldly exchanges, our best sector was, not surprisingly, XLE, up 1.75% on the oil pump. Our best major index was the little guys, IWM, 1.55%, followed by SPY, .48%, NasDOGS, QQQ, .33%, just edging out the DIA at .32%.


The BIG loser's were, well, not many, mostly the inverse funds, it cracks me up to see RSX leading all indexes on the down side, hahahahahahahahahaha, I guess the stinking Olympics are not that fricking great for them!! Which goes right along with the typical historical trend of most of the host countries getting their ass kicked after spending all that money on basically "PROFESSIONAL" athletes, wad ever, YOUR TURN IS COMING UP BRAZIL!! Two of our majors showed up on the list, XLF down .60% and XLK down .14%. 


Most of the S and P winner's this week were either companies that were brought out or companies doing stock buy backs, as they can't figure out any thing else to do with their Trillion's in cash hoards, the one that cracks me up is NBR at number two, up 21.28%, their earnings were 42.2% LOWER than the same year ago quarter, Nabors Up on Q4 Earnings Beat , and 45.3% LOWER in 2013 than in 2012, when their stock hit a HIGH of 18 stinking dollars!! Wad ever, they were up because they beat the ANAL-ysts guesstimates, and in the conference call they said good things, like, really, HONEST, we'll do better this year, woooo hooooo!! They popped the next day on an ANAL-yst upgrade based on "MARGIN EXPANSION"!


One of NBR's rivals, COG, led the charge lower this week because the dumb bastards made the mistake of BEATING the earnings from the year ago quarter, and ALSO DOUBLING their earnings in 2013 compared to 2012, GET YOUR ACT TOGETHER, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! It dropped the next day when an ANAL-yst came out and down graded it with "NO MARGIN EXPASION FOR YOU"!! "X" came in third worse as it fell 5.91% when the Government came out and said it wasn't going to support the pricing needed to carry it's Union employees as it excluded some Asian pipe makers from Tariffs.

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