Sunday, December 08, 2013

WEEKLY WRAP




I would submit that the FED is RIGHT ON THE VERGE, of losing "control" of the bond markets. The ten year yield is moving back up to challenge the "INFAMOUS" 3% that every one seems to want to talk about, and, IF, we take it out, we may have a "KNEE KICK" pattern that would take an equal move in yields up to the 3.8% area. The 30 year at the top has, ALREADY, broken over the August highs, and is actually leading the ten year.
Every new FED Chair "Person" in history has, TRADITIONALLY, been, TESTED, at the start of their new tenure, and this could be Yellen's, quote, "TEST". She cannot, under any circumstances, afford to let the 30 year move higher, as it will be devastating to the housing, quote, "recovery". SO, rather than the dreaded "TAPERING", which the bond market itself is ALREADY in the process of doing, I can see Yellen panicking and actually INCREASING QE in a misguided attempt to regain control. 
This is neither here nor there of course, never under estimate those slim bag's in DC coming up with some god forsaken "scheme" to stay in power, but the coming times could get very interwesting, they could. 



I waited until this morning (Saturday morning) to update the $NYSI and NYAD's, as I thought StockCharts had some bad data last night, the $NYSI COULDN'T have gone down on that big up day, but Lo and Behold it was actually LOWER than what they gave last night, just unbelievable that it could have gone down yesterday, wad ever, this remains a very unhealthy market. At the end of last week we were right on the verge of a new buy signal, but with the gap down Monday it never triggered, and actually moved further away from the trigger line.


Nat gas and oil were the big winner's on my Market monitor last week, UNG up 5.33% and USO up 4.75%, two countries that were laggards last week headed the list this week, EPI up 5.16% and EGPT up 3.09%. Our big winners were Semi's, SMH up 1.12%, mostly due to the pump in INTC, and surprisingly utilities, XLU up 1.08%. Our major market leader was the NasDOG's, QQQ up .31%, the SPY was down .03% with it's short fund, SH, also down .04%, so you couldn't win for losing this week, DIA down .35, XLF .42, with the little guys bringing up the rear this week, IWM down .91%.
Santa can't come to early for the horned bovines, I imagine Da Boyz are just playing with the small cap "investors", pulling it back so it can make an even bigger Santa run, as they traditionally lead in the Santa rally and into the new year.


The loser's were not so precious, with GDX leading at minus 7.27%, besides SLV and GLD the list was filled with Europe and emerging market countries, as OUR higher interest rates took a toll on THEM, for what ever reason. 
Toni Hansen, in her Friday trading group last night, talked about gold and silver last night, as she had gotten a lot of inquire's about them, she thinks we may get the typical extremely over sold bounce, but we probably still have lower low's ahead of us before a sustained rally will start. 


FRX led the S and P 500 this week, up 10.91%, but the one that cracks me up is number two on the list, none other than CAMPBELL STINKING SOUP, hahahahahahaha, another one of those DOT.COM mega cap consumer staples, in the last three days of the week it took back the entire LOSS it had after reporting earnings, and then some, I checked the news on it and there was no explanation for such a weird move, just your typical strange thing that's been happening in this market, the five billion the FED pumped into Da Boyz yesterday as part of QE must have had a stickie note on it demanding they buy CPB, hahahahahahahahahaha!


The loser's were kind of a hodgepodge, as there didn't seem to be any discernible sector that stood out, I guess SWY showed up as they couldn't afford to stock any Campbell's soups, hahahahaha, sigh, I talked, UNFORTUNATELY, about JCP "POSSIBLY" being able to get back to $12 a couple of weeks ago, well, and again, SIGH, they made it back above $10 before dropping 20% this week, for some strange reason I get the impression that they might NOT get back there.


NEM was fourth on that list this week, losing 6.5%, this is NOT a recommendation, it will probably end up like JCP, BUTT, it broke below it's closing low from 2008, and is within shouting distance of it's tail lows around the $20 "area" from that year, I mean, it's, PROBABLY, the "safest" gold miner, and, IF, the sector is going to get an extreme over sold bounce, it, COULD, POSSIBLY, lead the charge, IF and WHEN it turns around.
With only about a half dozens disclaimer's above you can tell I'm just bubbling over with confidence in it.
Regardless, here's a few "IDEAS" I'll be watching next week:

NEM
 PFE
 CMG
 MMM

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