Sunday, November 10, 2013

If you are a "TRUE" inwestor, and possibly looking to hedge your MASSIVE LONG positions (like you SHOULD), Tim Knight has a couple of articles on possible shorts here, http://slopeofhope.com/, PLUS, if you look down the site at about the fourth article down, he even has some longs for you, ALTHOUGH, with all the sentiment surveys showing you at the LOWEST levels ever in cash, AND, the HIGHEST MARGIN LEVELS EVER, I can't figure out where you will find the money to do any thing, well, other than go deeper into your already record margin debt, but, HEY, what the hell, if it's good enough for our government it's good enough for you, RIGHT??!!

Alan Farley's site is a WONDERFUL site, always has been, you can get his seven bell's scan every day here, http://www.hardrightedge.com/daily/trader.htm. I think his book, "The Master Swing Trader", was one of the first I read back in 2000, right behind "Tools and Tactics for the Master Day Trader", written by the founder's of The Pristine trading room, WHICH, by the by, has a FREE day in the METHOD ROOM this Thursday, if you haven't checked out Paul Lange you should check them out this week, he's truly one of my favorites, if you don't have a FREE account go to http://www.pristine.com/, and sign up......... TODAY!


So, I woke up at 1:15 this morning, sigh, I've been doing this lately, I kind of get the feeling that I'm in deep DO DO, I did it a couple of other times this week, I don't know if it has to do with my Dad dying this week or not, wad ever.
So, I start off by turning on the TV to see what channel I was on last night when I fell asleep, I then go to the TV guide to see what the last thing I remember I was watching on that channel was, which turns out it was the Eastern Washington vs Montana State football game on the ROOT channel, which I didn't see the end of, so I was asleep before 8 O'clock. So I then go to ESPN.com to see who won, hahahahahahahahaha, such is the life of an old, OLD, man, sigh, and again, wad ever. Eastern Washington won, which means they basically locked up the Big Sky title, as they, SHOULD, win their last two conference games. SO, here's some trivia for those of you who only look at the headlines on the "EASTERN SPORTS AND PROGRAMMING NETWORK", some times called ESPN, EW is an FCS school, they average about 10,000 at their games, Montana State gets about 17,000 at their games, the leader in the conference is Montana, which averages 26,236 in a town with 63,394 people in it, so about 41% of the ENTIRE town shows up for the games.
NOW, the trivia I bring up, that you DON'T know, is that Eastern Washington, earlier in the season, beat the 25th ranked team in FBS at the time, Oregon State, AT Oregon State no less. NOW, I bring THAT up, because the big headline on the first page of the AHOLE ESPN site today, is the HUGE UPSET by Kansas State of the CURRENT 25th ranked team in the nation in FBS, Texas Tech, blowing them out 49-26 AT Texas Tech no less. NOW, what you WON'T see in the A**** ESPN article, is the little known article that ANOTHER FCS team, North Dakota State, went into Kansas State earlier in the season and beat them on their home turf, no less, which brings up another little know thing you may not know, that being that in the first week of the season this year, when the BIG BOYS, FBS, schedule all those PUSH OVER games with those poor little FCS teams, the FCS set two records with eight wins against them and scored a RECORD number of points against them, http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2013-08-31/count-ways-fcs-fbs.

The reason I bring this up, is because at 1 or 2 in the morning I'm a little, aaaaaaahhhhhh, EDGY, and the media bias just sends me into a rage at times, mostly in this case directed in those A***** at ESPN. According to them those poor kids don't belong on the same field with the FBS a***** (that's just a LITTLE a**** for them, as I have nothing against them), and should stick to playing Junior High School teams.

