Thursday, September 19, 2013

STOCK PICK FOR THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2013
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SCTY - long trade
First what I saw was daily reversal pattern. We can see that selling pace in to daily low around September 4th was much weaker then bounce after that. Also we can see higher volume on bounce. That is signal for reversal pattern. After that SCTY started with consolidation under daily 50sma resistance and now is plan to see buying continuation. On the 60 min chart we can clearer see that consolidation and if we will see setup I like that SCTY stay above 20sma support line. On the weekly we can see that first need to deal with 10/20sma resistance areas but strong daily bounce and volume give me hope that will be case. If we look monthly chart we can say that is try for buy after pull back and daily and 60 min chart give us with triangle pattern that possibility. First target will be $40 area, but if pace after setup will be good I will watch for $45 area what is previous daily high and equal move.
Trading plan:
Entry:  $37.05
Stop:     $36
Target area:  $40-45 area
Type:  Swing trade


STOCK PICK FOR MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2013
WHR
On the weekly time frame we can see clear flag setup possibility and bounce from 10sma support area. If we will look only weekly time frame then ideal stop will be under previous week low, but that is not small stop. In that case I’m going to smaller time frames in hope that will find something good. Daily and 60 min chart show very similar situations. We can see on the both time frames bigger and smaller consolidation. Of course we can use smaller consolidation for trading plan, but we must know that will increase stop risk and it will increase reward possibility. Entry is clear and it is above Friday high. For stop it is question. What is better to use stop on daily chart and it is under Friday low or use 60 min small consolidation low? If I will use 60 min consolidation low then if WHR will see setup right after 5 min then we could see false breakup situation and back to 60 min 20sma support and bounce. Because of that I will use stop under 20sma 60 min and if setup won’t be right after open then I will move it higher. With other words if 60 min range will hold then I will use it for trading plan.
Trading plan:
Entry:  $137.30
Stop:     $135.75
Target area:  $140-150 area
Type:  Swing trade


"The Chart Swing Trader's" video of ideas for the week ahead:

UH OH!! When two of the last of the long standing Mega Bear's, Doug Casey and Gary Shilling, start throwing in the towel and turn into raging Pollyanna Bull's, IT'S TIME TO SELL EVERY THING AND GET THE HELL OUT OF DODGE, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!


Chris Ciovacco in his video below mentioned a couple of times about the importance of the material sectors breaking out lately, he talked about both XLB and IYM, so I checked out the basic materials sector in FinVIZ, there's 603 stocks in it and the results above are the top 20 gainers over the last month, they range from a gain of 119% for MEIL down to a measly 26.5% for MXC. 
Two things stand out to me, number one is that with the exception of GDP they are all penny stocks as shown in the red box. Number two, and what I find very interesting, is that 16 of them are Oil and Gas related, 11 of them show up on the second page, I mean, I mean, I'm not sure, but wasn't the explosion of oil and gas in 2008 one of the primary causes of the great Recession????



The big wiener's this week were mostly the Udder World thingey's, especially the ones that were the worst performers over the last half year, like Turkey up 7%, Thailand 6%, India 5%, our big major Index gainer was the stogie old DOW, with the DIA up 3.09%, beating out even Brazil. The IWM was up 2.36%, SPY 1.98% and the surprise lager's were the NasDOGS, QQQ up 1.46%.


There was only 12 loser's, after the VXX it was any thing precious metal related, GDX down 8.5%, SLV 6.74% and GLD 4.72%. The worst Country ETF was Chile, -1.46%, followed by Peru, -1.10%, with Canada basically flat. Bonds were actually higher, TLT up .49%, as the ten year yield eased off this week by 1.36%, closing at 2.898% ahead of the FED next week. 


Like I said, the $NYSI went to a new buy signal, it didn't exactly blast higher, but it is what it is. 


The gain's on the $NYAD's were all on one day for the most part, and spent the rest of the week in the infamous "consolidation" mode, just like the market which blasted higher Monday and then fell asleep the rest of the week.

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