Sunday, January 26, 2014


The good news is that we can fall 90 points on the SPX before we hit the first uptrend line that goes back two years at 1700, and I can make a case that the second uptrend line is actually a BETTER line, that comes in at about 1650, so in, THEORY, we could fall 140 points from here and still not invalidate the current bull market. 
The BAD news is that we can fall 90 points on the SPX before we hit the first uptrend line that goes back two years at 1700, and I can make a case that the second uptrend line is actually a BETTER line, that comes in at about 1650, so in, THEORY, we could fall 140 points from here and still not invalidate the current bull market................
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA..........HAH!! Oh god, I crack myself up some times, hehe, wad ever, more bad news is that the MACD is just now giving a sell signal, and probably has a mile to fall before it would give a new buy signal. The good news is that the more important ROC is not even CLOSE to giving a sell signal, the last time it did was in June of 2011 before the collapse in August of that year. 


SIGH, I hate to even bother posting charts any more, as all it takes is one word from that stinking FED and the chart gets blown to pieces, since their whole goal in life is to try and control the stock market and business cycles, and I guarantee you that any more drops and Yellin will panic and get rid of the Taper and probably DOUBLE the last QE, wad ever, as she enriches Wall Street and tell's Main Street to suck it up.
BUTT, in the unlikely even they DON'T intervene, the first obvious support comes in at about 177, with the next one coming in at about 172, what I find really interesting though is the 200 DMA that sits at 169, that fits almost exactly with the weekly trend line in the top chart, plus $166.50 would be a nice 10% correction.
One supremely BAD thing is that the all important ROC litterally crashed through the ZERO line, a sell signal, and this after ONLY two down days, YIKES!


The $NYAD's took quite a hit yesterday, but I wouldn't get worried about them unless they start LEADING to the down side, right now the market has breached the November and December highs while the NAD's are not even close to that yet.


The $NYMO is NOTHING, and won't GET interwesting until it get's down in the -100 "area" for a few days.



I actually waited until this morning to do my update as I thought the StockChart data on the $NYSI was wrong yesterday after the close, but it's showing the same thing this morning, we did NOT trigger a sell signal, I was really surprised, I still think it's wrong, but I guess I can't argue with it. The weekly chart at the top is really concerning, we have a HUGE divergence between the May highs and where we are now, the STOCH is in it's longest stretch of being over bought in the last three years, but the good part is is that we did make a HIGHER LOW with a very slightly HIGHER HIGH, so maybe we save ourselves next week.


The 15 winner's in my market monitor were dominated by the inverse funds and VXX as expected, plus bonds, I think precious metals are a little misguided but what do I know, the roach's used the cold snap to jack Nat Gas and oil, sigh, the one that cracks me up is that one of the LEAST loser's in our indexes was JNK, hahahahahahaha, since, WHEN, did JNK turn into a DEFENSIVE play?? I guess you can blame the FED on that one as well, I guess the MASSIVE 6% yield is the safety feature, hahahahaha, it will be until they find out WHY it's called JUNK!


The loser's list is dominated by all the "E" things, like in Udder Worldly indexes, that fricking Turkey lost ANOTHER 10% this week, I mean, I don't know how many weeks in a row they've lost 10%, but I DO know they can only go 10 weeks before they hit ZERO! Our worst sector was materials, XLB, losing 4.71%, followed by the industrials, XLI, -4.36%, then the banks, XLF, at -4.05%.


For you slimy bottom fisher's like, ME, here's the list of the biggest loser's in the S and P this week, it was mostly material stocks but the big surprise, to me, was KSU falling 15%, that was all on Friday on an earnings miss, which seems impossible with the fantastic Economic expansion the FED has engineered, I guess that explains the 8% drops in GE and WHR as well. One stock I'm interested in is Citigroup, C, it fell 10% on NON earnings, if it can get back to ONE DOLLAR again I will DEFINITELY get interwested!


Here's the list of the beeg wiener's in the S and P for all you BTFATH'ers.

Speaking of Citigroup (I was, WASN'T I??), I want to plug one of my new favorites, Ross Givens, he's a "VALUE" inwestor in the Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch style, so completely worthless to people like me who have about a 5 minute "inwesting" time horizon, he sent me a video last night on a sight I now list on the blog list on the right side, GuruFocus New Articles, you can get these video's every night for free by signing up at his site at http://www.bluetickresearch.com/ .


You go to the site and enter the ticker in the box in the upper left corner, like "C", it pulls a menu down and you click on "Interactive Chart", it brings up this page, you then click on "Peter Lynch Chart" in the user defined chart that I high lighted in the green box, and it pulls up a 20 plus year chart of "C" that compares it's stock price to what the stock price would be if it had a 15 P/E with a base line of 15. I guess Peter felt that a 15 P/E was the best median or average P/E to be a "Value" investor. 
This is just for "LONG TERM" investor's who are looking to truly invest in "VALUE", but it is interesting. You can see that Citi got considerably over valued from 1998 to 2001 as the red price line was above the blue 15 P/E line, this got corrected during the 02' Bear market where it got considerably UNDER valued, which actually persisted all the way into the financial crisis, where it got briefly over valued in 09' and again in 10', HOWEVER, it currently has fair value for "C" at $66.30, considerably higher than the $49.33 it closed at on Friday. It actually has BAC OVER valued, as it lists fair value at $15.20 with the stock closing at $16.45 Friday, I actually thought it was the opposite situation, so I guess you buy "C" and short BAC.

Hhhhhhmmmmm, maybe I won't get my $1 for C??? Of course, with the reverse split it did the OLD $1 is now $10, so I guess maybe I'll wait for that price. 

Anyway, it's an interesting site. 



1 Comment:

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