Saturday, January 18, 2014

So I'm scanning the other night, and I come across, TAAAA DAAAA, TTC, which is TORO, an out fit that fits my "investment" parameters as I know EXACTLY what they do, as I've used their products since, well, time began. Naturally, what catch's my eye is that WONDERFUL chart, WOW, I'm impressed, I mean, if you can get a pull back to the bottom of the channel you can probably go for it, etc etc etc, so I do what I always do and click on a longer term chart:

And then I do what I always do, and I kind of glance down at the "METRIC'S", and I notice that it's trading at about 24.5 times on the P/E, and I kind of go, hhhhhhmmmmmmmm, WOW, I mean, I'm not sure, but I think that it sure seem's awfully HIGH for an out fit like TORO, I mean, I think, like, they probably don't change much through the year's on their growth and P/E and stuff, so what I do is click on the "TORO Co." on FinViz, which takes you to the company site, click on the investor's section, and you can get the yearly 10K's going back to 1994,, so you can actually see what they USED to make.

Now, I was on BarChart working on the massive "Expanding Wedge" on the DJI's so I just went to TTC for a historical chart, and what's obvious is that it was in a wonderful little channel going into 2000, and then the stock has just lost it's mind since then, with massive swings, including the current DOT.COM type run up since 2011.
Ok, so the middle table is the yearly earnings from 1996 to 1999, in that nice channel on the chart, so what I did was take their basic EPS and then down at the bottom in red I put in their P/E for the HIGH stock price and then the LOW stock price under that, the bottom table is the same thing for 2011 to last year.
The first thing I want to point out is the second chart down from the very top, I have a "12" under the low in 2011, at that low TTC was trading at a "12" P/E, exactly HALF of what you are paying UP for now, you get that, TTC is exactly TWICE as EXPENSIVE as it was just two years ago.
Ok, fine, wad ever, if you want to "invest" in this DOT.COM'ER you have to PAY UP PAL, ok, go for it, fine, wad ever, but here's what REALLY slay's me, and that's the tables', with the exception of some thing they did in 1998 their P/E in the middle table varied from a low of 8 to a HIGH of 15, with ROE's of 13 to 18%, Ya Know, typical of what I would expect of an out fit like this. But what really get's me is the EPS, THEY WERE MAKING MORE IN THAT PERIOD THAN NOW, that is, 1996 to 1999!!! It varied from $2.72 to $3.00 per share, compared to the $1.88 to the current $2.67 per share with their ROE jumping to 43.5% last year since 2011!

Ok, so what's the point you ask?? Well, to be honest, there is none, it's just me ragging on how fricking EXPENSIVE this stoopid market is, ESPECIALLY, those MEGA CAP consumer "staple" stocks, which have been trading at DOT.COM valuations for a few years. Well, ok, the true DOT.COMER's had NO earnings, Ya Know, kind of like the current "Social Media" darlings, but I consider them DOT.COMER's as they are trading at about double their "historical" valuations.


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