The reason I bring this up here is because I'm already in a rage over media bias, and I make the mistake of starting to wander through the shit a***** that try to warp the typical thinking of Mom and Pop Investors, the financial media in this case, and sure as shit just about the very first article I run into is this, birinyi-says-s-p-500-will-rise-to-1820-in-next-three-months.
NOW, I have nothing, absolutely ZERO, against Laszlo, I actually kind of like him as I think he's funny, but this article is about one of the most warped I've seen, and pretty typical of the bull shit out of the financial media. One thing is, is they paint the article as a battle between the bullish Birinyi and the BEARISH Einhorn, when in actuality that's NOT the case at all, number ONE, Einhorn is simply, CAUTIOUS, which is extremely reasonable for typical investor's when you consider this is the third most over valued market in the entire HISTORY of markets, when you go by the Shiller P/E. Number TWO, Einhorn is NOT SHORT, even according to the article he's like 65% LONG, and only 35% SHORT, which seems reasonable to me. Number THREE, the author pulls the typical A**** media bull shit, and brings up the 24% advance in the S and P for year, while failing to mention that earnings have only gone up some thing like 3 to 4%, and then really frost's my ball's when THEY say the P/E on the S and P has gone up to 16.7 with out mentioning what so ever what the METRIC is that they use to get that number, IE, they use what ever one they can find that is the LOWEST, probably the operating earnings which is minus all the bad stuff, for when I go to the actual S and P site I find the ACTUAL earnings, TTM, is 19.47, http://www.multpl.com/, which is ONLY, mind you, a slight little difference of 17.9%, with 19.47 itself being not exactly what I would consider, CHEAP!
Keep in mind, I'm a little, aaaaaaaaahhhhhhh, EDGY, at this time of the day, hahahahahahahaha, but the next part is what REALLY cracks me up:


They talk about Laszlo putting his money where his mouth is, and buying call options that expire in January, hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, gee minnie christmas criminie fricking sake, he says the S and P is going to 1820 by then, or $182 on the SPY, so he's buying an OTM call at a $182 strike, THAT, IF, the SPY MEETS HIS TARGET, HE'S GOING TO LOSE HIS WHOLE FRICKING INVESTMENT, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Number TWO, as shown in the red box at the bottom of the table, investor's believe in Laszlo's forecast SO much, they brought a WHOPPING 15 contracts on Friday, hahahahahahahaha, shit, even an itty bitty little tinie weenie "investor" like me shit's that out on a stinking mistake every day, sigh. To top THAT off, he's already LOST 2 cents on his investment, most likely just on a THETA loss on his OTM "investment", the people that are ACTUALLY "investing" in the S and P, all those contracts in the green boxes that are ITM calls, are dollaring down on their "investments"!!!!!!!

Sigh, wad ever, what a bunch of bull shit, I'm talking about ME of course, sigh, I'm going back to bed.

OH, yea, I forgot, that chart up at the top, YA KNOW, it sure seems a little, aaaaaaahhhhhhh, STRANGE, to me, and it's just my personal opinion of course, but it sure looks funny that the S and P has been going to Da Stinking MOON since February of this year, while during that same period MONEY FLOW has been fricking crashing, in PRIOR periods over the last three years, as shown on the chart, the S and P did this WEIRD thing, and actually went DOWN when MONEY FLOW went DOWN, but I guess the A***** at the FED have managed to warp the normal flow of investment ideas, as pumping 85 BILLION a month of made up FREE money into WALL STREET can do wonders for the normal market cycles. 

PS: This is much later, and probably REALLY stretching it, but people who live in the Mountain time zone can probably relate to this, the reason I was watching the ROOT network, is they have the ONLY games I CAN WATCH! All I watch is college football, on the boys side that is, I live in Beaver, Utah, which, the last time I looked, is on the WEST SIDE of the Rockies, I only care about teams I can relate to, which are teams from the WEST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES, I don't give a flying what ever about EASTERN teams, those that are on the EASTERN side of the Rockies. I used to live in Lake Havasu, AZ, and I had the same situation there, I couldn't watch Arizona or Arizona State, I went to Arizona on a football scholarship.
SO, this is the fare I was offered yesterday from those BRILLANT idiots at the networks:
CBS:
Mississippi State at Texas A&MLSU at AlabamaVirginia at North Carolina

ABC:
Florida State at Wake Forest, Nebraska at Michigan, Notre Dame at Pittsburgh

Nothing on NBC, I did get to watch the BYU/Wisconsan slaughter courtesy of the Eastern Sports 
Programming Network. 

FOX Network:
Texas at West Virginia
Fox Sports Network:
Kansas at Oklahoma State

 I don't get to watch Utah any more because they are on the PAC 12 Network, which we don't get, once in a while ROOT shows a Mountain West game, but I mostly never get to see Utah State or Weber State games, forget Idaho, it doesn't exist other than when Boise State played BYU, it's just irritating as hell, I've emailed the networks til I was blue in the fingers and can't get an explanation of why they decided I want to watch this other bull crap, sigh.

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