Sunday, February 02, 2014

FORGET THE JANUARY "BAROMETER"



Closing below the December low has ALWAYS been the more important "BAROMETER", as pointed out in the Stock Trader's Almanac,  BREAKING THE DECEMBER LOW.
Number one, it cracks me up that I have seen virtually NOTHING mentioned about this, the obvious reason being that it's NOT GOOD! Number two, the chart above is just a little joke of mine, as you have to look at the actual $SPX chart and this SPY chart to see what a true joke it is, I mean, the guy that the NYSE employee's to sit down in their basement at his personal computer and wait for the phone call from above before posting what they decided the cash index would open and close at is just unreal, the index that is actually TRADED, the SPY, opened down $2.23 on Friday, or 22.3 stinking $SPX points, while the guy in the basement opened the $SPX down 3.31 points, or 33 cents on the REAL DEAL, the SPY. The guy actually had the audacity to not allow the $SPX to even violate the December low at ANY time, while the SPY above clearly shows three lower lows on it. 
Wad ever, it's not my intention to rag on the poor guy, he only does what he's told to do, IT'S NOT HIS FAULT DAMMIT! ANYWAY, back to the main point, the guy that sit's in the basement and does the $DOW actually DID let it close below the December low, and as pointed out in the STA article above, there's only been 21 times this has happened since 1950, that is the $DOW breaks the December low AND January is DOWN, the AVERAGE loss is 14%, and the full year ended up being positive only seven of those 21 times, with the full year averaging a loss of 3.2%.
BUTT, the stat that REALLY gets me, and one the STA article didn't mention, is that the SPY only lost 3.5% this month from the December close, which is LESS than ANY of the 21 loss's in the column "Cross-Low", meaning, we, PROBABLY, haven't even STARTED the decline yet!

SIGH, Ya Know, I actually debated whether to post this or not, for by posting it I would virtually ASSURE that the $SPX would do some thing it had not done since 1950, and that is post the lowest loss EVER when those horrible combined January stat's showed up!!! I assured this a year ago when I pointed out that the SPY had done some thing it had NEVER done, that is, NOT fill the gap from the opening of the year, that being the gap left from the open of 2012, PLUS, the index gained 13.5% in 2012 while earnings declined in every one of the last three quarters of the year, AND, declined on a YOY basis.............hahahahahahahaha!

Speaking of, quote, EARNINGS, the table below is the ACTUAL earnings from the source, Standard and Poors, the green box on the left side is from a down load I did in early 2013, and it shows the PROJECTED GUESSTIMATE of earnings for 2013, it comes out to $78.80 for the first three quarters of 2013, the red box is the ACTUAL reported earnings as of today, it totaled out to $73.72, or 6.5% LOWER than the "guesstimates"................hahahahahahahahahahahaha!
To show I'm fair and balanced, I will give the index it's due, we gained 11% in earnings in the first three quarters of 2013 compared to 2012, which resulted in a 27% gain, not to bad a trade off! Another good thing is that with $73.72 in earnings through the first three quarters we only need $26.29 for fourth quarter earnings to finally, FINALLY, get over $100 in a year for the S and P. I say, FINALLY, because I swear they've been saying we will gain over $100 since AT LEAST, what, 1999???




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